ICM question - 4th in a 45man

[mcdonough22]

Can someone tell me if this is a call from an ICM standpoint? I've been irritating this guy with a lot of pushing, getting foldouts from the entire final table. When they've looked me up, they guessed wrong. I don't think I lost a showdown. Anyway, what do you do? Payouts are $42, 30, 21, 15.

PokerStars Game #14210765594: Tournament #72123036, $3.00+$0.25 Hold'em No Limit - Level XII (800/1600) - 2007/12/30 - 18:40:55 (ET)
Table '72123036 1' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 4: Froetloeps (21048 in chips)
Seat 7: Ikeananren (14414 in chips)
Seat 8: masmos (13040 in chips)
Seat 9: mcdonough22 (18998 in chips)
Froetloeps: posts the ante 75
Ikeananren: posts the ante 75
masmos: posts the ante 75
mcdonough22: posts the ante 75
mcdonough22: posts small blind 800
Froetloeps: posts big blind 1600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to mcdonough22 [4s 4c]
Ikeananren: folds
masmos said, "weeeeeeee n1"
masmos: folds
mcdonough22: raises 3200 to 4800
Froetloeps: raises 16173 to 20973 and is all-in
mcdonough22: ??????????

[JeffreyGB]

Could you elaborate on how the table has been playing, what they've played back at you with, and specifics as to this guy? All of that is at least as important as ICM here.

[taipan168]

OK, I ran the ICM on this and it is as follows:

- If you fold you will have 14,123 chips worth $25.8
- If you call and win you will have 38,221 chips worth $35.6
- If you call and lose you will be out in 4th worth $15

Therefore, you need to be at least 52% to win to make this a good call. Now what JGB said comes into play, how has he been playing? If he has been liberally shoving over raises with any two cards I would call this, if he's been more selective then I'd fold. If he is shoving over with any pocket pair, any ace and any two broadway cards you're only 49% to win against that range so have to fold.

[badgers]

Just shove it the first time, especially if you're going to fold to a shove.

[FlyingSaucy]

Just shove it the first time, especially if you're going to fold to a shove.

Against the big stack at the table this does not seem appropriate, especially given that he has been pushing a lot recently. There should be little fear of playing this hand with a moderate raise preflop and see what happens. I favor a fold to the push, btw. It is really borderline but I'd say you have better spots to go for it later. I would focus on bullying the smaller stacks yet trying to play as conservative as possible with the big stack on your immediate left.

[badgers]

Ok, so I've been crunching some numbers in a fairly random way...


If you fold you will have 18123 chips worth $27.70 of the prize pool
If you shove and he folds you have 20823 chips worth $28.98 of the prize pool
If he calls your shove and you win you will have 38146 chips worth $36 of the prize pool
If he calls your shove and you lose you will have 0 chips worth $15 of the prize pool

Assume villain to call 20%....

80% of the time we get $28.98= 2318.4 (28.98x80)
11% of the time we get $15 =165
9% of the time we get $35.53 =319.77

$28.03 (All totals/100 for our EV)

Assume 30%

70% of the time it's $29.98 = 2028.6
15.9% of the time it's $15 = 238.5
14.1% of the time it's $35.53 = 501

$27.68

So, unless opp is calling about 30% (55+,A2s+,K5s+, Q7s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,) a shove is good.


I really dislike raise/folding with this size stack because we will often be restolen from very wide, especially with OPs read, but not wide enough to allow calling. Losing 1/4 of your stack in that way isn't great.

It's close, but I would shove.

[taipan168]

Badgers you got Hero and Villain mixed up, Villain shoved over, it's up to Hero to call now.

[badgers]

Badgers you got Hero and Villain mixed up, Villain shoved over, it's up to Hero to call now.

Lol, you had me scared for a minute that I'd just wasted ~ an hour of my life.

I'm advocating open shoving 12 BBs.

[taipan168]

Badgers you got Hero and Villain mixed up, Villain shoved over, it's up to Hero to call now.

Lol, you had me scared for a minute that I'd just wasted ~ an hour of my life.

I'm advocating open shoving 12 BBs.

Ah right, sorry mate, misread your post.

Given there isn't a very short stack around, I probably agree with you but I do think it's close.

[mcdonough22]

Thanks for the replies, guys. Looks like I shoulda just pushed instead of the standard raise. I hate little pairs, they don't seem to be real flips for me late in the game. Guess that's why I didnt push in the first place. He had pretty much what I thought he did (KJ0), but a push woulda given me some FE (though I really thought I had next to none with this guy)