KK OOP kinda deep

[Silly String]

MP is active, 33/13/1
only notes over 50 hands say:
will min 3bet KK and then lead multiple streets into cold caller(who was obvious was on set)
will shut down & c/c with TP if 2nd pair trips up on turn

I just can't be sure if he has a set here? Small turn bet, big river bet confused me, b/c a set wanting to get paid does this, but so can a scared TT-JJ? I think TT-JJ check behind river often enough since he has shut down before on scary board.
He told me what he had later, but I don't know how reliable that info is.
Blech, both 3bet pots I posted today were played so weak.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

CO ($283.35)
Button ($143.85)
SB ($187.10)
Hero ($173.80)
UTG ($45)
MP ($154.90)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, K.
UTG calls $1, MP raises to $3, 3 folds, Hero raises to $15, UTG folds, MP calls $12.

Flop: ($31.50) 3, 4, 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $22, MP calls $22.

Turn: ($75.50) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $23, Hero calls $23.

River: ($121.50) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $62, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $121.50

[Muzzard]

3 streets of value IMO, or crai the turn

[Pelion]

wow how do you fold that river?

[bikes]

Why the 5x reraise preflop? Just out of curiosity. If UTG is going to reraise all in he's going to do it no matter what you raise, if you have something mariginal like AKo you save yourself 3 BB.

Why the check/call on the turn? If you think he has the set your only like 5% to hit your king on the river and if you do it probably staves off your action.

I think bet/fold on the turn would have been a much better line, if he has the set he's raising you here.

As played 1/3 pot on the turn and 1/2 pot on the river looks like a very scared pair of jacks or 10's. Maybe even an AKs or few other air possibilities as he probably sees your check on the turn and river has huge weakness. I definately would have called here.

[Silly String]

Thanks for the insightful response Pelion. I know I F'd it up, and that is why I posted it. I'm certainly not proud of it, so I thought I'd see what others think.
Bbickes, I raise more as we were somewhat deep and I was protecting from a set hunter. I probably went into the hand expecting the worst. Scared money for some unknown reason.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

silly string,

i'll comment on this more later today but you definitely needed to bet(with plans on folding to a raise) on this turn. With how you played it, it's a huge mistake to fold that river. you need to be ahead 1/4 of the time, and you will be ahead like more than 80% of the time.

Also i like your rr size pre, especially against someone who isn't going to look into it too much like this loose passive. It gives you a nice SPR for a hand like KK.

[bigspenda73]

actually I like the river fold, I don't see what he's valuebetting worse and it's hard to believe you were floated then double-barreled in a 3bet pot deep.

I'd just b/f turn and then probably c/f or c/c river depending on how I felt.

Also, I hate PF sizing, just too much, 3bet wider so you don't have to blow players out of pots with your big hands.

[silu73]

You are loosing lots of value by not betting this turn. Bet turn/ bet river.

[Silly String]

Also, I hate PF sizing, just too much, 3bet wider so you don't have to blow players out of pots with your big hands.

I would agree usually, but I was card dead at this table and I was playing unusually tight. I hadn't 3bet yet and my hand is pretty face up on the flop. (info I should have included in OP) I'm still not convinced my opponent is capable of understanding that. The PFR amount is not normal for me, as you can see from my other posts. I did it to protect against a set in a somewhat deep, iso situation. Do you still think it is bad if it is not my standard play?

Mass, I agree with the bet/fold turn. I don't know why I would ever check that turn, just horrible. But I agree with Spenda, I didn't see who could fire a 2nd barrel into that river. He didn't seem aggro enough to do it with 99-JJ, but that is my best guess.
As I said before, I went into the hand hyper-concerned about a set and it probably caused me to play this weak/bad.
He probably had 99 or some shit hand. He said he had 333, after my inquisition but I have my serious doubts.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

actually I like the river fold, I don't see what he's valuebetting worse

This could so easily be JJ-99 or even just like AK weirdly played.

[Ash256]

The river should've been a formality in this hand IMO.

[Jack Sawyer]

raise $18-ish pre, pot flop, allin turn

[bigspenda73]

raise $18-ish pre, pot flop, allin turn

omg no Jack, $18????

[will641]

raise $18-ish pre, pot flop, allin turn

yeah what? why on earth would you 3bet 6x?

and i pretty much agree with everyone else. bet turn. this may have been said but if you check that turn and he bets that Q, why not make a nice c/r?[/b]

[Chopper]

I hadn't 3bet yet and my hand is pretty face up on the flop.

all the more reason to b/f the turn and shut down on river, imo.

btw, THIS is how you post a "read." not just XX/XX/X...whaddya think?

i love mass's thought/calculation on river odds. you had to know the odds laid were too good to fold. but, that said, what reg lays such great odds when your hand is basically face up? a hand that beats you.

i think it a good fold, but poor mathematically. and, we all know i am not one to buck the maths and go with gut instead...lol.

