back to nit....for now

[Chopper]

when i get frisky, i get killed. the only possible answer is: i play post flop real bad. i like to think i'm TAG, but i bet i'm weak/tight. that said, i am reverting on purpose this month...for one whole month...and will reevaluate next year.

i ran a test inside PT. my numbers looked fine. i ran 18/14/3.5 over 20-25k hands. W$SD is 53%. cbet is around 45%. W$WSF is 36%. i steal 21% of the blinds. all the "stats" seem to look fine, from what i read. but, i ran like dogshit. i finished under 2 ptbb/100 for the month. i suppose it could be "running bad," and no doubt a lot of it was, but lets not kid ourselves...theres a shit load of donkey play in there, too.

and, its discipline. i went outside the range of hands i consistently play profitably quite a bit. so, its time to get back to basics. after a bunch of analysis, i found that i should have run about 9 ptbb/100 with the discipline i should have used. thats a lot, obv.

if you care, as this is not an "official" operation, i would like some feedback on some hands. i will also post results throughout the month in here, too.

could use a little encouragement, as confidence is in the shitter currently. after last night, i lost 4 BI's in 800 hands. i looked at my hands individually, and there didnt seem to be much i did wrong. weird cards that only swung one way.

anyway, hands to follow....

[Chopper]

just finished night one. really light night because i did a lot of analysis throughout the day, and that took time.

435 hands...12/6/2...NIT CITY. but, honestly, was also very card dead. i am not tightening up THAT much. i ran 5 ptbb/100, though. so, a modest victory for the night.

hand one...big hand o' night. thought about going for the overcall instead of shoving turn, but didnt want to take chances in a pot that was going to get big.

Absolute Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Absolute-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP ($42.05)
CO ($87.37)
Button ($52.14)
SB ($45.35)
BB ($67.10)
Hero ($19.45)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J, J.
Hero raises to $1, 3 folds, SB calls $0.90, BB calls $0.75.

Flop: ($3) T, J, 4 (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $2.25, SB calls $2.25, BB raises to $6.75, Hero raises to $18.45, SB folds, BB calls $11.45.

Turn: ($41.90) 2 (2 players)

River: ($41.90) 3 (2 players)

Final Pot: $41.90

two...this shithead villain has given me a ton of trouble lately. he runs 30/12/2.5 over 800 hands. lately he has been picking me off every time. i 3bet him earlier...he shoved over. i had position on him earlier, he donked me, i raised with TP, he donked turn full pot next street. usually, these arent "moves," as he 10 tables, but maybe he notices my nittyness. who knows.

i figure he has to give me credit at some point, but he got me again. i cant see this being anything other than a real hand. i post it b/c its the biggest loser of the session. very uneventful night.

Absolute Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Absolute-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

SB ($37.95)
BB ($84.82)
UTG ($55.74)
MP ($46.60)
CO ($64.50)
Hero ($24.70)

Preflop: Hero is Button with , .
3 folds, Hero raises to $1, SB calls $0.90, 1 fold.

Flop: ($2.25) , , (2 players)
SB bets $1, Hero raises to $3.25, SB raises to $19.5, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $8.75

[meeloche]

Maybe a site change might be an idea? Look at it as a fresh start, somewhere like full tilt which does offer rake back and they have a great 100% bonus up to 600$ for first timers basically an entire roll for 25nl. 800 hands is a lot to have on someone at 25nl maybe a site where players don't have 800 hands on you might be an idea. You never know change could be good.

GL with the operation.

[will641]

and, its discipline. i went outside the range of hands i consistently play profitably quite a bit. so, its time to get back to basics. after a bunch of analysis, i found that i should have run about 9 ptbb/100 with the discipline i should have used. thats a lot, obv.

Not to seem disbelieving, but how did you get to this calculation and based on what? was it what an EV calculator said or your estimate or what?

Hand 1: unless im missing something you have the nuts? seeing that you have SB ahead of you a shove is def. right move.

Hand 2: why raise that? you have nothing and you have no draw? unless he has a history of donk leading and then folding to a raise then call and see what he does on turn since its a weak bet, or fold.

[JL]

Hand 2:
I raise those donk bets all the time but never on a board like that.
Even if he is drawing, he is still going to call your raise, so I would just give up on this particular board.

[xyu]

fwiw i run about 18/14 and i cbet a lot more than you. this is in fishy NL$100(sometimes $200) games. I'm a nit, if those are your stats when opening up, what are you playing normally?

if you are trying to open up, make sure it is in position, even if that means junk, i prefer this to trying to get profit from adding marginal hands ep. my position stats are skewed a lot towards btn and co, way more than the double vpip for btn compared to UTG people often recommend. i find this style makes things a ton easier, easy decisions most of the time, and i usually only get trouble when the 24/20 types are 3 betting me. the 20/10's are free money just raising their blinds or ep limps and cbetting.

