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in a tournament you are very rarely going to have the right implied odds to call with PPs or SCs and play fit or fold.
SCs are interesting because they will partially hit alot more flops. You have a much smaller chance of flopping a made hand (that beats an overpair) than with a set, but you will flop a strong draw (30+% equity) much more often. I think its about 20% of the time. So we could try calling with SCs and going super aggro with a decent draw. The with that is we are still pretty far behind his calling range so we want folds. And if we assume he will fold every time when we go nuclear we are still only going to make a play on 20% of flops.
so 80% of the time we call preflop and check fold the flop for EV of -6.4bb
20% of the time we raise over his cbet and he folds for EV of +6.8bb
So we are only marginally +EV if he ALWAYS folds when we make a play. But in reality we are going to find him folding only say, half the time when we make a play. The rest of the time we are going to be getting it allin as a 30-35% underdog.
so 10% of the time we raise his cbet and he folds. We gain +3.4bb.
10% of the time we are allin with 35% equity. We lose 2.6bb.
So the total EV if we are playing like this is -5.6bbs, which is a pretty hefty loss.
In order to profitably call this 3bet we would need to be deepstacked enough to make him fold overpairs sometimes, or he would need to be fishy and deep enough for us to call and play fit or fold. Thats pretty much never going to happen in a tournament and its unlikely in a cash game.
If hes a light 3bettor, but respects us then it is possible that the gap between his 3 betting range, and his shove-calling range is wide enough that we can profitably shove a hand like 67s/ A5s. e.g. Say he 3bets 22-AA/ATs-AKs/AQ-AK/ KQs or something like that, but he will fold all but QQ+/AK to a shove. Hes 3bettin 9.2% of hands but only calling a shove with 2.6%. That means when we shove he folds 72% of the time. Further, when he calls we still have 31% equity.
So now we have...
72% of the time, we shove, he folds, we pick up 16bbs. EV: +11.52
28% of the time he calls
- 31% of the time we win 104bbs. EV: +9bbs
- 69% of the time we lose 96bbs. EV: -18.5bbs
Our shove has an EV of +2bbs. This gets better as stack sizes get smaller, provided we are no so short that our opponents calling range is not significantly affected.
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