$24 - Qh7h 3h4h5x board v. early

[mattiesmat]

I don't have actual HH, so I will make one.
Stats: he had tight stats and I had a few hundred hands data on him, so he was a regular.
I am not too happy about my raise on the flop.
How would you play it the first time on the flop and on other streets if you call and what would you do second time?

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t40 (9 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

UTG (t1500ish)
UTG+1 (t1500ish)
MP1 (t1500ish)
MP2 (t1500ish)
CO (t1500ish)
Button (t1500ish)
SB (t1500ish)
Hero (t1500ish)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[], 7[].
7 folds, SB completes, Hero checks

Flop: (t80) 3[], 4[], 5[] (2 players)
SB bets t80, Hero raises to t240, SB raises all in for 1340ish, Hero ??

[taipan168]

Personally, this early I call the flop bet and see what comes on the turn and what opp does rather than raising the flop bet.

As played, I would fold - against a tight regular this line screams great strength. I'd expect to be shown a set, two pair or maybe a higher flush draw - all of which you're behind, particularly when you take the ICM effect into account.

[Skeeno]

Ooh yuck ...

I think I'm folding here, yeah we got four 6s well say 3 save the hearts, and possibly 9 hearts. I think he's got you covered here perhaps K6/A6 hearts - yeah he could have a set/two pair/top pair low overpair etc. But I think I fold and pick a better spot.

[Skeeno]

Bleh as Taipan I would probably just call the flop and re-evaluate on the turn. Missed that original question.

[drmcboy]

insta call as played

but I agree you should just call on the flop first time around. Bet any turn if he checks

[taipan168]

insta call as played

I ran the ICM on this assuming that all stacks are 1500 (difference is marginal anyway):

- If we fold we will have 1220 chips worth 9.2% of the prize pool
- If we call and win we will have 3000 chips worth 20.3% of the prize pool
- If we call and lose we are out.

Therefore we need to be (9.2/20.3) = 45.3% to win against opp's range to make this a good call.

The question is, what would a good player lead and shove over a flop raise with? In the range below I included sets, straights, two pairs, 66, A high and K high flush draws and a bunch of top pair plus FD hands and I only get to 42% equity.

Board: 3c 4h 5h
Dead:

equity win tie
Hand 0: 42.241% 41.03% 01.21% { Qh7h }
Hand 1: 57.759% 56.55% 01.21% { 66-33, Ah7h, Ah6h, A5s, A2s, KhTh, Kh9h, Kh8h, Kh7h, Kh6h, Kh5h, Kh2h, Qh5h, Jh5h, Th5h, 9h5h, 8h5h, 76s, 7h5h, 6h5h, 53s+, 43s, A5o, A2o, 76o, 53o+, 43o }

[drmcboy]

pocket pairs

[taipan168]

pocket pairs

Only just if you include all pocket pairs.

Board: 3c 4h 5h
Dead:

equity win tie
Hand 0: 45.522% 44.36% 01.16% { Qh7h }
Hand 1: 54.478% 53.31% 01.16% { 22+, Ah7h, Ah6h, A5s, A2s, KhTh, Kh9h, Kh8h, Kh7h, Kh6h, Kh5h, Kh2h, Qh5h, Jh5h, Th5h, 9h5h, 8h5h, 76s, 7h5h, 6h5h, 53s+, 43s, A5o, A2o, 76o, 53o+, 43o }

[drmcboy]

wait a minute, 5h is on the board... something is wrong

if you get all those suited hands, i get PPs, he has something worse than two pr or combo draw sometimes.

[taipan168]

wait a minute, 5h is on the board... something is wrong

Oops you're right, I made an error. Marginally better in that case.

Board: 3h 4h 5c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.677% 44.50% 01.18% { Qh7h }
Hand 1: 54.323% 53.15% 01.18% { 22+, Ah7h, Ah6h, A5s, A2s, KhTh, Kh9h, Kh8h, Kh7h, Kh6h, Kh5h, Kh2h, Qh5h, Jh5h, Th5h, 9h5h, 8h5h, 76s, 7h5h, 6h5h, 53s, 43s, A5o, A2o, 76o, 53o }

if you get all those suited hands, i get PPs, he has something worse than two pr or combo draw sometimes.

True, that's why I included all the pocket pairs and A5o.

But for the the real question is what would a solid regular lead flop/shove over with on the second hand of the tourney (or whatever this is). I'd say his range is more weighted towards sets, two pairs and combo draws rather than hands like A5.

[bjsaust]

I think we get a few more 5x hands in that range too. Hell, maybe even some 4x and some 6x, unless the 24s are significantly better than what I'm used to.

People HATE to fold a pair on a small card flop like that, they assume everyone else is bluffing. Heck, you can even sneak a % for bluff into his range.

[mattiesmat]

I want to point out again that he had tight stats and at least semi-regular. I don't think he would do this with either a good made hand, a lot of outs or a combo.

[drmcboy]

the stats are pre flop and he completed from the SB, I don't really see them as important.