[Chopper]

i'll try and answer some of the questions. btw, thanks for the responses.

i run about 20/12 normally. i didnt respect position before, and got away with just firing aimlessly at flops....both in position and out. it would disguise my hands that did connect with a flop and monsters alike. i've tightened down because i am trying to get back to basics. to do that i have to start at the very bottom and open up slowly from there, imo. i want my win rates to climb. i say i "used to be" a 5ish at 25NL and 50NL before UIGEA, and 3ish at 100NL...with almost no variance. i dropped down to 10NL after regs, due to bankroll (Neteller) and picked up some horrible habits. i moved back up in August this year only to find the games are a bit tougher, imo. ppl call you down when scared instead of folding, they raise you more often instead of calling, and rip your weakness almost like floating (i dont think most these guys know how to float, though). they still suck, but i cant get adjusted again. so, i went back to the very basics. i also swear i am on an extended run of cool cards and tough situations, but am trying to get past the leaks, too.

hand one...i had the second caller (SB) on the hook for an overcall. i sensed if i pushed, he would fold...if i called the $6.75, he would also call. and i could get them in on the turn. but, didnt want to take chances just in case there was a 89 or KQ hanging around. at least thats what i was thinking when i said i wanted the overcall.

hand two...i was strictly putting his donk bet to the test. like i said, this guy fucks with me, so it feels, and just wanted it noted he cant just lead out and expect me to fold. he HAS to give me credit for at least a Q there, and i cant see him pushing over unless he's got the Q crushed or is really good at reading me. bad spot to bluff? yes, but thats also what makes it a great spot. who bluffs there with air? he simply had something that time, too.

in regards to "how do i know i should have run like that..." see next post...

[Chopper]

the way i looked at my "stats" was...this may get looooong, fyi.

i am going to assume, like me a couple of months ago, no one knows some of the other features of PT.

- i wanted to see how my biggest winners and losers were doing...where i was going right and wrong. i learned to go to the "Game Notes" tab and look at the individual hands. (before, i would only look at the holdings in the General Tab) Open PT. Go to Prefs and select your time frame. Go to Game Notes...and click Get All (upper right corner under Filter). that will grab all your hands instead of the recent 100. now click Net (below Get Next 100 between MGR and BB). click it once and get the winners from biggest to smallest. click again and get your losers, biggest first. Click on the individual HH link (blue) and play it back to yourself. see what you did, when you did it. try and "read" villains hand, too. hopefully, you forgot what he had. THIS HELPS SO MUCH. its also a great way to find which HHs to post on FTR for review.

that got me started on individual hands, not holdings. and helped.

-but, another thing i have done is created a "filter" in the General Tab for my "profitable holdings." these are hands that i DO play well. i created a filter for "marginally profitable" hands, too. these are better used in LP. i can get into detail for setting it up, but it's best saved for another post, and on request.

that will show me, upon demand, how "disciplined" i am staying to my "profitable hands." your General Tab tells you your win rate, including blind deductions. so, i include the blinds in my "filter," too. and i compare what i actually won to what i would have won had i only played inside my "profitable range." and, its always a different/bigger number. however, this month, it was WAY bigger.

my win rate was 2ish. if i took the dollars i "should" have won by playing my "profitable range," and converted those to BB's, and divided by blocks of 100 hands (27k hands = 270 blocks of 100), i would get my win rate HAD i stayed disciplined to THAT range only. and that number was 9.7 ptbb/100. somehow, even with all the beats i take in 20k hands, i bled off 7 ptbb/100. that had me PISSED, and determined to find out where. thats a lot of "quan."

again, i can get more detailed on how i came up with this, but would like to do it only if someone wants to see it, as it would take a good bit of time to put together the step-by-step directions in an organized fashion. (not my strong suit judging from my blathering posts)

[gabe]

both are fine

[Chopper]

i dont know what the damned difference is, but i play a lot better at 10NL. i had the type of night that would have KILLED me at 25, but i repaired the damage and never stopped firing at 10. i even ran two nice read-based bluffs that worked out.

i look at the chips and say, "screw it. i can get that back." and, i dont play like that at 25.

AND, THATS THE PROBLEM.

i ran only 16/10/2.5, but i looked more like 25/18. i raised every pp from anywhere. i raised my gappers late. i cbet almost everytime i even thought i had a chance of taking down the pot.

but, i also caught some cards on the turn. something that hasnt been happening lately.

took a few beats on the chin, went down $15 quickly, but built it back to even in the last 400 hands. and, only because i didnt change my gameplan.

again, something that doesnt happen up a little higher.

maybe we get our mojo back down here for a few sessions, and start taking selective shots while still having some 10's open. hopefully, that will carry the confidence back up higher while slamming away at the 10's. who knows. we'll see.

damn, i can be such a puss.

[Chopper]

ran correctly tonight. played the 10's, though. need to get the mojo back since i obviously play differently when i step up. why? i have no clue. i guess i think they play better, or cant pull the trigger...something.

ran only 600 hands at the 10's. started at stars for 250, got crushed on two horrible beats. one with JJ when i got runner-runner gutshotted while potting 3 streets. other when a blind called a monster 3bet cold w/ 66 and cracked my AA on flop with his set. he called 40% of his stack cold pf w/ 66. didnt stick around long enough to repair damage.

played 400ish at AP tonight and caught some spewtards. made 4 BIs at AP to repair stars' damage, too.

wheeeeeee!! its mental. 10 is easy, but 25 is a bit of a nemesis for me right now. sad, but true.