25NL, straightforward?

[JinxT4]

Looking for some help at 25NL, as I'm having trouble whenever I try moving up overrolled from 10NL. Spoonitnow advised me to post stats in the other HH that I posted, but I'm not sure which to post (I'd guess, VPIP & PFR?). Anyways...

I figured he hit his AK on the turn (didn't put him on an overpair mostly b/c he potted the turn A), so I planned on putting him AI on any non 2/A/K riv. Should I have just pushed the turn if I put him on AK/figured I was ahead, or is it better to wait & get away if a 2/A/K should fall?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed)

MP2 ($38.15)
MP3 ($15.55)
Hero ($55.15)
Button ($4.65)
SB ($25.10)
BB ($4.90)
UTG ($9.60)
UTG+1 ($29.40)
MP1 ($25)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 4h 6h
3 folds, MP2 raises to $0.95, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.95, 3 folds.

Flop: ($2.25) 4d 2h 6c (2 players)
MP2 bets $1.25, Hero raises to $4, MP2 calls $2.75.

Turn: ($10.25) Ac(2 players)
MP2 bets $9, Hero calls $9.

River: ($28.25) 9h (2 players)
MP2 bets $24.2 (All-In), Hero calls $24.20.

Final Pot: $76.65

Results in white below:
MP2 has 9c 9d (three of a kind, nines).
Hero has 4h 6h (two pair, sixes and fours).
Outcome: MP2 wins $76.65.

[spoonitnow]

I'm almost certain that this is a turn raise.

When villain near-pots the turn I want to think that his most likely hand here is Ax unless we're behind, so he's drawing to [at least] eight outs the majority of the time (two A's, three of his kicker, and three 2's that give him a higher two pair). This is enough that we need to protect our hand I would think.

I think you're ahead the majority of the time on the turn unless villain has a set. If you don't get stacked here by a set, you're probably playing too carefully.

(spoiler)

Note that even with villain's hand given, he still has eight outs on the turn (three A's, two 9's and three 2's).

(/spoiler)

[daven]

fold pre.
Flop good.
Turn is complicated. Fold or shove, added benefit is that then you don't have difficult river decisions to make...

[Deanglow]

Fold preflop. Stacks need to be deeper and you need to bluff very often with these types of hands to make this profitable.

Raise the flop huge.
Allin on the turn.
Call the river.

[JinxT4]

Daven - I know fold pf, BUT I figured this was the kind of hand that I could take his stack (& we're semi-deep) with if it hit (lol @ the irony obv). Btw, at what bankroll did you move up to 25NL?

Side note: I figured I should've raised the turn, but when he potted it, it confused me...

Spoonitnow - I know he had outs, that's why I figured I'd wait till the riv to make sure it wasn't an A, K (really put him on AK, or at least AQ, esp with that turn lead), or 2 & I was just gonna push. I figured if 1 of those 8 outs fell, I'd get away from my hand. Also, as I posted above, I'm pretty sure you were the one who suggested that I post stats, right? Assuming it was you: which stats should I post to get more help with my game?

[shazbox]

If he has AK, then he has 8 outs on the river, so why wouldn't you bet anyway while you are ahead. You are a favorite to win the hand so wouldn't it make sense to get all in at that point? I mean, even if you were only 51% to win it still makes sense.

Not betting while you are a favorite is like not raising AA preflop because somebody might flop two pair.

Or am I all wrong here?

[JinxT4]

My logic was that he was putting his money in on the river with AK regardless of the river card. So if his money is going in regardless, I figured it was better to wait since I could get away if an obvious card fell (an A or a 2).

But yeah, you're probably right. That's just what was goin through my head at the time.

Deanglow - how big should I raise the flop?

[shazbox]

If he wants to put his money in on the turn, it is great. But you can still make him put in more of his money.

Also, when the river comes a Q or J, what do you do then? If he has AQ/AJ you are done, but if he has any other ace, he will still bet the same. So it becomes a hard decision to me.

I would try to get as much money in on the turn as I can if I put him on just a pair of aces, and if a scare card comes on the river you can decide what to do then. Raising on the turn might also make him check to you if he hits two pair on the river, thinking that you will bet again. Then you can just check it down.

[daven]

Btw, at what bankroll did you move up to 25NL?

which stats should I post to get more help with my game?

I was doing a LOT of experimenting with my game before I moved to 25nl. Only really started playing there with a bankroll of $1500 = bankroll nit, it was partly due to so much of my profit being due to bonuses, although I was solidly beating 10nl as well. I'm unsure about 50nl - I had one shot and got coolered/badbeat for two buy-ins really quickly. I'll be taking another shot before the new year, with bankroll just under 2k.

As for stats, if you post opp's VPIP and PFR, that gives a huge perspective on the types of cards they are likely to be playing, probably the two best stats to include with the HH

[JinxT4]

Shazbox - You're right. Thanks for breakin it down for me b/c I wasn't thinkin of it that way.

Daven - I thought I was a bankroll nit for waiting till $600-700 to move up. I'm beating 10NL somewhat solidly (well, positive winrate over ~70k hands). Btw, I meant posting my own stats to see what to improve in my game. I don't use a HUD (that's what you'd be using to know opponents' stats, right?).

Thanks to all for the responses btw.

[daven]

if you want to post your own stats for comment then post the following:
VPIP, PFR, W$WSF, WtSD, W$SD, Aggression factor AND frequency by street, Att to steal blinds, fold BB to steal.

I'd also filter before generating these stats to only include full or close to full tables as heads up etc. can skew things a bit. For full ring filter it on hands with 8+ players.

Once you've finished digesting the comment on these stats you should post another thread with your position stats. Don't put both in the same thread, it's too much.

as for bankroll nit, yup, guess I am. Planning to only solidly take shots at 100nl when I have >>$3k from that initial $200 a few months ago. Hopefully early next year...