$27 - QQ on Kxx board, facing overbet

[mattiesmat]

Wellll?
No reads.

Poker Stars $25 $2 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (MP2): t1395
CO: t1580
BTN: t1385
SB: t1700
BB: t1500
UTG: t1500
UTG+1: t1500
UTG+2: t1500
MP1: t1440

Pre Flop: Hero is MP2 with Q Q
2 folds, UTG+2 raises to t40, 1 fold, Hero raises to t125, 4 folds, UTG+2 calls t85

Flop: (t280) K 6 8 (2 players)
UTG+2 bets t500, Hero??

[GatorJH]

I think you are ahead here WAAAY more often than behind. I would push over this raise.

[bjsaust]

Geez...

Normally I'd read that overbet as a draw, but unless he's coming along with 57s I cant see that.

I think I fold. The min-raise pre then overbet on the flop screams PP, its a question of whether its AA looking to get paid by AK, or JJ spitting the dummy.

[taipan168]

I raise more preflop, I make it 140-160 to go rather than 125.

As played, I shove over. As somebody said, I need a hotkey to write the phrase, "This kind of overbet is very often a weak hand that does not want a call, like a draw, underpair to Ks or even A8/A6."

[mcatdog]

don't fold good hands to idiots

[bjsaust]

I need a hotkey to write the phrase, "This kind of overbet is very often a weak hand that does not want a call, like a draw, underpair to Ks or even A8/A6."

Well, I guess I have the first part down, just need to get the rest.

I get your point mcatdog, my concern is that even idiots turn up with good hands sometimes.

[GatorJH]

I need a hotkey to write the phrase, "This kind of overbet is very often a weak hand that does not want a call, like a draw, underpair to Ks or even A8/A6."

Well, I guess I have the first part down, just need to get the rest.

I get your point mcatdog, my concern is that even idiots turn up with good hands sometimes but not every time.

FYP

The nuts are not always just around the corner.

[bjsaust]

Yeah, I know. But if we're putting villian into the idiot category, can we discount him all of the time? One place thats got me into trouble before is giving opps too much credit. For instance in this hand I think 'if he had a hand, he'd c/r or value bet, this must be a bluff', whereas sometimes it turns out the opp is just wetting himself since he hit TP and is just playing badly, except when I pay him off I stop and wonder if he really did play it badly since I gave him what he wanted.

[drmcboy]

I would not fold, but I might just call here and then call/shove turn. But, this such a weird play I can see just shoving because who knows, maybe he'll fold second pair getting whatever huge price he'll have.

BJ - don't forget that if he has KT here and you pay him off with QQ, you also get all his chips when you have KJ+. You can't evaluate his play against your hand but against your range. Also, if he had checked you might have bet AQ, etc, etc

[bjsaust]

True .

[Geanooooo]

Although his over bet looks weak, I always see Kx here. Even though his range includes lower pairs, I think it has more K's in it.
I hate a shove, because he probably folds all smaller pairs and calls only when we are beat. If I am continuting this hand im taking Drmcboys line and flat calling and getting it in on the turn.

[GatorJH]

what hand would he fold to your push bet to on the flop but lead out and/or call your push on the turn with?