99 flops overpair against losing player ($27)

[taipan168]

Opp's stats over a very small sample size were 6/0. -26% ROI, -$1000 over 360 games.

Flop raise was a misclick - meant to make it 500 rather than 600. I have to call here, right? Would you raise the flop in the first place?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP1 (t2115)
MP2 (t1445)
Hero (t1640)
CO (t1970)
Button (t835)
SB (t1100)
BB (t1660)
UTG (t1510)
UTG+1 (t1225)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 9, 9.
2 folds, MP1 calls t50, MP2 calls t50, Hero calls t50, 3 folds, BB checks.

Flop: (t225) 6, 4, 2 (4 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets t150, Hero raises to t600, BB folds, MP1 folds, MP2 raises to t1395, Hero ????

[Da GOAT]

i dont get it, why raise if your not calling a shove?????

[Monty3038]

Ok, I'm still new but want to see how bad my thought pattern is here...

If I'm reading it right, there are two options I see the MP2 could be holding by going all - in (now he could just be one of the killer donks I seem to match up against - lol)

If he was nuts to call in the first place, he might be holding a 35 off suit, which gives him a low straight, let me look to see if I read it right...

The other situation I see is he limped in with a TP, or A3 and is either hoping to catch the 5 or thinks he is top dog with his pair...

So in this case, i'd fold. But I'm a noob and a donk

[Im_new]

I think I would have just shoved over on that flop into a losing player, especially in a turbo or while playing 6+ tables. I know I don't like the regular re-raise here. I don't see a made set playing like this on this board... I'm putting him on 77, 88, or two royal cards before his r-r-RAI....at the moment, maybe, it is a set...(?)

[Monty3038]

Good point Im_New, I didn't think of the set angle, I see a lot of people calling in with pairs, hoping to lock a set.

[kmind]

i raise this pre, as played i raise to 450, making a fold to a shove not so bad. with your raise size you gotta call this now.

[DetroitHusling101]

^ meh i dont like raising over 2 limpers heres. on the actual hand , i might just flat his flop bet since the draw that is out there really isn't in villians range and play it from there.
After raising though im def getting it in there.

[kmind]

^ meh i dont like raising over 2 limpers heres.

why not?

[bjsaust]

I'm happy to play this for set value pre, but against such a bad player I cant find a fold on the flop.

[DetroitHusling101]

^ meh i dont like raising over 2 limpers heres.

why not?

if it was folded to us i can see a raise
reasons i dont like it after limpers
1) raise size pre is gonna be big 225-250ish making cbetting w/ our stack pretty akward
2) a high % of the time overcards flop , do we cbet? makes it expensive
3) it's not really a premium hand imo and i play it like i would AJ here and limp.

[Geanooooo]

I dont raise flop here unless Im calling a shove.
But rarely get in here with 99 unless I have made plans to do so PF against a certain opponent.
Limping PF is fine, raising is pretty bad. id rather fold than raise.

[kmind]

if it was folded to us i can see a raise
reasons i dont like it after limpers
1) raise size pre is gonna be big 225-250ish making cbetting w/ our stack pretty akward
2) a high % of the time overcards flop , do we cbet? makes it expensive
3) it's not really a premium hand imo and i play it like i would AJ here and limp.

Not to be mean but I disagree with all 3 points. I think raising pre plus a cbet is very profitable on a lot of boards. We have the best hand now, let's get value + isolation + most likely the best position + sometimes they fold pre and win + being able to pick up the pot on flop when we miss + being able to pick up pot at showdown when we have the best hand. I don't know, just how I see it.

[mcatdog]

I would raise preflop but my play is too loose for one-table SnG's so who knows if it's correct.

I just don't understand what makes you think that guy is spewing with a hand that you beat. Looking at those stats, it seems more likely that the reason he's a losing player is because he's a supernit who lets himself get blinded out all the time.

[Im_new]

I don't know. 99-TT are hard to play at this blind level when there are earlier limpers. I usually standard raise TT, but I limp 99.

[Geanooooo]

if it was folded to us i can see a raise
reasons i dont like it after limpers
1) raise size pre is gonna be big 225-250ish making cbetting w/ our stack pretty akward
2) a high % of the time overcards flop , do we cbet? makes it expensive
3) it's not really a premium hand imo and i play it like i would AJ here and limp.

