50NL: queens vs shortie

[d0zer]

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($48.75)
BB ($25.70)
Hero ($50.75)
UTG+1 ($103.15)
MP1 ($53.45)
MP2 ($19.25)
MP3 ($16.90)
CO ($9.25)
Button ($55.15)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q, Q.
Hero raises to $2, 2 folds, MP2 raises to $6.75, 5 folds, Hero ... ?

Villain like 11/3 over 30 hands.

Usually I push shorties with worse hands than this...but this one's tight if you consider 30 hands a read...

[daven]

fold

[pgil]

Have you done anything suspect in the 30 hands? Either way, I probably push and am fine either way it goes. He's got 40bb's and you have QQ. It would take you about that long to figure out you were beat against a full stack anyways, and you can't be bluffed out here. So you may as well go with it. As long as AK/JJ are in his 3bet range you are good. 30 hands does not make me fold queens.

[d0zer]

fold

How short would he have to be for you to push, nitty mc nitnit?

[dev]

felt it.
30 hands? That's like 2 pocket pairs and 3-4 ace/faces. I've run 4/4 over 100+ hands before at FR and I'm actually ~18/15.

Over 30 hands all sorts of crap can happen. It's not enough to make me think he's only got 2 hands in his range here.

[martindcx1e]

fold

this is a crime

[bjsaust]

30 hands? Man, you've got leaks if you're folding QQ to someone because of stats after 30 hands...

[d0zer]

30 hands? Man, you've got leaks if you're folding QQ to someone because of stats after 30 hands...

yay I pooshed and ran into bullets!


d0zerz obvious hand of the night # 2


end of thread.

[bjsaust]

So you think a short stack whom you've only seen play 30 hands will only 3-bet AA or KK?

[edit] Sorry, think I misunderstood what you were saying. Yeah, to me this was an easy push, and would be next time it comes up too. Well played.

[daven]

fold

How short would he have to be for you to push, nitty mc nitnit?

under 20bb.
and it's not even close.
low-variance FTW

[Jack Sawyer]

LOL @ folding

I mean, I haven't played FR in quite a while but
is this the state of things there?

[daven]

ok. Villain is 3-betting, not just opening. 3-betting at 50nl on FT is rare (d0zer, back me up on this one).

Even after 30 hands you have a read that villain isn't super-aggro pre. Most (seriously!) people here with pfr <12 have a 3-betting range of AA/KK/QQ/and only occasionally AK. That's it. Forget position, forget isolation.

So, even if 30hands is a small sample size, it's unlikely that villain has a broader than standard 3-betting range. So if op is lucky he's 50-50. FWIW, I usually 3-bet QQ, but only rarely 4-bet. Think about it, if villain had a full stack then what is the advice. Flat call and re-evaluate on flop? who suggests pushing for 100bb? am I right? but villain's stack size means you're either folding or playing for stacks.

Do you think you're really ahead >50% of the time here? zero fold equity, so you need to be ahead >50% for pushing OR calling to be +EV. So easy fold. With a read that villain is looser AND more aggro than the average at this limit, maybe it's worth playing. BUT, the limited read is that villain is tight.
That is all. It really isn't even remotely close. Pushing in the situations is the difference between +2BB/100 and +3BB/100.

pgil - aren't you forgetting that you also have good implied odds if opp has a full stack? but you don't have than liberty here

bring on the crucifixion

[pgil]

pgil - aren't you forgetting that you also have good implied odds if opp has a full stack? but you don't have than liberty here

My point was that basically, in order for (me at least) to fold QQ postflop, I will probably be investing pretty close to that amount anyways, especially since I am OOP. And there will always be the danger that I am being pushed off of the best hand. So, in this case, we lose the same amount as we would vs. a full stack, with no chance of being bluffed out, and no hard decisions for lots of chips later in the hand. Easy call, AK is in his range, as is JJ I am sure. If those aren't in a short stacks 3-bet range, then you are in some tight ass games and should be raising ATC from any position

[GatorJH]

One other thing to consider is the fact that villian is sitting there with less than 50 BB's. Unless he lost a big pot in the hand before I would think a "thinking" player wouldn't be sitting at the table with such a short stack.

On the other hand, if villian is playing over his roll then my guess is that he would be playing ultra tight which could take a hand like JJ or even AK0 out of his range.

Is this something that is typically taken into consideration?

[d0zer]

One other thing to consider is the fact that villian is sitting there with less than 50 BB's. Unless he lost a big pot in the hand before I would think a "thinking" player wouldn't be sitting at the table with such a short stack.

On the other hand, if villian is playing over his roll then my guess is that he would be playing ultra tight which could take a hand like JJ or even AK0 out of his range.

Is this something that is typically taken into consideration?

I run into an unfortunate amount of shorty nits at FTP 50NL who sit there with $10 or $20 stacks, and run about 5/5, waiting for JJ+/AK to push someone with. I worried that this was one of those types, but the fact that he limped isn't characteristic of those....

[dev]

ok. Villain is 3-betting, not just opening. 3-betting at 50nl on FT is rare (d0zer, back me up on this one).

Even after 30 hands you have a read that villain isn't super-aggro pre. Most (seriously!) people here with pfr <12 have a 3-betting range of AA/KK/QQ/and only occasionally AK. That's it. Forget position, forget isolation.

Shorties get agro lighter. It's like a law of nature.

So, even if 30hands is a small sample size, it's unlikely that villain has a broader than standard 3-betting range. So if op is lucky he's 50-50. FWIW, I usually 3-bet QQ, but only rarely 4-bet. Think about it, if villain had a full stack then what is the advice. Flat call and re-evaluate on flop? who suggests pushing for 100bb? am I right? but villain's stack size means you're either folding or playing for stacks.

