KTo Preflop decision on FT Bubble

[elipsesjeff]

Reads: I have a suspicion villain is shoving with a super wide range here. I also have a feeling he'll continue to shove my BB down the road. What's your play here? At what % of our stack here are we folding/calling?


Full Tilt (5 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Seat 4: EricF420 (159,543)
Seat 5: Assani Fisher (106,065)
Seat 7: bluffoon (55,036)
Seat 8: CodeRedRulez (151,312)
Seat 9: jbnrock (150,632)

Blinds of 3000/6000/750.

Preflop: Hero is BB with T, K.
3 folds, SB (poster) raises 54286 (All-In), Hero...

[Sprayed]

Since he's under 10bbs, this would appear that he is shoving wide. I think that you can call since KT would be doing pretty well against his range. Plus, you would still be in decent position if you where beat.

[mcatdog]

I don't get it...why isn't this an insta-call?

[badgers]

I don't get it...why isn't this an insta-call?

I'm glad you said this because I was feeling stupid. Aren't good players meant to exploit mental bubbles like the FT by calling here when opp thinks we will be super-tight? I would insta-call up to 100% of my stack here.

[chardrian]

TK doesnt do that well against any range (it's 60/40 vs ATC).

Call is fine, but a fold is fine too. This is so marginal either way for me that it just doesnt matter.

[elipsesjeff]

I don't get it...why isn't this an insta-call?

Not as easy as it looks, I think you need a read to actually make the call, as a large % of players on FTP become a lot tighter on this bubble.

It is about 1/3 of our own stack and if we lose we'll be in a much worse position on the FT and the FT bubble. I'm only getting like 1.1:1 on a marginal call for 1/3 of my stack.

I time-banked and the consensus in vent between chardrian, aapoker and myself was a fold, but a very very close one at that.

But, this is in no way an "easy call."

[mcatdog]

I feel like the converter must have messed up because you and chardrian were there and said fold and the three of us who are just looking at your OP all say insta-call. In the hand you posted you're getting 1.3 to 1 in a blind battle against a SB who shoved 9x, which a lot of people do with almost any two cards. You gave us a read in the OP which implied that he might be one of those guys.

[KoRnholio]

I don't think this is an insta call by any means. It's an insta push if we have the initiative/fold equity. But calling off 1/3 of our stack to an all in with it is a whole different ballgame.

[elipsesjeff]

I feel like the converter must have messed up because you and chardrian were there and said fold and the three of us who are just looking at your OP all say insta-call. In the hand you posted you're getting 1.3 to 1 in a blind battle against a SB who shoved 9x, which a lot of people do with almost any two cards. You gave us a read in the OP which implied that he might be one of those guys.

Pot is t64786, its t58786 to call= 1.1:1

The thing is we don't know if he's one of those guys or not at least at this point. I was thinking about it and if I'm super short (like his stack or less) I'm calling or if I'm super deep (where the call is =< 25% of my stack) I'm calling.

Rizen has this saying: If you are unsure about the play you are making it is better to make a small mistake (in this case fold with no chips in the pot) than make a big one.

I'm also being somewhat results oriented, as my reasoning was I would be able to get my chips in against him with a higher % of equity because of my positional advantage. This was true as I got it in with AQ vs his A9 and A9 vs his K7 in hands to come in later rounds.

I'm still leaning towards calling if I had to do it again, thanks for the input.

[mcatdog]

Well if he has 11 BB then it's a lot closer because people are less likely to shove garbage hands with >10 BB. Looking at your HH though, villain has 9 BB = 55K chips to begin with so it couldn't possibly be 58K to call.

[elipsesjeff]

Well if he has 11 BB then it's a lot closer because people are less likely to shove garbage hands with >10 BB. Looking at your HH though, villain has 9 BB = 55K chips to begin with so it couldn't possibly be 58K to call.

yeah, i cant add/subtract

[johnny_fish]

snap call

[IowaSkinsFan]

With the stack you have i snap.

[chardrian]

Ok now I'm sorta interested.

Pot has 67k. You have to call 54k. So you are getting 1.23/1 odds. You need to have 45% or better equity to make this a +EV call chipwise.

Hand 0: 45.328% 43.46% 01.86% 3438432444 147359670.00 { KTo }
Hand 1: 54.672% 52.81% 01.86% 4177692696 147359670.00 { 22+, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A2o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }

I just made this range up to get 45/55 (it includes any A, any pair, any broadway, and any cards where both cards are above a 9).

So yeah u can pretty easily include other hands in this guy's range which is why a call is fine, but all I was trying to point out is that the BEST you can hope for is to be a 60/40 advantage so a fold isn't that bad of a play.