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Did i get lucky, or just a better standard of play?

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  1. #1

    Default Did i get lucky, or just a better standard of play?

    Hello all,

    This is my first post here, I’ve been reading posts/strategies on this website for a year or so now.

    I started playing poker 2 years ago with friends and since I turned 18 a few months ago I decided to put 100 dollars into Pacific Poker.

    Sit and goes fast became my favourite style of play, and I’ve won a few, placed second and third a number of times too playing at $2.50 and $5.

    But ultimately (combined with a few ring games and multi tables just to experiment a little) I found myself at $50.

    I did notice that each time I did bust out, it was mostly too a bad beat due to questionable play from the other player, and a few times I did get outplayed.

    So I decided to do the one thing I read countless times on this website not to do, I upped my stakes to $10 sit and go, and played outside what my bankroll could handle in hope of finding players who respected bets a bit more.

    But it worked, I played 4, 10 dollar games so far and managed to place in the money in all them, with 2 second places and 2 third places.

    In one of the games I went into a heads up situation with 10000 chips versus his 2000 and unfortunately got a bit unlucky. Lost a KQ to KJ, and then lost an A10 to Q7, followed by him taken it with a runner, runner straight. Which I didn’t mind too much because I was just happy to actually have more money than what I started with.

    But anyways my question is this, (this post did have a point ),

    Should I stay at the 10 dollar level, but put more money in to support my bankroll, or do I need to successfully master the 5 dollar level first?

    Did I get a run of lucky cards and let this fool me or is it possible 10 dollar works better for me?

    Is it silly to start at 10 dollar stakes?

    Sorry for the long post, and thanks for your replies
  2. #2
    bjsaust's Avatar
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    I dont believe theres a big difference between the $5.50s and the $11s. You're having a run of positive variance now, v's a run of negative variance previously. Thats SNGs for you . If you can afford to roll yourself for the $11s, do it. Just make sure whatever your roll is, you play within it.
    Just dipping my toes back in.
  3. #3
    Hi and welcome to FTR, it's good to have you here!

    What level you play at depends on how much money you have to commit to poker and be prepared to lose without hurting your real life. If you want to play $11 tourneys then you should have a bankroll of at least $330 so I would deposit to that level. If you can't deposit more, I would strongly suggest sticking to the $5.50 level until your BR is $330. It is completely untrue to say it is easier to beat the $11s than the $5.50 - at worst they would be the same standard.

    I suggest reading the post on bankroll management and also the FAQs stickied at the top of this forum for recommendations.

    Quote Originally Posted by NoFxRAgNaRoK
    So I decided to do the one thing I read countless times on this website not to do, I upped my stakes to $10 sit and go, and played outside what my bankroll could handle in hope of finding players who respected bets a bit more.
    Nononononono this is wrong. This whole concept of "players respecting your bets a bit more" is really misleading. Sure, they might fold a bit more to your raises but they will also be tighter and more aggressive meaning that when you get in a pot with them YOU are less likely to stack them.

    Quote Originally Posted by NoFxRAgNaRoK
    But it worked, I played 4, 10 dollar games so far and managed to place in the money in all them, with 2 second places and 2 third places.
    Nice results, but one thing you gotta realise is that this is a microscopic sample size, you need to play many hundreds of SNGs just to see whether you are a winning player and many thousands to get a good idea of your ROI.
  4. #4
    Thanks for the posts, next month i think i will start fresh and enter with $330 like you recommended, and stick to 10 dollar only to see how i do.

    Also, any site you recommened for sit and go tournaments, i notice theres little mention of pacific poker on here, and seeing as ive already used my bonus up here, maybe another site would be better?
  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by NoFxRAgNaRoK
    Also, any site you recommened for sit and go tournaments, i notice theres little mention of pacific poker on here, and seeing as ive already used my bonus up here, maybe another site would be better?
    Stars and FT are usually the places that I'd suggest, and both of them have good first deposit bonuses. Make sure you sign up for rakeback before you sign up for FT though.

    At the $11 level pretty much any site will have decent traffic and soft games, however.
  6. #6
    Hello NoFx and welcome on the forum.

    Concerning the websites where you can play, you will see many people talking about Pokerstars. It is a great choice, because there is always a SNG ready for you to play in. It is the site with the most people playing. If you decide to play on Pokerstars, you should try to get the best sign up bonus. You may be able to find better offers, but I tested this one and I am very satisfied: http://www.pokerlistings.com/poker-stars

    I also play on Everest Poker, and the very slow blind structure allows a patient, serious and TAG player to have greater chances of cashing. However, this has a cost as there are less people playing at a given time , and the games are slower, and this could be less $/hour.

