$200nl - Another Aces Hand

[spoonitnow]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($410.15)
BB ($27)
UTG ($226.55)
UTG+1 ($273.50)
MP1 ($74)
Hero ($200)
CO ($35.75)
Button ($215.75)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, A.
3 folds, Hero raises to $8, 2 folds, SB calls $7, 1 fold.

Flop: ($18) J, 7, T (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $16, SB raises to $48, Hero ...

First orbit, no stats and I don't know how he got his stack.

Here's my though process at the table: I figure sets, JT, KK/QQ and draws are his most likely hands. There's 12 combinations of KK/QQ that I'm way ahead of, 9 combinations of sets that I'm way behind, and 9 combinations of JT that I'm something like 3:1 or 4:1 against. I figure against those hands that I'm about a coin-flip and that he's calling a push with all of them, but I have to weight KK/QQ a little less since he would likely 3-bet with these hands preflop. However, with consideration for 16 possible combinations of KQ plus the occasional two spades (which are less likely because I hold the A and the T is on the board, though I don't think it matters much here), and I think that this is a clear push since calling and getting it in on the turn doesn't seem to have any added benefit, but it could let draws catch on me.

Thoughts?

[Deanglow]

Yeah that board is way too drawy to do anything but push. This is not a wa/wb situation.

[Dave K]

I don't think you can put him on KK/QQ as most ppl 3-bet these pre-flop. As you said you have the 3 spades and back door straight/flush potential if you are behind. I would just shove the flop.