Bluff turned top pair 150bb deep

[Deanglow]

Villain is 24/22 and is pretty bad. I've folded to most of his cbets, and he probably sees me as a little weak tight because of it. He is also a little stationy.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

Hero ($608)
UTG ($475.50)
MP ($346.50)
CO ($400)
Button ($841)
SB ($459)

Preflop: Hero is BB with , .
3 folds, Button raises to $16, 1 fold, Hero calls $12.

Flop: ($34) , , (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $24, Hero raises to $84, Button calls $60.

Turn: ($202) (2 players)
Hero bets $132, Button calls $132.

River: ($466) (2 players)
Hero bets $376 (All-In)

[Marshall28]

i dont know how much i like the river jam based on the dynamic you're describing. and i wouldn't consider this a bluff. EVER. if you are doing this you have to realize its a merge range and for value. what hand are you expecting to bluff out? lol ... you are hoping to get called by like KQ or QJ and hoping he doesnt have AQ.

[Marshall28]

actually the more i think about it, the more i think that if you've been giving up villain might actually think you are fed up and trying to make a play. but still i think that's a little far fetched since like ... what does he assume you are calling his flop checkraise w/ that's now bluffing the turn and river? ... if he thinks you think he's checkraising you light on this board ... which if hes any kind of decent player, he should. he would have to think that you are calling to float and take it away, in which case this might actually be kind of good. it really is a feel type question and depends too much on game flow, IMO. it's like .. what does he think you called the flop w/ that you are now bluffing on the turn.... he has to think you have air if hes calling the turn w/ worse than an A, in which case i really like the jam on the river given that you balance your range and do this w/ hands like JTss also, and a pure bluff occasionally. I might even expect villain to show up w/ something like a weaker A here occasionally, so ok my regis, my final answer, i think this is good as long as u r balancing your range.

[ChrisTheFish]

I'd 3 bet pre.

Flop is a good spot to CR obv if villain is trying to run over you and you have a tight image.

I like a river C/C as it looks like your trying to play back @ him and give up on the river, and if he has a hand like KQ, he might go for thin value.

Sometimes i'm even tempted to C/C turn and river if i think he has QT-QK here to try get max value from my hand.

But yeah, your way is goot too, but i don't think your getting called here.

[Marshall28]

god, i read this hand backwards, i thought u got checkraised and floated. disregard my other posts lol.

[Marshall28]

if u opt to not 3bet, this line is super optimal. i prefer to 3bet also. but this is one of those flops u have to checkraise if u opt to flat. i like your play.

[Deanglow]

I often flat from the blinds this deep with broadways hands. AJos is probably the best hand I do this with 150bb deep. I thought about check/calling the river but I think he calls with KQ/KK alot.

[Marshall28]

he shouldnt ever have KK here, the more i look at it, the more i like it cuz he's gonna have holdings ranging from like 77-JJ frequently and is gonna think u r trying bluff using the ace as a scare card since u didnt 3bet preflop (so its not as conceivable u hold a decent ace).

question is ... what does villain put u on when he flats turn ... its like ... he has to know u wouldn't bet a Q like this if it wasnt AQ but u woulda 3bet that preflop ... it looks like u have a set or like absolute air. and it's very possible he could have been floating your checkraise w/ a weaker ace that has like a backdoor FD and think he's good.

i like your plays for all those reasons.

[Deanglow]

This definitely looks like a set or air and not what I actually have. Would you like the play if the turn were a J instead?

[Marshall28]

if the turns a jack its like ... it's going to be a much more player dependent/dynamic dependent decision. you have to figure out like why he flats your checkraise. cuz a Q is definitely in his range. in most dynamics I set up, I'm checkraising this board so often and re-raising/getting it in w/ pairs JJ-88 sometimes worse if i can get villain to think im on a pure bluff often enough and to try to bluff me back.

like if this isn;t a play that u have done to him quite a few times, it;s probably conceivable that he thinks this is a wa/wb situation which would make good sense for him to flat a Q (all in a vacuum of course), in which case taking this line would only get value from TT-66 or whatever, and the J actually turns into much more of a scare card than the A (imo). J is scarier because I think the A is so commonly interpreted as a scare card to bluff that when betting here w/ a J you are probably folding out the entire range you are beating. (plus the fact that on a QJxx board you can have more hands that have a lot of equity against a range of small pairs than you might on a AQxx board. obv becuz of overcards + open enders or gutshots.

so answer would be no i guess i think it would be very bad to take this line if a jack falls. i would probably go into check/call mode but expect villain to c/b (CHECK BEHIND) turn so maybe i would try to get decent value on the river from hands u r beating while keeping the pot smaller the times hes holding a Q.

[griffey24]

I like it way way way more with an A turn than with a J turn.

I feel like if you're gonna get looked up, you'll potentially get looked up by some worse hands: KQ,KK or who knows some worse A even. I think your line looks somewhat bluffy (especially since the four card straight came in, and you're still pushig) and he might call you light, so your push is for sure for value.

I think if you do this on the J turn, then you're turning your hand into a bluff since all the likely hands to call you down are beating you obviously. If villain is capable of folding than it could be profitable on a J turn as well though, since he will also be scared of QJ (though not sure if he'd believe you would c/r flop with i it).

[microgrinder]

Are you saying that you're turning your hand into a bluff or making it look like a bluff for value?

Because I think there's way more value in worse hands calling than with better hands folding with the line taken here.

[will641]

Are you saying that you're turning your hand into a bluff or making it look like a bluff for value?

hes saying that he was bluffing the flop, but hit his Ace, and now there is a good chance we have the best hand. it took me a couple minutes to figure out that you werent saying this was a bluff too, lol.

[Genitruc]

it s thin but I think it's great

[will641]

also i think if you are going to get looked up by KK/KQ as someone mentioned, there are a ton of other hands that look you up here, as this, as ppl have pointed out, is almost always the nuts or air, so it doesnt really matter what he looks you up with as long as it beats air.

[microgrinder]

hes saying that he was bluffing the flop, but hit his Ace, and now there is a good chance we have the best hand. it took me a couple minutes to figure out that you werent saying this was a bluff too, lol.

Oh I think the title just confused me. IMO its probably a good value bet. Albeit thin.