    About your starting bankroll, the 330$ figure stated by Taipan is good, but be aware that it is a minimum. I built my roll from 90$ to 450$ but I still play the 5.50$ sngs, and intend to do so until I reach at least 550, and maybe more so 600. So it is up to you if you wanna take more or less risks. After being a foul myself and playing under rolled for the first months I played poker, I can tell you that playing well within bankroll management rules helps a lot in improving yourself.

    Good luck, and post hands !
    Yes.
    No.
    I dont know.
    He doesnt mean it,
    But he acts like he does.

    Karnouk <-- beginner, so take it with salt
  7. #7
    Karnouk, there isn't that much difference in the standard of play between $5.50s and $11s, if you managed to beat the $5.50s at that rate I would definitely move up and play $11s. By not moving up you are delaying the speed at which you build your bankroll.
  8. #8
    eheh thanks taipan for the advice. But i am still a bit unsure about my win rate actually. As I said I currently play on Everest. Unlike many posters here I dont have a huge volume of play.

    Here are my records for my "career" on Everest (6 max SNGs):

    I played 66 2.50 + 0.25 with an ROI of 32%
    I played 70 5.00 + 0.50 with an ROI of 45%

    I think you would be the first person telling me that this sample size is way too small wouldnt you?

    So that is why I prefer to stick at the 5.50s for now. Also, I tend to follow the 50 buy ins rule for Bankroll, so I am under rolled for 10+1.
    Yes.
    No.
    I dont know.
    He doesnt mean it,
    But he acts like he does.

    Karnouk <-- beginner, so take it with salt
  9. #9
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    I dunno, by 136 sngs an ROI of 39% is already telling you you're very likely to be a winning player; it's just not guaranteeing it

    I would recommend our original poster roll himself up for the $5.50s and grind up to, say, $400 before moving up. I am not convinced he's a winning player yet - well, he's not, his BR even with these 4 cashes is only back to its original level - and I just feel that he's not experienced enough to deal with the financial losses, and losses in confidence, that the inevitable variance at $10s will lead to.

    (IMO, the $5s are definably easier than the $10s, not by a vast amount but enough for a new player to win at the $5s and lose at the $10s)
  10. #10
    I would say that it is a small sample size, but there's no need to play 5000 $5.50s so you can convince yourself you're a winning player! I would make the move up to the $11s, and if you drop below a certain level which you set in advance, then drop back down to the $5.50s.

    The reason to have a certain number of buyins in your BR is to guard against the possibility of going busto because of the variance inherent in poker. However, at low buyins where the play is terrible (and therefore decent players can achieve a good ROI), you need less buyins because your ROI is higher. Conversely, at higher buyins and at games where the ROI is generally lower (like turbos) you need a bigger BR to compensate.
  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by karnouk
    I also play on Everest Poker, and the very slow blind structure allows a patient, serious and TAG player to have greater chances of cashing. However, this has a cost as there are less people playing at a given time , and the games are slower, and this could be less $/hour.
    About Everest Poker bonuses, here is imo the best offer: http://www.twoplustwo.com/bonus/everest.php?UID= , though I personnaly didnt manage to get it. And if you sign on Everest, ask someone on this forum to refer you (for example pm me ). It doesnt give you anything more, but it does give a small bonus to the person who refered you .
    Yes.
    No.
    I dont know.
    He doesnt mean it,
    But he acts like he does.

    Karnouk <-- beginner, so take it with salt
  12. #12
    bjsaust's Avatar
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    ROI etc is all well and good, but the decision to move up should be based on your BR. In reality, especially at lower stakes, if you're a winning player with a decent ROI you'll never have a decent sample size to prove that ROI before you're rolled to move up.

    Just remember the golden rule, set yourself a limit at which you move back down and stick to it!
    Just dipping my toes back in.
  13. #13
    This thread got me thinking about finally making the move to the next level. I have been playing the $5.50 SNGs at Pokerstars for awhile now. I didn't have much success when I first started, basically hanging around even but lately (thanks mostly to this site ) have been doing better.

    I would say my bankroll is around the middle of what appears to be acceptable for moving up to the $11 games. I usually play 3 SNGs at once, so I am thinking that perhaps instead of playing 3 @ $5.50, I should start playing 2 @ $5.50 and 1 @ $11...would this be a good way to make the transition to the next level or should I stick to playing all the games at the same level?
  14. #14
    Ragnar4's Avatar
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    How in the world do you have an ROI of 45% at the 5.50's and an ROI of 32% at the 2.50's... yet you found yourself at 50 bucks. Did you blow it all on Blackjack?
    The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than average. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their mistakes
  15. #15
    bjsaust's Avatar
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    Different posters Ragnar .

    Mikeneron, one of the great ideas I've read if you're unsure about making the step up, is to "freeroll" shots when you win at your current stakes. A $5.50 win is $22.50? So if you're three tabling, if you get a 2nd or third as well as a win, then jump in and play two $11s or something.
    Just dipping my toes back in.

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