Bad bubble situation with QTo UTG ($27)

[taipan168]

Reads: Button is 28/17, SB is a decent player (stats 16/9), BB is 22/11.

Shove or fold? If I fold I'm basically dead once the blinds hit me.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (4 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB (t4980)
Hero (t1450)
Button (t6460)
SB (t610)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q, T.
Hero ????

[GatorJH]

I don't see how you can play this, even in your situation. The SB is all-in just posting the blind and ante and even if you push the BB only has to put in a couple of hundred to make the call. Now you are playing a weak hand against two other hands.

Annnnnddddd the button may have picked up and hand and decide to come along also.

I can see the worst happening here where BB and SB beat you and SB beats BB to knock you out in 4th.

I think you have to fold here and play the next hand. If SB wins this hand he may elect to sit out the next one knowing you will be all-in so your chances of playing the next hand heads up are greater, imo, than this one.

[taipan168]

I see your logic, but I can well see a situation where SB FOLDS here knowing that I have to eat the BB next hand and will be forced to make a difficult decision to call the inevitable shove with ATC. If I fold that hand I'm left with 500 chips after posting the SB so I pretty much have to shove it.

Ugly situation either way.

[drmcboy]

the SB putting his money in would be a pretty good result but I don't think we can count on that.

Tai - did he just fold his BB, or did he lose the last pot, or?

[GatorJH]

My bad, I looked at the blind levels wrong in my initial post.

One thing to note though is that, unless the blinds go up, technically you can survive them as well. I know that you would lose all fold equity, but that is something that the SB has to be considering as well.

Drmcboy brings up a good point in how did the SB lose his BB? If he folded to a push or raise that means he may not truly understand push/fold poker and may actually fold his SB also.

[drmcboy]

I am leaning to a fold here because:

they may fold to you next hand

you may end up in against just the SB next hand.

SB may call UTGs shove next hand or get called by the other stack

you may actually pick up a good hand


Also, do you think BB will call this hand assuming big stack folds? I guess if you think he might give it up shoving is better.

Let's all agree to just play MTTs

[GatorJH]

Let's all agree to just play MTTs

LOL - I actually would love to play more MTT's, it just seems like I never have the time necessary to play in them.