GSFD Shove. Gut?

[Ragnar4]

Hero has 1630 chips blinds at 15/30

Hero is Dealt 7s, 4s
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, CO calls, Hero Calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Pot Size 150
Flop: 3c, 2s, As,
UTG+1 bets 240, CO calls, Hero?

fold? Flatcall? Shove?

FWIW I shoved here. I figgured I was 52%ish to win, and I honestly thought my fold equity was huge here.

[taipan168]

Super easy preflop fold for me, even from the button. Why bother getting involved here?

As played, fold. This kind of overbet is very often a draw or other weak hand trying to push you out - but the thing is that most draws have you already beat.

[TLR]

Fold preflop

Since villian stack is not known it is not clear what the implied odds are

[Ragnar4]

I understand that folding PF is the smart play 99 times out of 100. I decided to gamboool 1 time out of 100.

Please analyze the PF Play. Is it ok to shove when you think your hand has greater than 50% equity in a freezeout tourney?

[drmcboy]

pre flop is fine although your 1/100 'reasoning' is terrible gambler's logic.

If it's a good play this time (I like it) it's a good play every time.

As played, hrm. Heads up you shove this all day. But, getting in against Ax/set and a better FD is a disaster, and with his weird over bet you have to think both of them may call. I don't see why you thought you had huge FE.

Don't call, fold/push seem pretty close to me.

[Shep]

Even though you were in good position, it doesnt justify playing a bad hand. You only have 13 outs, and 9 of them are for a weak flush. If anyone else has a flush draw, your drawing at a 3 outer, since the 5spades kills your hand. Preflop fold is best move, and considering someone already bet the flop, just get away from it.
-Shep!

[Ragnar4]

Even though you were in good position, it doesnt justify playing a bad hand. You only have 13 outs, and 9 of them are for a weak flush. If anyone else has a flush draw, your drawing at a 3 outer, since the 5spades kills your hand. Preflop fold is best move, and considering someone already bet the flop, just get away from it.
-Shep!

pre flop is fine although your 1/100 'reasoning' is terrible gambler's logic.

If it's a good play this time (I like it) it's a good play every time.

As played, hrm. Heads up you shove this all day. But, getting in against Ax/set and a better FD is a disaster, and with his weird over bet you have to think both of them may call. I don't see why you thought you had huge FE.

Don't call, fold/push seem pretty close to me.

Thanx Guys.

2 Questoins. Doesn't a large bet for all your chips create more fold equity? Or should I be open shoving my my locked hands because overbets seem to somehow drop FE? I distinctly remember reading that shoving all in was far more correct with a wider range of hands, versus calling an all in, and my shove with 74s in that situation is more correct than say an AXs call, or even top pair call right?

How is the 99/100 idea bad gamblers logic? I thought as a solid poker player, you should play hands that give you the opportunity to out-play your opponents Post Flop. I saw a speculative hand very cheaply and flopped pretty darn good. I'm willing to admidt I'm wrong, I just want to know why I'm wrong. Not like I'm going to invest money if I miss, and I'll be playing for stacks if I flop 2 pair or better... right?

[TLR]

2 Questoins. Doesn't a large bet for all your chips create more fold equity? Or should I be open shoving my my locked hands because overbets seem to somehow drop FE? I distinctly remember reading that shoving all in was far more correct with a wider range of hands, versus calling an all in, and my shove with 74s in that situation is more correct than say an AXs call, or even top pair call right?

Since villian stack is not known it is not clear what the implied odds are

Since we dont know villian stack we cannot comment about Fold Equity as well

How is the 99/100 idea bad gamblers logic? I thought as a solid poker player, you should play hands that give you the opportunity to out-play your opponents Post Flop. I saw a speculative hand very cheaply and flopped pretty darn good. I'm willing to admidt I'm wrong, I just want to know why I'm wrong. Not like I'm going to invest money if I miss, and I'll be playing for stacks if I flop 2 pair or better... right?

I will try to tackle this one, although it is a tricky question to answer.
The main idea of solid poker play is getting into a pot with the best hand, or with a hand that has a strong potential to turn into a big hand and give us a bigpot (low-mid PP, SC etc...). 47 does not qualify as either of those hands.
Another reason to get into the pot is stealing blinds, which you do not do here, or as a depetive manuaver to vary you game a little bit and make it harder for your opponent to put you on a hand. I assume this is 1/100 idea here.
However in most low limit Sngs (you did not provide the buy in, so I will assume low buy in) opponents do not pay attention enough and you do not play with them often enough for this reason to be a valid one to play.

Regarding your idea of 'outplaying' opponents post flop with a weak hand, it is a very incorrect line of thinking in low limit Sng IMO - In order to outplay your opponents you need 2 things to happen
1. You need to have very good reads on them
2. They need to be thinking players.
I doubt either one of those conditions appear here.

Low limit Sngs are usually won by solid, basic ABC poker repeated over and over again, and not by fancy plays where you outwit and outthink your clever opponents

I hope I will not offend you with the following statement, it may not apply to you, but I think about 99% of the time when someone posts - 'I am playing this crap hand to vary my play once in a while' the real statement behind it is 'I am not patient enough and I feel like playing cards, so I am making up excuses to play this pot'

[Shep]

I agree with TLR. Solid poker is going in with the best starting hand NOT outplaying the two bad starting cards that you did decide to limp in with. Yes you got to limp in with the hand, but unless you flop a monster 'made' hand, which in this case you flopped a 'drawing' hand, you should get away from it.
I also like the statement about the excuses players make for playing bad hands. Its such a true statement for so many players. And the worst part is watching someone win with those hands and think they played well. In the long run, your percentages are against you.
-Shep!

[Ragnar4]

I agree.

I have the discipline, and have exercised it to build a small BR. I pride myself in that discipline.

As for the fact that we can't determine FE and the correct move. Let's say that both stacks were 1500. (which is very close)

FE is something I don't understand very well, (obviously) Does FE go up or down with a higher M? Does FE go up or down with a lower M?

[TLR]

Fold Equity basically has to do with the size of the bet vs the size of the pot.

In order to determine fold equity you have to look at the current size of the pot and the lowest of the stacks between your stack and opponent stack

Lets say pot is 600, your stack is 2000 and villian stack is 3000, so if you push he has to call 2000 into a 2600 pot, and that 2000 represent a massive part of his stack, so he cannot do it without a very good hand, hence you have a lot of fold equity.
Now assume your stack is still 2000, but villian stack is 500, now he has to call 500 to win 1100, he will do it very widely, so you have little fold equity.
Now assume your stack is 500 and villian stack is 3000, he needs to call 500 into 1100 pot, and the 500 is a small portion of his stack, you have very little fold equity

[Monty9]

Boy did this thread hit the nail on the head.

I have been catching myself doing this way too often at the low level Sngs where I am playing right now.

Fire up another table do anything but play rags with the idea that you can out play these post flop. Or the old excuse " It's early so I'll take a chance with these, the blinds are so low, what the heck". Recipe for disaster.

You will usually get stuck, as stated guys don't think all that much so forget post flop tricks. What you get is you playing 74 suited against someother donk playing J6 suited and you'll get busted when you hit.

It's hard enough playing good cards and hands against raggy suck out kings let alow playing rags yourself.

If you hear yourseld saying. " I know I shouldn't call this, but...." then its time to rethink you play.