5.50 very late (almost bubble) Review

[humanfugitive]

Hey all,

I just stumbled across FTR a while ago and began tirelessly pouring over the forums. I took as much information and tried to apply to some of my games. I'm having trouble figuring out exaclty when to push and when to sit tight when I'm a little on the short side during the late stages of play. This was one of my latest hand:

MP: played very tight rarely pushing for blinds if at all
CO: Solid TT+, AJ+
BU: relatively tight but called all in with TKo once
SB: loose preflop calls but a push over
BB: pretty solid I would think hed call with 88+, AJ+

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (6 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from

Button (t1855)
SB (t1490)
BB (t5392)
Hero (t2043)
MP (t992)
CO (t1728)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7d, 7h.
Hero raises to t2043, 4 folds, BB calls t1843.

Flop: (t4186) 9h, 6h, 6c (2 players)

Turn: (t4186) 5h (2 players)

River: (t4186) 5s (2 players)

Final Pot: t4186

I am wondering if this is the best play. Although I only have ~10bb left, I'm also second in chips.

Thanks for the help!

[taipan168]

Hi and welcome to FTR, it's great to have you here. Thank you for delurking!

You probably already know this but there are tools out there (SNG Power Tools and Sit N Go Wizard) that can help you work out these situations. SNG Wiz has a 30 day free trial.

Anyway, I ran your hand through SNGPT with the following ranges:
- MP: 99+,AQ+
- CO: TT+,AJ+ (note this is a bit of a strange range, does he call with AJ but not 99? If AJ is in his calling range I would expect hands like 77-99 to be as well)
- Button: 44+,A7+,KJ+
- SB: 22+,A2+,KT+,QJ+
- BB: 88+,AJ+

After all of that, your $EV if you fold is $7.57 but your $EV of pushing is $7.65 so this is a +0.2% EV push. Although that seems a bit marginal, I would shove it here but this is the bottom of my range (which would be something like 77+, AJo+, ATs+).

[humanfugitive]

Thanks for the quick reply!

Yes I have heard of SNG Wiz and EV, and although the EV in this case is so marginal, does it only limit me to a push or fold? In this case I don't think I would necessarily push but I would have a hard time mucking it. Is a call or small raise out of the question in a late game like this?

Moreover, I don't seem to be getting an accurate grasp on others' ranges. If I have never actually seen them push/call AI with a hand, how can i define their limits with precision? I'm thinking this skill comes with experience, but I don't understand why you could say that CO's range was weird.

[taipan168]

Yes I have heard of SNG Wiz and EV, and although the EV in this case is so marginal, does it only limit me to a push or fold?

It does seem like a marginal EV situation but SNGs are games of small edges, and if the calling ranges of the players are different then it could be more +EV than this.

In this case I don't think I would necessarily push but I would have a hard time mucking it. Is a call or small raise out of the question in a late game like this?

Yes, with 10x BB you are definitely in push or fold territory. The problem with making a standard raise to 500 or so is that if you get called, the pot will be 1100-1300 so a continuation bet on the flop will be ~600 which will leave you 900 behind - ie. you're pot committed. Calling is terrible here because that's 1/10 of your stack and what do you do if somebody raises behind you?

Moreover, I don't seem to be getting an accurate grasp on others' ranges. If I have never actually seen them push/call AI with a hand, how can i define their limits with precision? I'm thinking this skill comes with experience, but I don't understand why you could say that CO's range was weird.

You do pick it up with experience, but you don't need to be able to define their ranges that precisely. Eg. tight/average/loose is probably good enough. The other thing is that after you've played a lot you get a sense for what a loose player calls with (eg. any ace, any pocket pair, any two broadway cards) or a tight player (eg. only big pocket pairs and AK/AQ). You don't really need to be able to say, "I think he'll call with AQ but not AJ".

[Geanooooo]

I dont shove here from UTG here unless i have like less than 1500. A shove here is pretty marginal but in a regular i open fold it. Also you have over 10bb. So tighten the calling ranges of villains, if im playing it im raising to ~500 and calling shove.

[taipan168]

I dont shove here from UTG here unless i have like less than 1500. A shove here is pretty marginal but in a regular i open fold it. Also you have over 10bb. So tighten the calling ranges of villains, if im playing it im raising to ~500 and calling shove.

I don't think we can standard raise, with just over 10x BB we're too shallow. What's your plan if somebody calls, you're committed after a c-bet.

As I said, at certain calling ranges (ie if they call tight but not super tight) this is only slightly +EV but this gets more +EV as they call looser and at low buyins players tend to err on the loose side. This is at the very bottom of my shove range (ie. I fold 66) but I would shove this here.

[humanfugitive]

Thanks for the input! I started fiddling around with the sngwiz trial and things started to make a lot more sense.