AK, plot thickens

[drmcboy]

Stars 100 double stack freeze out, we're ITM, ave stack is about 40k

Button has been very aggresive and I was fist pump/calling him. About an hour ago he showed a couple bluffs in a row but of late has shown a couple good hands after getting folds pre.

BB seems terrible but hard to read. Once he limped UTG with K2s and a ~3BB stack in the blind whose shove he then called. Had not seen him raise or re raise much, limping was standard.

I have shown down about 3 hands in the last 30 mins or so - AA, AK and 49s, all pre flop against shorties, I have been stealing about once per orbit.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1600 (7 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

MP1 (t61675)
MP2 (t18900)
Hero (t67898)
Button (t25417)
SB (t12939)
BB (t55789)
UTG (t11740)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K, A.
3 folds, Hero raises to t4000, Button raises to t25267, 1 fold, BB calls t23667, , Hero ???

[Reidak]

BB could very well be thinking the exact same thing and be calling the loose buttons s raising range with AQ, TT+. I beleive againts his range we are ahead and are obviously crushing the buttons range.

Remember the button has shown a prepencity to bluff and the fact he has shown good hands pre is just him saying 'look.. im only raising good hands'

I would opt to shove in here. Folding isn't bad because your stack is so deep you don't need to take this risk but i feel the risk/reward ratio is great enough to do this.

[chardrian]

you'er likely counterfeited so a fold is fine.

you've a great chance to knock two players out, to more than double up and become a ginormous stack, so a call is fine.

[elipsesjeff]

i get it in

[mcatdog]

We have to call 51629 into a main pot of 79451 and a side pot of 60744. I put the BB on 99+, AK, AQs, and the Button on 55+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, AJo+, KQo. These ranges might be even be too tight. Good players are more likely to make a move if they haven't made one in awhile (which you said the Button hadn't).

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.946% 36.06% 09.88% 103746768 28425114.00 { AKs }
Hand 1: 54.054% 44.17% 09.88% 127070076 28425114.00 { 99+, AQs+, AKo }

Side pot equity: 27909

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.036% 27.36% 05.68% 6637931952 1377296978.00 { AKs }
Hand 1: 27.341% 25.75% 01.59% 6247338024 386245694.00 { 55+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 39.623% 34.77% 04.86% 8434911456 1178621696.00 { 99+, AQs+, AKo }

Main pot equity: 26247

Total: 54K

I also disagree with the philosophy that "either option is OK" in spots like this. That's true in small pots in the early levels but I strongly believe that in push-or-fold situations there's always a right play and a wrong play. If a call is +EV by nearly 2 BB (or more) then folding is flat out bad IMO.

[johnny_fish]

Meh I think the bb could very well be folding 99/AQs.. But I'm happily shipping AKs here and be very confused with AKo (and in the end ship that too lol).

[chardrian]

I agree there is always a right or wrong play, but to know what that is you need to have an exact range. And ranges aren't exact.

We can fiddle with them and have calling be correct, and then fiddle the other way and have folding be correct. That's all I am saying.