$27 - AK facing RRAI from reg

[mattiesmat]

Villain is a winning regular who knows my range is pretty tight here.
I think his range is something like JJ AK.
Enough overlay?

Poker Stars $25 $2 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t25/t50 Blinds - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BTN: t1755
Hero (SB): t1365
BB: t1420
UTG: t2265
UTG+1: t1975
MP1: t315
MP2: t3095
CO: t1310

Pre Flop: Hero is SB with A K
UTG calls t50, 4 folds, BTN calls t50, Hero raises to t250, BB raises to t1420 all in, 2 folds, Hero calls ??

[GatorJH]

yuk - I hate getting it all in this early with Ace high.

Now if they were soooooted -

[drmcboy]

Insta call, you are a flip vs that range, I don't understand the post.


gator - 'early' is a word you need to remove from your vocab, it isn't relevant at all, except that we aren't close to the bubble, which should make you more, not less, likely to call.

[Ragnar4]

Are you sure you're a coinflip? JJ = coinflip, QQ = coinflip, KK =dominated AA = hardcore dominated AKo = freerollin AKs =4% dog

Seems like Hero is only like 40% to win here.

[drmcboy]

100 % sure

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

308,214,720 games 0.005 secs 61,642,944,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.073% 24.34% 28.73% 75021996 88555674.00 { JJ, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 46.927% 18.20% 28.73% 56081376 88555674.00 { AKo }

[Geanooooo]

Easy call.
after raising 5x pf im not going to fold here against his range.

[taipan168]

ICM on this:

- If you fold you will have 1115 chips worth 8.8% of the prize pool
- If you call and win you will have 2830 chips worth 20.1% of the prize pool
- If you call and lose you are out.

Therefore, you need to be 44% to win against opp's range to make this a good call.

drmcboy, you missed the + after the JJ in your pokerstove calcs:

equity win tie
Hand 0: 39.785% 23.66% 16.13% { AKo }
Hand 1: 60.215% 44.09% 16.13% { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

On this basis, and assuming that your read is right that opp's range is JJ+, AK then this is a fold.

[GatorJH]

If you add TT and AQs to the range though it is a fold.

Edit - In other words, this is not an "easy push".

[FlyingSaucy]

Yea there's no way he's pushing AA KK there, you are on a flip at worst. Double or bust now is better than folding and bubbling later.

[taipan168]

Yea there's no way he's pushing AA KK there, you are on a flip at worst. Double or bust now is better than folding and bubbling later.

Why does he never push AA or KK here?

[FlyingSaucy]

OK, not never. But a lot of folks will do a smallish raise just so that they can guarantee a big pot on the flop and get the rest in.

[taipan168]

OK, not never. But a lot of folks will do a smallish raise just so that they can guarantee a big pot on the flop and get the rest in.

Against a multitabler who has 10+ other tables beeping at him, I can't imagine that he would re-raise less than all-in and have to play postflop. Also, if he knows that OP is a winning multitabling regular, he knows that OP's range is tight enough such that he's going to call a shove quite a bit but may give up on certain flops if BB just flats preflop.

[drmcboy]

ha, drinking and posting -EV

I don't like range but I guess if that's your range. Me I just toss AQ in there and call and be happy. He's never bluffing here? If you say he "knows my range is pretty tight here. "
I can say he know your range SHOULD be tight here, so you can raise wide, so he can shove AQ. weee! You guys will have to work harder to prove this is a fold.

[mattiesmat]

He does not do this with AQ or Tens I am fairly sure.
Also he WILL shove with Aces/Kings since it looks weaker (to me).
It is a winning, multitabling regular who knows me, not some random unknown.

[FlyingSaucy]

tai will have to work harder to prove this is a fold.

FYP

[Geanooooo]

If hes a Reg, youre all over looking metagame! easy shove. lolll

[taipan168]

It all seems to turn on whether we can put AQ (and perhaps other Ax hands) in opp's shove over range. TT and the other pocket pair hands don't matter than much. Personally if I was BB I would not shove over a known winning tight regular raising over two limpers because I would know that his range is tight here, but maybe that's a leak of mine.