Bluffing (long)

[XTR1000]

I´ve took this from my OP thread, b/c I suppose very few people are reading it. I´m posting this here, since this is where I hang out and contribute the most and b/c we had quite few discussions on more general topics and i really want this FR forum to be more than the "10max hh analysis corner".


After working on my bluffs and seeing a couple of bluff-hands posted I decided to put together some random thoughts about bluff plays. Take this as a general idea how to think about this topic. It´s not a definite guide about bluffing nor is it a "How To"-post. It may seem trivial to some, hopefully it isn´t totally useless.

Please discuss and drop your own thoughts. Give me shit, when you think I´m wrong. Post examples or questions or hands.

As a total newbie I took bluffing as making big bets with total air, when there´s no other chance to win the pot. Of course my bluffs were total spew, little did I know about how to bluff and more importantly why I´m bluffing.
Referring to ISF and the recent discussion around his style of teaching I´m not gonna talk about how u should bluff but try to line out why u should. When u get the "why", u can figure out the "how" on your own.

First off, we don´t bluff to win a pot. We don´t even play poker to win pots, we play to win moneyz b/c we love $$$.
It is possible to play a winning game without ever bluffing, but guess what? You can win more, when you´re bluffing in the right spots. Now there are 3 different ways to explain the necessity of bluff plays in order to lift your ptBB/100.

First approach "game theory":
GT teaches us, why bluff and steal plays can be profitable. Imagine you´re HU seeing a board of
2 8 T J 3
and you are first to act.
From the action so far u read your opponent for an overpair. Now u are betting 100% flushes, assume a random pot X and u bet out full pot. From villians perspective it´s an trivial easy fold, his expectation on his call is
eV = 1*(-X) + 0*(2X) = -X

Lets now get tricky and lead out 75% flushes and 25% total air. Whats villians expectation now?
eV = 0.75(-X) + 0.25*(2X) = -0.25X

So now, even if villian KNOWS we bluff 25% of the time, it´s impossible for him adjust. Obv this is an horrible simplified example, but u may get the point.
For further infos read
http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/GameTheory.html
or browse http://www.gametheory.net/


Second approach: Range balance
You may have noticed, that the top players here, like gabe, sauce123, ISF and others ALWAYS think, talk, discuss and dream in hand ranges. At the bottom line it comes back to game theory, but it´s a different approach to identify spots to bluff. Bluffs are essential to balance your ranges. If u think thinking in ranges is rocket science read ISF´s blog until u get it.
From this point of view we need to bluff on occassion to balance our ranges in certain situations. Our main goal is to have optimal balanced ranges in every situation we encounter, to deny our opponent to play optimal vs us.

Stop for a second and ask yourself, with which range do u check/raise turn after check/calling the flop? I bet it´s something like set+ for most of u. Whats ur range for shoving a certain river? 2nd nuts+? If villian picks up on this we have just allowed him to play near optimal, so figure out how to balance wisely.


Third approach "incentives"
This will be something new. I´ve read thru S.Levitt´s "Freakonomics" lately and there´s another approach to analyze your game on 2nd level. Don´t get me wrong, the basic mechanics are still game theory and expected value of decisions, I´m just trying to see things from a different point of view, one that hasn´t been mentioned yet in strats and post I´ve read so far.
Everyone at the poker table has a strictly economic mindset, and I mean everyone. Stations, maniacs, nits, TAGGs w/e, everybody responds to certain incentives. While a typical stations incentive might be to pass time and avoid aggressive confrontations and the maniacs incentive is gambling, having fun and putting pressure on others our incentive is to make money by making quality decisions.
Well, what incentives do u offer other regular players to play vs you, if u are known to play nothing but teh nuts? Right, none. While bluffing in the right spots can show a positive expectation in itself, we are now offering the opposition to win a pot from us now and then and thats a strong incentive to play vs us.

[SaulPaul]

nice post

[Unibomber14]

If you use the EV equation that way, is that a working model for fold equity? If not, what is the actual equation?

[wesrman]

I read this in your OP. Great stuff.
Really gave me some things to think about.
IMO, you dont get the recognition around here that you deserve.
I think you have as much good advice as anyone else, and are always willing to lend a hand.
Thanks...

[XTR1000]

I read this in your OP. Great stuff.
Really gave me some things to think about.
IMO, you dont get the recognition around here that you deserve.
I think you have as much good advice as anyone else, and are always willing to lend a hand.
Thanks...

thanks man, glad to hear it´s not totally useless what I´m producing

If you use the EV equation that way, is that a working model for fold equity? If not, what is the actual equation?

yea, u can easily take FE into account.

say u shove full pot X w/ A Q on a board of

T 9 6 4

vs a range of 99-QQ, T8,T9,JT,QT (88 combinations) against which u have 28% equity

If opponents never fold and equity plays out your expectation would be

EV = .28*(2X) - .72*(X) = -.16(X)

Now assume he folds anything but his pp´s or folds 64 of 88 combinations, roughly 72% the time. We have 25% equity vs his remaining range of 99-QQ, which he plays 38% the time

eV = .38[.25*(2X) - .75*(X)] + .72*(X) = .625X
where the underlined term is your folding equity

[Jack Sawyer]