Not to be mean but I disagree with all 3 points. I think raising pre plus a cbet is very profitable on a lot of boards. We have the best hand now, let's get value + isolation + most likely the best position + sometimes they fold pre and win + being able to pick up the pot on flop when we miss + being able to pick up pot at showdown when we have the best hand. I don't know, just how I see it.

^^Maybe profitable, but limping for set value probly works out more +ev long term.
kmind do you really expect cbetting 99 to be profitable and on what boards?
Getting value Pf in spots like these is very overrated, as its hard to find a spot to get value post flop if our cbet is called/raised unless we flop a set.
Remember this is a SNG where we dont need to commit lots of chips early in a marginal spot.

[kmind]

Geano - maybe my play is a little loose in sng's as well as mcat stated but that is my opinion/style i guess. There are a lot of boards this can be profitable on, and i won't name them all. With a board of all overs that sucks but i check behind and you can most likely take it down if villain checks both flop and turn. But you won't see a board of all overs an insane amount of the time. If you can cbet pretty well, i raise this. I can only guess taipan can.

[Skeeno]

Meh yucky situation .

I probably raise pre, but then again I'm pretty aggro pre, if your playing for set value pre you need to be wary of these kind of flops. Villain could easily be limping 22, 44, 66, he could also limp 77, 88 which we are ahead of but I can't see much else with his stats we are beating - he does seem incredibly tight 6/0. I don't want to play an overly large pot here . . . the fact they guy is so tight indicates to me he has something, without a flush draw out there he could well have the set, A6 seems out of his range . . ditto 35, he could even be limping tens and above maybe. Either way I probably call flop - then depending on whether he fires a second barrel on turn/fold, after all if we're limping pre we're playing the hand to hit another 9. As played meh I think I'm folding and keeping my stack alive.

[Jack Sawyer]

Decision's easy because of your raise size on flop
Pot is too big too abandon

[bjsaust]

I just don't understand what makes you think that guy is spewing with a hand that you beat. Looking at those stats, it seems more likely that the reason he's a losing player is because he's a supernit who lets himself get blinded out all the time.

Oh god, I should stop replying to posts when I'm tired. I thought opps stats were 60/0, not 6/0...

Yeah, now I find a fold here easy enough.

[Jack Sawyer]

i dont get it, why raise if your not calling a shove?????

+1

[taipan168]

Meh, maybe I should have cut my post off after opp's flop bet so we could discuss that (and preflop if necessary).

kmind, it is difficult if not impossible to prove this one way or the other, but I really do believe that your style is too loose for SNGs. It can be particularly effective in cash (particularly shorthanded) and maybe MTTs but in SNGs which are very short stacked games you can't throw chips around the way you can in cash.

Not to say that raising 99 in this spot would be a terrible mistake, but as a more general proposition some of your plays seem to be too loose. Just my opinion!

[DetroitHusling101]

a TON of flops can get us in tough spots. In this hand im thinking more of our chip stack for the upcoming level 50/100 which is a crucial level in sngs imo. if im raising pre than im cbetting any 1 overcard flop when checked to , and maybe calling a donkbet depending on size , so if we call a small donk lead and c/fold turn we lose about 1/3 of our stack , if we get c/rai on a 1 overcard flop we lose 1/3+ of our stack , and what if we get multiple calls pre? do we cbet a 1 overcard flop ? were bound to lose our stack if we do. the times we do lose 1/3+ of our stack and have to go into 50/100 with >10bb doesn't make up for the reward of taking the pot down pre , or cbetting the flop and taking it down.
another ugly spot is if we get limp/shoved on preflop.
i think theres enough value in playing for set value , and in some cases overpair value , although im not positive im raising this flop vs villian.

[kmind]

alright won't fight any more, all about opinions i guess

[Geanooooo]

Its not really about opinions, Its extremely hard to play PROFITABLE loose poker early in a SNG, especially if you are multitabling.
Its fine opening up when the blinds get bigger and the table becomes short handed (also in cash games as Tai said) but this early I think raising in spots like these is just costing us EV for reasons detroit stated.

[TLR]

We had a very similar discussion about a JJ hand a few days ago.

limping pocket pair preflop in a multiway pot and then playing your hand for overpair value is bound to get you into a lot of sticky situaitons, if you plan to play it for overpair value raise preflop, which I think is the correct move here.

As played I think that you played the flop fine, I think the most likely range for villian is PP 22-TT, out of which you are dead vs 22,44,66,TT, way ahead of 77,88 and big favirote vs 55,33, other options are hands like A4/A6 which were badly played.