Variance or Leak?

[humanfugitive]

I've been running pretty shitty for a while and I'm inclined to think it's just not variance. I'm wondering if i'm stealing as much as i should, giving away too much in unnecessary situations, or if my bubble play has gone down the drain. I'll post my last 5 5.50 sngs if you guys want to take a look and help me figure this out.

Tourney 1: http://www.flopturnriver.com/Online-...ment-2852.html
Tourney 2: http://www.flopturnriver.com/Online-...ment-2853.html
Tourney 3: http://www.flopturnriver.com/Online-...ment-2854.html
Tourney 4: http://www.flopturnriver.com/Online-...ment-2855.html
Tourney 5: http://www.flopturnriver.com/Online-...ment-2856.html

[DetroitHusling101]

Ill review one quickly
Tournament 2
Hand 25h7h) I just fold , no need IMO to put pressure on the BB here i think fold>>>limp>>>raise.
Hand 3: (44) Fold , were in EP , were not deep enough to set mine , we cannot call a raise.
Hand 8 (KQo) The push is fine. We got called by A9o and lost a 60/40 , no biggie.

[taipan168]

First one (2852):

Wow, you ran super cold carded the first 4 levels!

A 2 BU (M = 49.00; c+f+c+f+f+f+F) (before Hand 1) - with two limpers in front I would limp on the button and try to hit something nice on the flop (and a lone A does NOT count as something nice)

2. AJo - if you are going to play, I would raise more preflop, make it 350-400 to go. I sometimes fold here with the limper in front. As played, just shove the flop.

7. 42o - since you have no FE, I would fold and shove the next hand from UTG since the chances are you will get dealt a better hand.

[taipan168]

Third one (2854):

I thought this was pretty solid overall. Just a few specific spots where I would have made a different play, but I don't think you made any really horrible mistakes. GG.

7. 44 - I would call the raise, you have implied odds to play for set value (you need to call 90 chips to potentially win 1500+)

16/18. I would consider shoving back from the BB with these hands.

4 A BU (M = 5.64; F) (between 18 and 19) - I'd consider shoving this

19. K2s - I would fold this, although shoving is not very -EV

24. K2s - I would probably let this one go, although again shoving is not very -EV

30. 54o - I bet the flop for 300 and go from there, rather than check/calling. Once you check, just let it go to the bet.

31. A4o - I raise a bit more, say 700 to go, since you are OOP postflop.

32. T5s - 600 to go rather than 800, if you get called it just keeps the pot a bit smaller

[humanfugitive]

Thanks for the input. Idk, I was killing the 5.50's and the 11s a while ago but now i can't even manage to get ITM.

One other thing im noticing is my amount of AK spewing. I think this might be one of my major leaks where i tend to overvalue AK against aggression on the bubble and typically end up losing to a pp or QJ or AX or some shit. Also the problem with cbetting with AK is when i get minraised I think i may still have FE and raise more on the turn. Idk, min raises tend to confuse me more than i would like.

[humanfugitive]

Regarding the AK situation - here's one example:

1st hand no reads.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button (t1500)
SB (t1500)
Hero (t1500)
UTG (t1500)
UTG+1 (t1500)
MP1 (t1500)
MP2 (t1500)
MP3 (t1500)
CO (t1500)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, K.
UTG calls t20, 1 fold, MP1 calls t20, 1 fold, MP3 calls t20, CO calls t20, Button raises to t60, SB calls t50, Hero raises to t220, UTG folds, MP1 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button calls t160, SB folds.

Flop: (t580) 6, 3, 3 (2 players)
Hero bets t320, Button folds.

Final Pot: t580

I don't like this one bit, but I don't see any other way to win. I know it's a good move to reraise preflop to see where you are at, but showing this much aggerssino and just checking on a flop like this is too wasteful. But then again, I am not the original raiser and he could likely have a playable PP. If he does raise or push here, well I can't call at all meaning i just wasted close to half of my stack. I also know from previous posts that betting anything smaller than 1/2 pot is also taboo. I guess the next logical step would to consider a smaller reraise preflop and allowing a smaller cbet since we are OOP?

[taipan168]

I think you played this fine. You DEFINITELY want to put in a big re-raise preflop since playing this AK OOP on a 5+ way pot is a disaster. On the flop, you have the initiative to c-bet because you re-raised preflop, and that is quite a safe flop for you so I think your play is fine. You're right, if you get shoved over it is difficult to find a call and you did burn 1/3 of your stack, but over the long run I think this play is +EV.

I know it's a good move to reraise preflop to see where you are at

Nonononononono this is not a good reason to re-raise preflop. The reasons for re-raising are:
- To try to either win the pot preflop or thin the field to 1-2 opps
- Because you very likely have the best hand preflop so you want to build the pot
- To give you the initiative to c-bet a missed flop

[taipan168]

Fourth one (2855):

I think you have a bit of a leak with your small-medium pocket pair hands by limping but not calling the raise when you have implied odds to do so. The 66 hand was no good either, you need to shove or fold this preflop since you are too short to standard raise, c-bet the flop and not be pot committed if called or raised.

1. 22 - I would call the raise - with the cold caller (and even without) you definitely have implied odds to call and play for set value.