[bigspenda73]

he's never calling a c/bomb with worse...imo.

[Alexos]

Hmm I'd bet this turn 100% of the time. You opponent is clearly bad and has no idea what hes doing, and theres no reason to fold this river. The river Q is sort of a good hand for his dumb thinking and he wants to value bet TT/JJ. As played you gotta call, i cant believe some ppl are saying fold..

[bigspenda73]

you guys are overestimating the loose passives at 100nl on stars. They aren't capable of light vbetting or multi-street bluffs.

[Chopper]

he doesnt have JJ. he has a SET.

c'mon, you guys are better than that.

[Alexos]

he has a set more than 75% of the time??

[bigspenda73]

he's valuebetting worse 25% of the time?

[Alexos]

a reasonable assumption no?

[bigspenda73]

against this villain after he fires the turn?

[will641]

he doesnt have JJ. he has a SET.

c'mon, you guys are better than that.

are you serious? you really think he as 33-55 way more than 66-JJ or AQ-AK?

[bair]

he def has bluffs and 66-jj here enough to call, and he sounds very bad. and his river bet isnt big, and i would expect more from a set since you could have a queen ez, unless he was trying to induce a raise, which he is def not capable of.

[Ash256]

he def has bluffs and 66-jj here enough to call, and he sounds very bad. and his river bet isnt big, and i would expect more from a set since you could have a queen ez, unless he was trying to induce a raise, which he is def not capable of.

[Seabass]

As played, preflop its your big 3bet that might have given your hand away. It looks like your trying to protect a big pair from the faqt that your abit deep. You need a wider range, not bigger bets to deal with (bad) set hunters.

Then, if you had AK you would prolly try to rep the Q on the turn, when you check call it looks like your trying to keep the pot down, either scared of a set or perhaps of the Q/bigger pair. By taking this line OOP your more or less ruling out any bluff from your range.

Check the turn and your hand is now a bluff catcher, looking scared/prepared at some point to give up vs a semi-unknown. With only 50 hands worth of info to base our remaining play on.

So bet the turn, if he raises you on the Q then your hand is in bad shape. If he only calls, then you can run a c/c line at the river or put in a small value bet.

If its about the river action, the way the entire hand was played, I would call.

If its about the hand in general I would make it 11$ preflop, bet flop, bet turn and any river action is opp dependent.

[Chopper]

c'mon you guys. i understand your desire to play against a "range," but sometimes the writing is on the wall in florescent highlighter ink.

who bets the turn that small? a bluff? NO. someone looking to get paid off...that is completely uninterested in your hand strength. someone trying to induce a raise, too. someone that knows you are likely on an overpair or AK and shut down. either way, they beat what you could have.

if they were actually bluffing, they would come at the pot for much more than half on the turn.

then, a halfish bet on the river? you are getting priced in, not bluffed out.

surely, you guys can see that JJ/AK is WAY more afraid of you than to have the balls to bet that small.

3bet size was fine. OP said why he did it. it was "read based." you guys are recommending a standard, non-adjusted 3bet size. thats not correct. if you have a read on a player, you adjust YOUR game to his holdings.

the problem is that if villain has a pp, and is set farming here, you arent going to raise enough with your 3bet to deter him. you are too deep. sure, $15 gets him to 10X, but he's calling $18 and prolly $20, too. he wants a stack with his set...if it hits, and will drop everything else.

his AF is a friggin' 1. and he "shuts down" when the board gets scary. he didnt shut down, did he? our read suggests he isnt scared at all. he has a big hand, not a vulnerable one.

JJ is so afraid of the trip Q that he checks behind the river fearing a c/r. if villain is going to "make a move" with TT-JJ, he is minraising the turn, which we didnt lead. so, he teased it to induce a minraise for himself.

but, when he bets the river, he is no longer on TT-JJ, imo. its much stronger.

[Silly String]

you guys are overestimating the loose passives at 100nl on stars. They aren't capable of light vbetting or multi-street bluffs.

This is pretty much what I thought when I folded. My read on villain included this nugget: "will shut down & c/c with TP if 2nd pair trips up on turn".
Given my read above, I can't see him firing $62 into the river w/ 99-JJ since he's in position & his hand has showdown value. I would think 99-JJ would check behind and take a free showdown. I figured him for a set, but I still think I made a bad fold.

RESULTS(Sorta):
I asked the villain afterward if he had KK? He didn't respond. Then I asked him again a hand later: "Maybe 33?" To which his response was a simple "Yes". I can't trust that info, but I thought I'd include it as an afterthought for everybody. I still knew I messed up this hand, hence the OP.