10NL AJ - 4 way... Huge -ev?

[sweetlemon69]

Ok... I really hope I don't get flamed to hard here... This, to me, felt like a total tilt move..... (See my aces post above..... I ended up on the 30% side of the fence )

I swear all 3 Villans were 40+/10 over 100 hands... i swear this was thee loosest table....


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP1 ($29.55)
Hero ($10.15)
MP3 ($6.25)
CO ($16.25)
Button ($4.85)
SB ($13.30)
BB ($5)
UTG ($10.75)
UTG+1 ($1.85)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, J.
2 folds, MP1 raises to $0.5, Hero calls $0.50, 1 fold, CO calls $0.50, 1 fold, SB calls $0.45, 1 fold.

Flop: ($2.10) 4, 7, A (4 players)
SB checks, MP1 bets $0.5, Hero raises to $1.5, CO calls $1.50, SB calls $1.50, MP1 raises to $3.5, Hero raises to $9.65, CO folds, SB folds, MP1 calls $6.15.

Turn: ($24.40) T (2 players)

River: ($24.40) 2 (2 players)

Final Pot: $24.4

[Chopper]

i'm guessing your villain held a low spade?

seriously, if they are running that loose...which i have also seen lately...you may want to think about 3betting that AJ once in awhile. not a recommended move, generally, but if i have 3-4 at a table running 40+ vpip and 10+ pfr, i feel i have a strong enough A to 3bet to isolate one of them. and, of course, i would like AJs.

as played, i think you also need a read on post flop behavior before stacking off on this flop with a J kicker. you just have to get AJo down to less than 4 players.

[sweetlemon69]

Sorry if it looks like i'm creating posts and answering it myself for attention... but even though pokerstove says i'm good here... is there really +ev in this?


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,030,170,393 games 53.938 secs 19,099,158 games/sec

Board: 4s 7d Ad
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 67.448% 65.48% 01.97% 668145184 20100418.75 { AJo }
Hand 1: 16.410% 15.33% 01.08% 156412335 11033740.17 { 44+, A2s+, K3s+, Q5s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A3o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 2: 16.142% 15.09% 01.05% 153958269 10754501.25 { 44+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A3o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T9o }


---

29,893,403,231 games 149.000 secs 200,626,867 games/sec

Board: 4s 7d Ad
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.492% 41.92% 01.55% 12531935703 464023797.83 { AJo }
Hand 1: 30.010% 30.81% 00.63% 9211634029 187903959.83 { 44+, A2s+, K3s+, Q5s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A3o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 2: 28.499% 27.99% 01.87% 8367521262 558710148.33 { 44+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A3o+, K7o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T9o }


---

296,082,864 games 0.750 secs 394,777,152 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 76.135% 75.60% 00.53% 223845264 1576452.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 18.742% 18.61% 00.14% 55086948 404868.00 { QQ }
Hand 2: 05.123% 04.59% 00.53% 13592880 1576452.00 { AKo }


---

82,190,592 games 0.005 secs 16,438,118,400 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.789% 58.58% 00.21% 48147168 171786.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 41.211% 41.00% 00.21% 33699852 171786.00 { 87s }


---

[sweetlemon69]

Whoops.. just saw your post. Yeah a 3bet I should have done... curse the tilt... And generally, do you make notes on people here and there on what they've gone to showdown with before?

[Chopper]

i make notes on EVERYTHING i see that is not what i call "standard."

if a guy 3bets AJ...i note it
if a guy felts TP...i note it
if a guy limps pre flop and folds a lot...i note it

etc etc

[sweetlemon69]

Ahh ok. I should definitely do that more. Do you note on all the tables you play on?

[Robb]

I'm folding on the flop. I don't like AQ or AJ (or worse) in a 4-way pot at NL10, regardless of what pokerstove says. It's negative EV, imo. I can see a call preflop, but I don't like it from MP, maybe from the cutoff or button.

Pre, there's just too many NL10 loose passive donks who will call as 3rd or 4th into a raised pot. We are worried about the diamond flush draw, 4's, 7's, A4, A7 and even 56, all of which are all too likely to call behind you at NL10.

Reraise pre, or fold, imo. Fold the flop.

[Jimmy Mac]

Reraise pre, or fold, imo. Fold the flop.

QFT. Your relative position is poor and you dont really want a multiway pot, so I'm not keen on the call preflop. 3-betting a loose raiser is fine.

I would fold the flop after you get three bet, unless MP1 is completely retarded you are beat here.