AA - lots of callers and bet into on flop. What to do?

[Borax]

No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
10 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $89.20
UTG+1: $33.45
UTG+2: $98.80
Hero: $112.60
MP2: $49.35
MP3: $115.00
CO: $101.50
Button: $98.15
SB: $130.70
BB: $155.45

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is MP1 with A A
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, Hero raises to $6, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, 2 folds, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: 7 6 Q ($31, 5 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 bets $15, Hero

Reads:
UTG+2: PT 13/4 (500 hands)
MP3: PT 25/12 (154 hands)
SB: PT 35/13 (70 hands)
UTG: only 5 hands, no read.

[Fnord]

I call because folding to a single barrel here hurts too much and 2 outers are fun. On a good day I would fold. If I'm not 40 tabling, then I would pull up PT on this guy and take a quick look at some hands. This really really really reeks of a set.

Board: Qc 7s 6h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.460% 40.46% 00.00% 7210 0.00 { 77-66, AQs, KQs, QJs, AQo }
Hand 1: 59.540% 59.54% 00.00% 10610 0.00 { AcAs }

Has he shown down any small pairs or AQ kinda stuff from EP? How good is his bet sizing and follow-through?

[EricE]

I don't see how we can put him on a set. His raise % is 4 so it is very possible he didnt raise from UTG+2 with AQ or KQ. I see that more likely than a PP that hit.

[Fnord]

This guy is so tight/passive that we need to discount KQo.

He just led 1/2 pot into the PFR and a couple kinda fishy players with a pre-flop range something like JJ-22, AK, Jacks or better suited, maybe AQ, maybe Tens or better suited. A litte more data here would help A LOT.

This is almost never a bluff, he's too weak. Either he's testing his hand on the cheap or he really wants action. Re-raising to test him is kinda awkward given the stack sizes and will blow him off his weaker hands.

[Reidak]

Eric, he never made a preflop raise, he limp called. So should we not be thinking in terms of his 14% VPIP range? Does that not include 67Q's? And this bet.. I don't think this bet ever intends to fold to a shove. This just looks like a pot builder on a really good looking flop for any set

[Borax]

This guy is so tight/passive that we need to discount KQo.

He just led 1/2 pot into the PFR and a couple kinda fishy players with a pre-flop range something like JJ-22, AK, Jacks or better suited, maybe AQ, maybe Tens or better suited. A litte more data here would help A LOT.

PT data on UTG+2:
Total hands: 456
Vol put in the pot: 12.94
Won WSP: 39.13
Amount won: 20.45
Went to SD: 33.33
Won at SD: 47.83
PF raise: 4.17
Flop AF: 3.60
Turn AF: 1.50
River AF: 5.00
Total AF: 2.90

Else I haven't seen much from him in EP, besides a hand where he put in a 1-3.5 raise with TT from UTG+2 in an unraised pot.

[Rondavu]

I call here because this villain will fold the entire losing range to a raise, and the turn will be easy to play. Villains hand will be more easily defined. This would be harder to play on a more coordinated board.

[Vrax]

If villain checks blank turn, do we bet? How much?

If villain bets $45 on turn, do we fold?

If he bets $25 on turn, do we call and call another reasonable VB on blank river?

[Borax]

If villain checks blank turn, do we bet? How much?

If villain bets $45 on turn, do we fold?

If he bets $25 on turn, do we call and call another reasonable VB on blank river?

I asked myself the same questions during the hand. Anyone with good answers?

To the first question I would say no, we also check.

[Borax]

How the hand played out:

No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
10 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $89.20
UTG+1: $33.45
UTG+2: $98.80
Hero: $112.60
MP2: $49.35
MP3: $115.00
CO: $101.50
Button: $98.15
SB: $130.70
BB: $155.45

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is MP1 with A A
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, Hero raises to $6, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, 2 folds, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: 7 6 Q ($31, 5 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 bets $15, Hero folds, 2 folds, UTG raises to $30, UTG+2 raises all-in $77.8, UTG calls all-in $53.2.
Uncalled bets: $53.2 returned to UTG.

Turn: 2 ($138.8, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $186.6)


River: 4 ($138.8, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $186.6)


Results:
Final pot: $138.8
UTG+2 shows 7 7
UTG shows 6 6

[varena]

nice fold.

[Lithium]

nice fold.

The way it played out, nice fold, but it is a crappy fold with the information he had at the time.

The overpair is way too strong to fold for an almost PSB. You have to call, unless you are going to fold every overpair to a flop bet ahead of you, and if you do that, you lose way too much value over the long run. You can't put anyone on a set (and quite frankly a set should almost always check that flop given the preflop action). You may somehow be able to put one of the players on two pairs, but you still have a decent draw with your aces against two pair. Most likely it is TPGK, or a pocket pair 10s or above.

Now, when the raise and re-raise happens, you can probably let it go, but not until then.

[Fnord]

The way it played out, nice fold, but it is a crappy fold with the information he had at the time.

Most likely it is TPGK, or a pocket pair 10s or above.

What range are you putting him on?

[Chopper]

i like the description of the half psb donked into a multiway field after limp-calling pf. i noticed that, and thought "set," maybe 67s dumb enough to play oop.

i ran a range of 67s, 66+, AQs+, KJs+. not the most realistic range, but you CRUSH it, especially against two villains. i dont know if this was the correct play most times, it just looked like it.

how bout this one...

you have AA and 3bet villain who is a bit aggro, but has seemingly a tighter 3betting range. flop comes 678, 2 diamonds. you donk full pot and get minraised?

you......

[Borax]

nice fold.

The way it played out, nice fold, but it is a crappy fold with the information he had at the time.

The overpair is way too strong to fold for an almost PSB. You have to call, unless you are going to fold every overpair to a flop bet ahead of you, and if you do that, you lose way too much value over the long run. You can't put anyone on a set (and quite frankly a set should almost always check that flop given the preflop action). You may somehow be able to put one of the players on two pairs, but you still have a decent draw with your aces against two pair. Most likely it is TPGK, or a pocket pair 10s or above.

Now, when the raise and re-raise happens, you can probably let it go, but not until then.

My thoughts:
With his 13/4 stats I believed he would raise preflop, from UTG+2, most of the time with AA-TT and AK, while he would limp 99-44 and raise/limp AQ. Q7 and Q6 is out of the question, but 76s is slightly possible. He might also limp in from there with KQ but not less. Most likely he holds a pocket pair 99-66 or maybe AQ or KQ. With all the players still in the hand the bet migth be testing the water, but also looks very much like a text book move to get action on a set. I also thought he likely would have checked 99 or 88 in this multi hand. This, plus the players to act behind me, and my intuition.., told me very strongly that I was behind at least one player.

[Setzy]

In a 5-way pot somebody could likely have a set, so there's little value in raising into a ton of people. When he bets out $15 I would call, and as it played out when the action got back to me I'd fold.