Do you think you're really ahead >50% of the time here? zero fold equity, so you need to be ahead >50% for pushing OR calling to be +EV. So easy fold. With a read that villain is looser AND more aggro than the average at this limit, maybe it's worth playing. BUT, the limited read is that villain is tight.

9.50 in pot, 17.25 left in his stack, If we indeed have 0 FE, it's basically calling 17.25 into 26.75, which is 3:2. We need to be 40% here, not 50%.

That is all. It really isn't even remotely close. Pushing in the situations is the difference between +2BB/100 and +3BB/100.

Though I still disagree with you, I really like this way of looking at a given play, in terms of +/- BB/100.

pgil - aren't you forgetting that you also have good implied odds if opp has a full stack? but you don't have than liberty here

We also don't have the reverse implied odds that is the main weakness of the ladies.

[spoonitnow]

You stated earlier that a fold here is "low variance". Another low variance way to play hold'em would be to fold all hands preflop, but the fact that it's low-variance doesn't make it the correct way to play. Variance has nothing to do with making the correct play in this hand -- it's a simple EV calculation.

Even after 30 hands you have a read that villain isn't super-aggro pre.

This is your first mistake. The stats on villain after 30 hands don't matter much in this hand because to fold here would require us to be able to put villain on a very narrow range and we would need a much larger sample to do so.

Do you think you're really ahead >50% of the time here? zero fold equity, so you need to be ahead >50% for pushing OR calling to be +EV.

This is your second mistake. You don't have to be ahead >50% for pushing or calling to be +EV here. If we assume villain always calls (which he should), we're essentially shoving $17.25 to win $22 since it doesn't matter how much villain raised to since because we're playing for the whole stack, so we need only 43.95% equity to break even.

That is all. It really isn't even remotely close. Pushing in the situations is the difference between +2BB/100 and +3BB/100.

This is your third mistake, and first major fuck-up. Let me explain.

To address your mistake: You suggest that villain's range is QQ+, AK, but then you say it's not even close. Against the exact range QQ+, AK, we have a little over 40% equity, making this very close even if villain holds this exact range. Villain's range will hardly ever be this tight and any addition to this range makes the shove +EV, so it's an easy shove.

To address your major fuck-up: Everyone should be careful about being closed-minded and/or arrogant. I'm sorry, but 3 ptbb/100 is not that great of a win-rate for 50nl. In any case, no matter what anyone's win-rate is at any level, we should always be open-minded about our game to an appropriate extent.

[daven]

You suggest that villain's range is QQ+, AK

only a little bit of AK, but it's almost exclusively KK/AA cos there's only one possible combo of QQ out there and I don't think villain is playing AK like this most of the time.

But I do need to start using pokerstove and looking at hand odds - I've been meaning to do that for a while. Thanks for reminding me

Everyone should be careful about being closed-minded and/or arrogant.

arrogant is ok, but you're right, closed-minded is not. I decided to extend upon why i thought folding is the best option here so that I could have flaws in my thinking explained more thoroughly than

Man, you've got leaks if you're folding QQ to someone because of stats after 30 hands...

fold - this is a crime

cos I genuinely believe that folding is the best play here - and I want to know why i'm wrong - thanks for addressing this!

I'm sorry, but 3 ptbb/100 is not that great of a win-rate for 50nl.

agreed. I haven't figured out what a good win-rate would be there, i think there is a thread about it somewhere already. >5BB/100 would be looking pretty good, i hope to get there one day....
And sorry if it sounded like I was talking about my own winrate - I wasn't. I do believe that there ARE leaks that cost 1BB/100 but don't stop players winning - just winning less than they could be. Maybe this isn't one of them though.

[martindcx1e]

under 20bb.
and it's not even close.

lol nice try

[Deanglow]

Seriously I hope all of you guys that fold this move up to 2/4 soon. We have little to no reads and QQ against a retard stack. Easiest push ever. 1010 might be interesting.

[d0zer]

Seriously I hope all of you guys that fold this move up to 2/4 soon. We have little to no reads and QQ against a retard stack. Easiest push ever. 1010 might be interesting.

'retard stack'

Yeah my standard line here vs the unknown 'retard stack' is to shove JJ+ / AK. Often the latter winds up in a flip but sometimes runs into AQ, or even AJ/AT if the stack is 'retard' enough

TT I probably fold, unless it's a 1/5th stack instead of a 2/5th stack.

[spoonitnow]

You suggest that villain's range is QQ+, AK

only a little bit of AK, but it's almost exclusively KK/AA cos there's only one possible combo of QQ out there and I don't think villain is playing AK like this most of the time.

The underlined portion is probably what's causing you to play this incorrectly. Villain's range is a bit wider than you think.

And fwiw my above post wasn't personal.

[dev]

V is 4/4/inf/30
As a general rule, I don't play 3-bet pots OOP to see a flop. I reraise or fold the vast majority of the time. This pot came up and I thought of this thread, so I figured I'd post it.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (7 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

MP1 ($17.40)
MP2 ($19.85)
CO ($22.95)
Button ($24.90)
SB ($24.30)
BB ($24.75)
Hero ($47.30)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with , .
Hero raises to $1, 2 folds, CO raises to $3, 3 folds, Hero calls $2.

Flop: ($6.35) , , (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $4.5, Hero calls $4.50.

Turn: ($15.35) (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $15.45 (All-In), Hero calls $15.45.

I wasn't exactly playing to set hunt. I'm working on my play OOP and am still a bit shakey on how this should be played if a Q doesn't flop. He's too deep to push, and I don't know that my raising and him calling narrows his range at all. I've seen lots of players flat with aces or kings there.

[spoonitnow]

V is 4/4/inf/30

If this was over a relatively decent sample then you can fold to the 3-bet. Occasionally you might be folding to AK but it's better than the alternatives imo.