$200NL - AQ in 3bet pot

[XTR1000]

Opponent is 12/6/1.4, I 3bet him 3 or 4 times within 15 minutes or so and he always gave up pre or on flop. His range for calling pre might be something like 99+, AJs+, AQo+, KQs, since the table is short and my image isn´t the greatest and he will have position. Flop is standard, turn was tough OOP. If I bet I doubt I could take a shove, tbh I planned to c/c or c/f. His check was confusing, his range is weightened towards 99,TT, AKcc or KQ, he could be sloplaying JJ-AA as well. Now what to do on river?
$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($56.70)
CO ($42.15)
BTN ($283.35)
SB ($236.74)
Hero ($200.00)

Pre-flop: ($3, 5 players) Hero is BB
2 folds, BTN raises to $8, 1 fold, Hero raises to $28, BTN calls $20

Flop: ($57, 2 players)
Hero bets $40, BTN calls $40

Turn: ($137, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($137, 2 players)

[kingnat]

I think you have to measure off some kind of value bet here... His line screams JJ to me, so going with a read I guess c/c is possible, but that seems too non-heterosexual.

[pokerfan]

after the flop, you already put $68 in the pot( past threshhold commitment).
so i shoved this turn to give him bad calling odds if he had Ackc.As played, i 'd bet 1/ 2 pot whatsoever and call his shove.

[arkana]

If he is as nitty as you say I think his range after the flop is AA/KK, AK, AQ, JJ, TT, 99, 44 and possibly KQ\AJ (although i think he folds this pf most of the time). I doubt a really nitty player will check behind with a monster on the turn here hoping to disguise his hand so i think you can discount JJ, 44.

Definitely lead the river as there is plenty of value here against his range and hes unlikely to bet a worse hand. You have about a pot sized bet left so think shoving is your best option. If he calls a $85 bet 75% of the time but a $130 bet only 50% of the time the $130 bet is still more profitable. I would consider betting the smaller amount if I think he is very unlikely to have checked behind with AA/KK.

These nitty players have a hard time folding their big hands since they play so few hands, so if he's the type to check behind with AA and KK for pot control then don't let him get away cheaply on the river.

[spoonitnow]

I bet about half the pot and call a shove. He's calling a bet with a lot of hands that you beat imo (the 3 combos of AA and 6 combos of KK, as well as the occasional TT/99 that's "tired of you pushing them around"). I think if he shoves then he likely has 44, JJ or KQ. There are 3 combos of 44, 3 combos of JJ, and 3 combos of KQ, so you still have pot odds to call if he just has those hands when he shoves.

[d0zer]

this is kinda weird, but as I was reading spoon's post cream's 'spoonful' came on and that part 'that spoooon that spoooon that spooooooOooon" was ringin' in my ear

I like spoon's logic. Especially given that hero's image is far from nit, we get calls & even pushes by a good chunk of his range.

If we then assume the wider range proposed by the OP...

On flop:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.611% 48.48% 00.13% 116620 324.00 { 99+, KQs }
Hand 1: 51.389% 51.25% 00.13% 123302 324.00 { AQo }



On turn:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.129% 48.13% 00.00% 5146 0.00 { 99+, KQs }
Hand 1: 51.871% 51.87% 00.00% 5546 0.00 { AQo }


On river:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 12.000% 12.00% 00.00% 18 0.00 { 99+, KQs }
Hand 1: 88.000% 88.00% 00.00% 132 0.00 { AQo }