20-20-20, getting donked into by a donk

[mcatdog]

Villain is a big fish, my stats on him are 35/7 now that the tourney is over and they weren't too different at the time, but I'm 12-tabling so no specific reads. Looking at the math, assuming I'm 30% when called I only need him to fold about 20% of the time for a shove to be good but he bet really big and that's such a scary board that probably nailed his calling range.

Poker Stars, $20 + $2 NL Hold'em Tournament, 150/300 Blinds, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: 4,635
BB: 9,665
UTG: 11,435
UTG+1: 10,915
MP1: 5,570
MP2: 5,670
CO: 5,920
Hero (BTN): 6,745

Pre-Flop: (675) Q T dealt to Hero (BTN)
6 folds, Hero raises to 750, Observer folds, SB calls 450

Flop: (1,875) K 8 J (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
SB bets 1,500, Hero?

[chardrian]

I don't think a push is that bad. You have 8 clear outs. You might have 1 more with the backdoor flush draw. You might have 3 more the Q (you would think most players would c/r a K there rather than donk it, but who knows?).

It's about 3900 to win like 5800 if my math is right. So you need to be around 40% to make this close to neutral EV.

If it really is just 8 outs you have like 33% ish.

[elipsesjeff]

For some reason I instashove here and villain has KQo and smokes me everytime. It doesn't make much sense to me either on why they play it that way.

Could we call and shove the turn if checked to instead?

[CorbinDallas]

from my experience....

donks don't reraise AK... and they bet out big... and even overbet like this on a scarey board.

so if you want him to fold... i wouldn't shove unless you feel the need or want to gamble.

[johnny_fish]

Yea, I'd just shove it in, don't expect a fold often but it should be enough.

[CorbinDallas]

Yea, I'd just shove it in, don't expect a fold often but it should be enough.

johnny what do you mean "it should be enough"?

we're 30% to win if we get called.... 70% we lose. so if they fold30% of the time we come out ahead in the long run. winning pot 60% of the time.

is that what you mean?

basically we think 30% of the time he is just trying to re-steal the pot cuz he thinks we raised from the cutoff with something that didn't hit that flop?

i don't understand how this isn't just a good way to get yourself knocked out most of the time.

could you guys elaborate?

[chardrian]

I think you hit close enough to it.

I am sure mcat could make a nice little equation for us showing exactly how many times we would need our opp to fold to make our shove +EV but I am too dumb for that and I don't have enough time to figure it out during a hand anyways....

so there are some situations where I basically just say even if he has me beat here, I am not THAT far behind EV wise so that the few times he does fold here makes my aggressive move at least ok.

p.s. the amount of times I see people fold after putting in like 75% of their stack continues to amaze me.

[johnny_fish]

stack if opp calls and we win: 11755
stack if opp folds: 9370
current stack: 5995

so push>fold if

f*9370 + (1-f) * E * 11755 > 5995 ->
f >(5995 - E*11755)/(9370-E*11755)

f = fold %
E = equity if called

For instance, if E=33, f should be greater than 38%..

The best action seems a fold now, hmm

[johnny_fish]

Board: Kc 8c Jd

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.960% 36.59% 06.37% 28253 4920.50 { QhTc }
Hand 1: 57.040% 50.67% 06.37% 39126 4920.50 { AJs, AcTc, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, AJo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, T9o }

E=43 -> f = 22%

lol, it's close

[johnny_fish]

I forgot he could just be bluffing too. A push is the right play.

[mcatdog]

Thanks J-fish, that was helpful. I did shove and he snap folded.

[CorbinDallas]

i would almost never play this hand that way. unless i had a really good read that villain was splashing around and being obviously, overly aggressive.

can you guys shed some light on the kind of mindset you have towards the game in general that allows you to make this play without much of a 2nd thought?

[drmcboy]

i would almost never play this hand that way. unless i had a really good read that villain was splashing around and being obviously, overly aggressive.

can you guys shed some light on the kind of mindset you have towards the game in general that allows you to make this play without much of a 2nd thought?

1) You're new and most new players who study the game are way worried about that old friend, your 'tournament life'. After a while you just get used to going broke. Once you win a few you realize how often you're gambing to get there and maybe even more than that the sheer volume of people you have to wade through.

2)

I'm 12-tabling

No time for any second thoughts!

[CorbinDallas]

that makes sense.

i suppose the key is finding the right balance between aggression (mixed with reads and situations) and just being wreckless. how do i learn this balance? is it just through lots of experience and trial and error? is it simply ditching my "old friend". do you either have it or you don't?

how many hands do i have to play... how long should i be playing... how much do i need to win.... what does my ROI need to be before i'm not considered 'new' anymore?

serious question... i'm not being facetious.

can you tell i'm serious?

[chardrian]

I still consider myself new.

[drmcboy]

how many hands do i have to play... how long should i be playing... how much do i need to win.... what does my ROI need to be before i'm not considered 'new' anymore?

I think the best answer is when these questions don't seem like the right questions anymore.

Here are some better ones:

(when you get it in) Am I usually getting it in good?

(when you get it in bad) Was it reasonable to get it in? If not, can I see what I should/could have done differently?

Don't get me wrong, I know we're all here to win, but evaluating yourself in those terms (ROI, cashes, FTs, wins, whatever) will make you crazy, especially playing a small amount per week in what I would guess are mostly huge tourneys. The only reason to look at the money is to keep playing BR/skill appropriate games. If you answer yes to everything above and play in your roll the money will come.

[CorbinDallas]

well i've hijacked this thread without meaning to... its just lead to this... evaluating what i'd do with mcat's hand and what he did.

dr... i do ask those questions. perhaps not often enough yet. i do play ALOT at the smaller BI's. 5-6 nights per week and 3.5 to 7 hours per night... depends on how deep i get etc... the 4/180's are my main bankroll builder as i am taking shots at larger tourneys. i'm very committed to improving... and moving up... and i have improved from my fishbowl days... blah blah blah.

dunno where i am going with this now... but good thread, good things to think about.