$11: 88 in bvb facing raise

[cag8f]

ICM says I have to be a pretty heavy favorite against his range to pushover. Even if he folds 80% of the time, my hand has to beat 63% of the hands he's holding. If he's making that raise w/22+, A2+, I'm only 60% to win. Villian was 31/20 over 105 hands, and had already raised and called my pushover holding KT. Anyone care to agree or disagree with folding? Is there any value in a call?


-----Hand 22-----
Hero's M = 7.90
Full Tilt Poker Game #5181478874: $10 + $1 Sit & Go (39381639), Table 1 - 100/200 - No Limit Hold'em - 3:57:48 ET - 2008/02/09
Condensed history provided by the Tournament Trimmer (v1.1.4w) from http://www.FlopTurnRiver.com
Seat 1: dasquirrel (2,630)
Seat 5: Boxin (8,500)
Seat 9: jerry1333 (2,370)
Boxin posts the small blind of 100
jerry1333 posts the big blind of 200
The button is in seat #1
Preflop: jerry1333 dealt 8 8
dasquirrel folds
Boxin raises to 400
Hero???

[fjuanl]

The only time this would be a bad pushover is if villian is only raising top 10% or better. Here he could easily raise top 30%. Are you using Sngwiz for ICM?

[taipan168]

Never ever call here if you are going to play, mid pocket pairs play very well in preflop all-ins but badly postflop (since you have no idea whether you're ahead or behind).

Against a player with those stats raising SB vs BB, I am not folding - I am shoving over all day. Don't forget that you still have reasonable fold equity even considering stack sizes.

[cag8f]

No, I did them by hand, with the help of the ICM calculator here: http://www.chillin411.com/icmcalc.php I definitely could have made an error though. Someone check these numbers:

Equity if I fold: .2812
Equity if I push and win: .3409
Equity if I push and lose: 0

If he's never folding, then I have to be 82% to win. Doesn't sound right to me, tha's why I'm asking someone to double check this.

If you factor in any fold equity I may have--
Equity if I push and he folds: .2977

Then you have to consider how often he's folding to a push. Even so, he still needs to fold over ~80% of the time, according to my numbers.

As an aside, I have SNGPT, and it certainly is great for assisting with opening all in, or calling all ins. But it really can't help with this sort of situation. Can SNGWIZ help with this? If so, I may look into purchasing it. Is there anything else SNGWIZ can do better than SNGPT? (There may already be a thread about this--haven't checked yet).

[taipan168]

Someone check these numbers:

Equity if I fold: .2812
Equity if I push and win: .3409 I get 0.343
Equity if I push and lose: .20 - you forgot to take into account the fact that you get third if you push and lose

If he's never folding, then I have to be (0.2812-0.2)/(0.343-0.2) = 56.8% to win.

If you factor in any fold equity I may have--
Equity if I push and he folds: .2977

As an aside, I have SNGPT, and it certainly is great for assisting with opening all in, or calling all ins. But it really can't help with this sort of situation. Can SNGWIZ help with this? If so, I may look into purchasing it. Is there anything else SNGWIZ can do better than SNGPT? (There may already be a thread about this--haven't checked yet).

Yes, SNG Wiz can help with this, it can a) analyse situations where somebody has limped or raise in front and b) takes into account the possibility that if you fold, two players to act after you will get it AI against each other, potentially increasing your equity if one of them gets knocked out.

[cag8f]

Ah, I forgot I was already ITM and had some equity if I lose. I knew that 80% figure was off--would of had me pushing only hands better than AA! And when I re-ran the figures, I got .343 as well. Thanks for correcting those. With a little fold equity then, I agree that pushing is correct. In game I did that, and lost when he called with that monster K9s.

One more SNGWIZ question. SNGPT allows you import hands and even entire FT tourneys. Does SNGWIZ allow that as well?

[humanfugitive]

Yes, SNGwiz imports automatically after you set your folder. Get the free trial.

[taipan168]

With a little fold equity then, I agree that pushing is correct. In game I did that, and lost when he called with that monster K9s.

That actually isn't a completely call with K9s in opp's position, considering his stack size. In his position I would have just put you AI the first time though.