JJ on the bubble, SNG Wiz says fold?!?!?!?

[taipan168]

Button's stats 24/11 over 88 hands and BB's are 25/14 over the same number of hands. Setting Button's limp range to 30% of hands and call range to 5% of hands (99+, AQ+), and BB's call range to 3% of hands (JJ+, AK), SNG Wiz shows this to be -1.86% EV. WTF?

Poker Stars No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t100/t200 (Ante: t25)
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t5110
Button: t2780
Hero: t2530
BB: t3080

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is SB with J J
UTG folds, Button calls t200 (pot was t400), Hero raises all-in t2505

[mattiesmat]

WTF indeed.
Easy push for me.
If he had pushed or raised and was commited it might be closer to a fold.

[givememyleg]

LOL, um, sng wiz is incorrect.

[TLR]

Just running some basic retarded math based on your range
BB folds 97% of the time, button folds 83% of the time
hero picks up the pot preflop 0.97*0.83 = 0.808
If hero folds he has 2430 chips left

If hero pushes he has 0.808*(2430+600) + (1-0.808)x(2330*2+700)
when X represnents the probablity of winning if called (assuming only 1 villian call)
even if we assume X=0 (i.e. there is 0% of winning when called) it is still EV+ with those ranges

[taipan168]

Just running some basic retarded math based on your range
BB folds 97% of the time, button folds 83% of the time
hero picks up the pot preflop 0.97*0.83 = 0.808
If hero folds he has 2430 chips left

If hero pushes he has 0.808*(2430+600) + (1-0.808)x(2330*2+700)
when X represnents the probablity of winning if called (assuming only 1 villian call)
even if we assume X=0 (i.e. there is 0% of winning when called) it is still EV+ with those ranges

Because this is the bubble you need to run it with $EV not chip EV.

I'm wondering whether Wiz factored in the chance that if I fold then Button and BB get it AI against each other and go broke or something?

[TLR]

$EV, chip EV, ICM, whichever method you choose I dont see how is this a fold.
I would like to see the math that makes it a fold

[fjuanl]

Buttons PAHud stats suggest that they dont limp 99+, AQ+, which you cant input into SngWiz. I would think buttons limp is not 99+, AQ+ a huge percentage of the time, maybe 90%. From what Im guessing, imputing that opp will call with top 5% of hands doesnt mean opp is calling 5% of the time. Its the percentage that a top 5% hand is in a top 30% limping range, which is probably inaccurate for this opp. Could be completely off there. Either way theres no way this is a fold

[Technooo]

I'm thinking they call lower ranges too to knock you out. You're not that short but still the short stack.

-2% ev is also misleading because it also doesn't translate directly into dollars; winning a crappy flip here sets you up for the bling.

Consider making a standard raise here too, someone might shove over you and I think you can more easily call that with JJ here.

[FlyingSaucy]

I think the problem is that buttons limp range is probably not as loose as 30%.

[Jayou]

I've re-entered the hand in SNG Wiz and I'm getting an EV of 0.96%. It only becomes -EV when the button is limping <20%.

BTW I've got the button calling 2% when the BB calls our shove and when we fold the BB shoving 10% and button calling 5%.

[Rage2100]

Buttons PAHud stats suggest that they dont limp 99+, AQ+, which you cant input into SNGWIZ.

I have found you need to use the EXCLUDE range as well as the INCLUDE range on WIZ in these situations, otherwise it sometimes gives weird results.

For example, on the above hand, if you think the Button's limp range is the top 30% of hands, I would change the EXCLUDE range to 5.5%, giving an opening limp range of 5.5-30%. This allows for the fact that the top 5.5% of hands (99+, AQ+), he would probably raise, rather than limp.

If you now set the Button's calling range to 10.5%, giving a calling range of 5.5-10.5%, it becomes a +EV push. Your Edge setting value will alter the recommended action by WIZ here too.

This is what I do anyway when there are similar bubble situations, I hope it helps everyone.

[SitNGo Wizard]

I'm wondering whether Wiz factored in the chance that if I fold then Button and BB get it AI against each other and go broke or something?

This is exactly what is happening. Look at the “Hero Folds” section of the analysis details and adjust the hand ranges of opponents when you fold. The default ranges are probably too loose, which is increasing your EqF%.