2. AQo - if you are going to play this (and I would) you need to raise it rather than limp. 100-120 to go. As played, I would probably raise the turn, make it 120 to go. You have the nut flush draw and a gutshot straight draw and they might fold the donkbet to a raise. River bet is good.

4. 88 - again, I would call the raise. Any time I can win ~15x the chips I need to call, I'll call the raise and play for set value on the flop.

5. QQ - hmm, I suspect you couldn't re-raise preflop because the AI raise was not big enough. If so, it's obv fine.

8. 66 - this is a hand you want to push or fold preflop. Standard raising is really bad here because if you're just flat called you have no idea where you are on the flop if you don't flop a set. As to whether to push or fold, it's really really close actually - 77 I definitely shove, 55 I fold, this is right on the border. Probably fold if you believe you have a skill edge over your opps (which you most probably do).

9. 76s - I would lead the flop for 120 and give up if called or raised.

10. 87s - I don't like this one at all. Don't raise this when there is a limper in front, there's too much chance of getting called. Suited connectors are hands you want to play when you can see the flop cheap to see if you can flop something big, not as a hand to raise over limpers. As played, I hate folding to such a small bet but I think you have to.

13. QTo - meh I don't hate this, you're so shortstacked and there's a good chance that opp will fold to your push, I think it's OK.

[taipan168]

Last one (2856):

You missed quite a few short stack shoves in this one. You should run these hands through SNG Wiz (if you have it) because this could be a leak. Also, you are not raising often enough or big enough with your big hands when there are limper(s) in front. The AQ hand is a case in point, don't just limp behind here.

2. 88 - folding the flop is definitely the prudent choice but I sometimes call here and see what he does on the turn since you have position.

3. AQo - you need to raise this one up man. 80-100 to go preflop. You can then a) thin the field and b) c-bet the flop if texture is good and you are up against 1-2 opps.

5. AKo - raise it up more preflop with the limper, 200 to go. Flop c-bet is good.

6. AJs - you played fine. LOOOOOOOOOL at the limp/call AI with K2 soooooooooooooooted OMG! On a serious note, make sure you make a note that this guy is a limp/caller in case you run into him again.

9 A SB (M = 18.37; f+f+f+f+f+F) (between 6 and 7) - I'd raise this for sure

6 6 UTG (M = 12.69; F) (between 7 and 8) - good fold from UTG with your stack

A 2 BU (M = 11.69; f+f+f+f+F) (between 8 and 9) - I would raise this, 2.5x BB

T 6 SB (M = 16.33; f+f+f+f+F) (between 9 and 10) - shove this if the BB has <10x BB, fold if not

10. A5o - ouch! I play it the same though, but probably make it 500 rather than 600 to go.

13. 32o - LOL that's too funny

Q 4 SB (M = 2.63; f+f+f+F) (between 13 and 14) - shove this FOR SURE, you have an above average hand and it's folded to you in the SB, easy shove here.

K 3 BU (M = 5.27; f+f+F) - could be a shove, I'd need to see the stack sizes

9 6 SB (M = 4.78; f+f+f+F) (between 16 and 17) - shove this

8 A CO (M = 4.42; f+F) (between 16 and 17) - definitely shove this

[humanfugitive]

hmm... When i was starting up and reading all the guides to STTS, i read something about being very cautious with AQ if playing at all during the early levels. That's why i figured a limp/eval would be ideal OOP. I guess I could play AQ as the initial agressor with some sort of position. If that's possible, why would AJ be any different. It seems like theres a huge gap between AK and AQ and between AQ and AJ -Ax.

Thanks for the insight - definitely learned/relearned something

[bjsaust]

AQ is a dog to AK, whereas AJ is a dog to both AQ and AK. Also a lot of people will reraise with AK, but call your raise with AQ. All this adds up to something between moderatly and significantly more reverse implied odds with AJ.

Be careful with AQ, but its still a premium hand.

[DetroitHusling101]

Regarding AQ in general I've went through both stages and experimented w/ the hand. Especially at the low buyins >$16 i think there's a lot of value in raising it up over limpers. They limp/call with worse Ax's and will felt them. They also check/fold a lot of flops we cbet when we don't hit and they prob. have something like a small pp.

[bjsaust]

The difference between AQ and AJ, illustrated:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (7 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

MP2 (t875)
CO (t1445)
Button (t1925)
Hero (t1425)
BB (t2680)
UTG (t2445)
MP1 (t2705)

Preflop: Hero is SB with , .
1 fold, MP1 calls t30, 2 folds, Button raises to t150, Hero raises to t1425, 1 fold, MP1 folds, Button calls t1275.

Flop: (t2910) , , (2 players)

Turn: (t2910) (2 players)

River: (t2910) (2 players)

Final Pot: t2910

Results:
Hero has Qh Ah (two pair, queens and sixes).
Button has Js Ad (one pair, sixes).
Outcome: Hero wins t2910.


Note I only pushed over here because villian was raising so loosely I was well ahead of his range, this isnt a suggestion to normally play AQ this way, just a bit of light humor .

[DetroitHusling101]

Yeah a shove there is a little overkill , but if you figure he will call lightly w/ crap like AJ than i guess it's ok.

[bjsaust]

I actually expected him to fold his crap, him calling was just a bonus. His stats were something like 50/30.