$16 - AKo on the bubble

[losttrem]

Very close ICM decision. SNG wiz tells me this is a fold if he calls me with more then top 10% hands. Otherwise my pushing range here should be TT+,AKs. Still dont have PT ''. But opp seemed rather solid (apart from him the table was full of maniacs). He has me slightly covered, but I wouldnt expect him to go crazy here with A7 or something as he would be severely crippled if he loses.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed)
Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button (t7190)
Hero (t2525)
BB (t1090)
UTG (t2695)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, K.
UTG raises to t600, 1 fold, Hero raises to t2625,

[mattiesmat]

Hard to say without reads/stats (apart from looks solid).
He may open something like AT+, 88+, KQ if he is solid and call with AQ 99+?
He may open and call wider if he is loose(r), but only you can tell.

[kmind]

AK is a monster. I push happily. We could easily have him dominated or get him to fold which is also nice.

[Im_new]

what's wrong with pushing AK on a bubble?.... wait, this is higher stake than I'm used to playing I suppose.... Well, is it because of the shorty on the bubble that makes this hand more marginal? If all stacks were even, would this be an insta-shove?

[losttrem]

It is def +cEV but it is -$EV if villain calls with more than top 10% hands because of the short stack and the fact that villain has me slightly covered. But I was actually surprised, it is this close with AKo.

[kmind]

It is def +cEV but it is -$EV if villain calls with more than top 10% hands because of the short stack and the fact that villain has me slightly covered. But I was actually surprised, it is this close with AKo.

Weird. Regardless I like to gamble more than others so I can get better than 3rd place so I push.

[bjsaust]

It is def +cEV but it is -$EV if villain calls with more than top 10% hands because of the short stack and the fact that villain has me slightly covered. But I was actually surprised, it is this close with AKo.

Hmm...tough spot. I really find it hard to lay down AK though. Yes he has you covered, but essentially so do you. If he calls and loses he's down to about 2 BBs. On top of that you flip v's a PP, but any Ax hand you dominate if he calls (A8s+ AT+ for loose players say).

[taipan168]

SNG Wiz tells me this is a fold if he calls me with more then top 10% hands.

I can't see that he would call even with the top 10% of hands (55+, ATo+, A8s+, KQs) when you essentially have him covered on the bubble.

My concern here would be that opp could be raising very tight from UTG with a) the big stack around and b) the fact that BB is so short that he is likely to shove over very wide and UTG will be priced in to call.

In a game I probably shove this but it is a very close decision indeed and depends upon reads (observation of prior hands and HUD stats would help here).

[taipan168]

BTW we do all know that if UTG had shoved it, we have to fold, even if he shoves ATC, right?

[kmind]

BTW we do all know that if UTG had shoved it, we have to fold, even if he shoves ATC, right?

as in open shoved? and why? because we can still lose and be out of the money?

[drmcboy]

yes, icm ftw

[bjsaust]

Damned ICM. Unfortunately for all Taipans posts on that situation, I still had to learn the lesson the hard way.

A few times.

[kmind]

so it sucks to have the mindset of "we have a monster, let's gamble with odds on our side to win as much as possible"? Serious question. Is it all just about being in the money? I understand that we can fold and be in fine shape but in most cases I like to take chances when I have lots of equity

[taipan168]

so it sucks to have the mindset of "we have a monster, let's gamble with odds on our side to win as much as possible"? Serious question. Is it all just about being in the money? I understand that we can fold and be in fine shape but in most cases I like to take chances when I have lots of equity

Gambling is fine, but you need to realise that you don't have odds to call here because of ICM. I'll run it below (assuming UTG open shoves):

- If you fold you will have 2425 chips worth 24.1% of the prize pool
- If you call and win you will have 5250 chips worth 36.3% of the prize pool
- If you call and lose you are out in 4th place.

Therefore, you need to be at least (24.1/36.3) = 66.4% to win to make this a good call. Against two random cards, AKo is only 65.3% to win so calling here is -EV.

Note that ICM circumvents the who play to win/play for ITM discussion because it takes that into account.

[kmind]

thanks, don't know much about the ICM but that proves it.

[fjuanl]

Without any reads on the player I would probably push. I think most people are calling with less than top 10%, more like 6%

[taipan168]

Without any reads on the player I would probably push. I think most people are calling with less than top 10%, more like 6%

I think it is also dependent upon his open raising range here. If he is open raising 5% and calling 3% then I doubt it is +EV to push.

[drmcboy]

I would guess AK looks at least a few points better against a more reasonable shove range since you'll be dominating a lot more often than against ATC.