100NL: AA 3 way pot with 2 stations

[jimmy44]

Tonight I got some difficult AA hands ...

Poker Room skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
10 players
Seat 1: MP2 ($59.10 in chips)
Seat 2: MP3 ($100.00 in chips)
Seat 3: CO+1 ($102.20 in chips)
Seat 4: CO ($147.05 in chips)
Seat 5: BU ($13.00 in chips)
Seat 6: SB ($173.35 in chips)
Seat 7: BB ($85.50 in chips)
Seat 8: UTG ($10.00 in chips)
Seat 9: Hero [ AC,AD ] ($100.00 in chips)
Seat 10: MP1 ($151.55 in chips)
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is UTG+2 with A A
2 folds, Hero raises to $4, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, 4 folds, BB calls.

Flop: 6 7 6 ($12.5, 3 players)
BB bets $4.5, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: J ($26, 3 players)
BB bets $3.5, Hero raises to $18, MP2 calls, BB folds.

River: T ($65.5, 2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $25, Hero ???

villain was 40/5/2.5
BB was also a station.
I raised turn as I was almost sure BB was on a Flush draw.
Can you call the river?

[Deanglow]

Raise the flop and this hand becomes a lot easier.

[vegascoop]

I would rasie the flop too. As played, I probably call the river.

[jimmy44]

Raise the flop and this hand becomes a lot easier.

The trouble on raising the flop is that BB and villain will call with hands like 33-55 and I'll not know what I'm up against if I raise, so I simply called flop. flush hits I'll still have outs and I can try to see a cheap flop.

[Deanglow]

Raise the flop and this hand becomes a lot easier.

The trouble on raising the flop is that BB and villain will call with hands like 33-55 and I'll not know what I'm up against if I raise, so I simply called flop. flush hits I'll still have outs and I can try to see a cheap flop.

I see something wrong here.

[shazbox]

If you raise you won't know what you're up against implies that by not raising you will know what you're up against...and by the sounds of it, you don't know. So it looks like you should have raised anyway

[Jimmy Mac]

I raise the flop and get all in against these donks ASAP.

As played MP2s turn cold call concerns me a little, but you said he was a station so I would shove the river anyway, he has less than a pot size bet left at that point.

[jimmy44]

If you raise you won't know what you're up against implies that by not raising you will know what you're up against...and by the sounds of it, you don't know. So it looks like you should have raised anyway

Actually, I don't want to committ too much money on this flop against these stations that can easily call PF with K6s, A6, Q6s, T6s (HU I would have raise flop). By calling flop I'll still won't know what I'm up against, but I put less money on the flop.
So my goal was to keep the pot small on flop and evaluate turn. A non scary card came on turn so I decided to raise to price out draws/make smaller pairs pay. On river, my goal was to check-call small bet if my turn raise was called.
Was my thinking process so bad?

[Fnord]

If MP2 is loose post-flop, then the river is a value bet or check/snap (if he's aggro.)
If MP2 is tight post-flop I might even check/fold.

[bigslikk]

I agree: raise flop and (as played) call river.

The minbet on the flop by the BB could be a six hoping to stir up some trouble, but you have to take weakness for weakness until you see signs of the contrary. Raise the price to a that of a real bet. Then you will know who's got a hand, and who's got a draw / overs. Better to find out on the cheap street.

Also, I pay the river. I agree that BB was on a draw, but that's easy, he folded the turn. It's also irrelevant: he folded the turn.

MP2 is the question. He calls the decent preflop raise in MP. Calls behind two players on the flop. Smooth calls the turn as well. Value bets the river.

I would weight MP2's range toward a big pair (an over pair or a jack) or JT for top two pair. I put less weight on the possible "monster" holdings that he has (pocket pair for a full house, or a single six). I believe this because:

MP2 doesn't look like he holds a monster:
1. 77 (makes sense given preflop) probably makes a bigger river bet; the turn shows that you like your hand and would be willing to call off a good amount.
2. A single six probably minraises flop or turn in order to juice up the pot (there's a lot of action going on on those streets to merely smooth call IMO.

My bet is that MP2 had an overpair (and was taking you for a ride, so he thought) or some overcards, like AJ. When the jack comes and you bet it, you're representing a jack on a basic level. He calls it anyway. I'd bet he has a jack or maybe a pair of queens. You the check the river, thus giving him the go-ahead to make a value bet.

I could be wrong. Also, JJ fits the action pretty well, if he's one of those "tricky" players at the donkstakes who smooth calls big pairs preflop in order to get into a profitable pissing contest with whoever hit top pair on the flop.

Just my two.

[Fnord]

I don't get why this flop is a must-raise. We have pretty much everything crushed.

[bumbling_ass]

I would like to (respectfully) disagree with calling the river here with an unimproved overpair (or less than top two pair)--thanks for pointing out my error, chopper... You are up against too many hands that can beat you, especially when there is a change in the villain's level of aggression- When the villian (who is presumably a calling station) flat called your turn raise, and suddenly perked up on the river after the T hit, that tells me this story: Villain calls your raise preflop w/ 89 (could be diamonds), put out a little bet to juice the pot, and obviously wasn't comfortable putting in much money on the turn. Many weak players aren't getting away from an OESD or a Four Flush, and the sudden change in aggression on the river tells me that he hit something. The only way I could call is if I had a lot of experience against this opponent and a note saying that he is a frequent bluffer after the flop. Worst case scenario, he called you with some kind of 6, and didn't have the guts to reraise you on the turn. Thoughts? What did you end up doing?

[Chopper]

you dont have one pair...you have two. and villain hit his J. if he has a 6, oh well, thats the nature of calling stations.

if you dont try and get as much value out of this hand as soon as you can, imo, you are playing scared.

fnord, i get what you are saying about raising flop, but why dont we? if villains are callers, we simply get more out of pp's, and they are rarely going to bluff/float.