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I know it doesn't fit perfectly here, but had UTG open pushed (which would be the same result if you push and he calls) with the following range - 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2s+,Q6o+,J7s+,J9o+,T8s+,98s then this is a close fold.
However, as Tai noted there is a chance that he could fold which probably pushes this much closer to a +ev push.
Net net, I think if you were down to 4 people I could see a fold here based on MP's ultra short stack. but with it being 5 people I don't think you can pass up a close edge like this.
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