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QQ flops overpair against winning player ($27)

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  1. #1

    Default QQ flops overpair against winning player ($27)

    Opp's stats 16/11/1.2 over 79, he's up almost $9K according to Sharkscope (5% ROI at high buyins).

    Should I have fired again on the turn? I'm honestly not that worried about opp having 8x or 3x as a set. Would he play an overpair like this on this board (99 and TT are the only ones I can think of that I beat since JJ would likely re-raise)?

    Do I call, fold or raise (AI) here?

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

    SB (t1470)
    BB (t1040)
    UTG (t1480)
    UTG+1 (t1850)
    MP1 (t1440)
    MP2 (t1470)
    MP3 (t1635)
    Hero (t1470)
    Button (t1645)

    Preflop: Hero is CO with Q, Q.
    5 folds, Hero raises to t120, Button calls t120, 2 folds.

    Flop: (t285) 7, 4, 5 (2 players)
    Hero bets t225, Button calls t225.

    Turn: (t735) 6 (2 players)
    Hero checks, Button bets t360, Hero ????
  2. #2
    Early tournament, fold it, take a note that this guy may chase with bad odds, you still have 1100 chips, and upping it to 2000 chips while risking your tournament life on a VERY dangerous board isn't worth it.

    Even if he doesn't have it, he might have 2-pair (likely) or a low set (likely). If he's drawing, you make chips off this in the long run by FOLDING here, and taking your imaginary pot-odds money from the flop.

    Only major mistake I can see here is checking the turn; you basically gave him the pot there, I'd bet that against a tight pfr with anything at all, but consider his range:

    Good for you:
    Suited/Unsuited Connecters T9-KQ (stone cold bluff)
    Weird stupid hands like Q9
    Crappy pair (probably Ax)

    Kinda good for you:
    AK (outs to split and outs to hit)
    Kinda Axs especially if the X is an 8 or 3.

    Bad for you:
    Set, straight, 2-pair.

    Major factors:
    Scary ass board
    Early Tournament
    You were the preflop raiser (indicates you not holding 78s or other junk)

    Decision:
    Fold

    Argument for raising:
    You're arguing to your opponent that you have top straight, or at the very least trips and intend to get your equity from hitting your plentiful outs, or that you know he has nothing and can't call. You could raise 500 here and have a stack left, but give him good odds and a reason to push, or you could raise all-in and admit to stacking off with QQ on a 7654 board.

    Arguement for calling:
    See the river? I have no idea why you'd want another card to come down here, nothing improves your hand.
  3. #3
    FlyingSaucy's Avatar
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    Set or straight happens too much here for it to be worth pushing over what appears to be a value bet.
  4. #4
    bet about 180-200 on flop and b/f turn to a raise. dont check this turn OFP
  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Trikflow77
    bet about 180-200 on flop and b/f turn to a raise. dont check this turn OFP
    The reason I didn't bet the turn is because any bet would be pot committing, no? Can I really fire 400 on the turn and fold to a raise?
  6. #6
    FlyingSaucy's Avatar
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    I agree. a check on the turn is good, a push is out of the question imo, so it's either c/f or c/c, and I really don't like c/c

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