2/5 - 300bb hand with KK: Alexos vs Griffey24

[griffey24]

I'm gonna post this hand from Alexos perspective, cause its more interesting than from mine.

-This hand was part of a long session we had on many different tables.
-here are a couple of hands we played together before this hand in question:
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2269033
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2269036
http://www.pokerhand.org/?2269039

-This is what Alexos more or less had to say about the hand in his blog:
- it came after several hands of bluffing and numerous 3bet bluffing etc.
-I felt like although sets are definitly in his range here, us being this deep is a very good spot for him to bluff, since I can't call with much?

(sorry the usual hand converter doesn't seem to be working for the crypto sites)


Seat 1: cmonemakr ($500 in chips)
Seat 2: Griffey24 ($1693.55 in chips)
Seat 3: axelrodi ($493.40 in chips)
Seat 4: Alexos ($1649.70 in chips)
Seat 5: Raven ($493 in chips)
Seat 6: gubbe004 ($1127.20 in chips)
axelrodi: posts small blind $2
Alexos: posts big blind $5
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to Alexos :Kh: :Kc:
Raven: folds
gubbe004: raises to $20
Griffey24: calls $20
axelrodi: folds
Alexos: raises to $100
gubbe004: folds
Griffey24: calls $80
----- FLOP -----:Jh:
Alexos: bets $175
Griffey24: raises to $480
Alexos: ??

[Ash256]

I think this is a fucking brilliant spot to 4bet pre; am I stuck on level 0?

[griffey24]

I think this is a fucking brilliant spot to 4bet pre; am I stuck on level 0?

Who should 4-bet?

In this hand there was an EP raiser, I flat called (my hand is unknown), then Alexos squeezed from the blinds with KK and I flat called in position.

You suggesting that I should 4-bet in position after his squeeze? (no matter what hand?)

[sauce123]

i like ur line griffey tho id often 3bet pre

[Alexos]

u like his line regardless of his cards right?

meaning... i should get it in asap or what?

[griffey24]

I hope people realize that I posted this hand from Alexos' point of view!

I didn't have KK this hand, Alexos did. Maybe I'm misreading the replies, but it sounds like ppl think I had the kings..

[Numbr2intheWorld]

So how often is griffey 3-betting 66 or 44 pre here, and is he capable of flatting JJ?

Personally i think that you have to go all the way here, i just don't really know what to do.

[Ash256]

I think this is a fucking brilliant spot to 4bet pre; am I stuck on level 0?

Who should 4-bet?

In this hand there was an EP raiser, I flat called (my hand is unknown), then Alexos squeezed from the blinds with KK and I flat called in position.

You suggesting that I should 4-bet in position after his squeeze? (no matter what hand?)

I misread, I thought you'd flatcalled w/ Kings

[IowaSkinsFan]

His raise size smells like a hand so i fold and he probably doesn't think you're going to fold an overpair anyways.

[IowaSkinsFan]

I also doubt he turns a pp into a bluff on this board he'd probably wait for a 985 type board or something

[griffey24]

So how often is griffey 3-betting 66 or 44 pre here, and is he capable of flatting JJ?

Personally i think that you have to go all the way here, i just don't really know what to do.

I'd imagine that Alexos has played with me enough to notice this. But yah I do flat call quite a bit with solid hands (ie: flatting sometimes with TT/JJ/AQ and even AK sometimes - depending on who's opening and from where)

I have moods where I 3-bet galore, but I'd say in general I probably 3-bet less than most regulars in our game. Not sure if Alexos would agree or disagree with that.. thats my biased opinion of my play!

[Numbr2intheWorld]

eh ok i think small 3-bet on flop is goot.

[pocketfours]

330BB deep I'm pretty much playing AA/KK for set value. This should be folded very fast. Good draws and sets make up a big part of griffeys range here.

Just no way we can continue profitably here. In some very sick HU game I might play, but this is a clear fold.

[griffey24]

330BB deep I'm pretty much playing AA/KK for set value. This should be folded very fast. Good draws and sets make up a big part of griffeys range here.

Just no way we can continue profitably here. In some very sick HU game I might play, but this is a clear fold.

I agree with this. I think this is often the case for most players, that their range this deep is either strong draw/set or air. Like ISF said I doubt many ppl turn a midpair type hand into a bluff on this board by raising here and bloating the pot.

That being said, its likely a wa/wb situation for Alexos so I'm not sure how much I like him 3-betting this flop. How do people feel about Alexos calling and re-evaluting turn?

[Marshall28]

i dont get the flat, then the overcall of the 3bet ... this screams like a donkish type play to me and turns your hand face-up ? nobody agrees w/ this?

(i dont know what u had, if u had aces, i dont see why not 4bet over his squeeze since u set the situation up perfectly, but if u have something like a med pr ... like why do u want to give him so much info? u will have to just fold to his c-bet so much cuz his range is weighted so much more heavily towards big pairs when 3betting out of the blinds (even if he is getting out of line, fact is, u cant know that).

i like your flop raise based on your pf play, but its a question of dynamics .. if youve been fighting, in his spot i find it hard to believe im beat and lay this down. lol i might possibly be leveling myself here but for the same reason i like the raise, it seems too transparent from his perspective. id flat and crai on turn if it's battle situation. god, 300bb is so tough, maybe this is just bad game selection? lol ... everything i just typed was thinking out loud, im inexperienced in these situations so don't listen to me too much

[Alexos]

Most of these comments in this thread make a lot of sense, but it is clear we are not all thinking on the same level. P4 I understand this deep we shouldn't be playing for stacks with AA/KK theoretically, but beyond a certain limit won't you get run over completly if you think that way?

It just seems so weak to me to fold here when you're facing a good opponent that will probably take advantage of the fact we're deep.

Anybody like calling here and getting it in on a non-heart turn as opposed to shoving right away, assuming we wanna stack off?

If the board is J64 rainbow then his range is a lot more sets/air and I'd def be more inclined to fold..maybe

[Marshall28]

alexos im def w/ u ... obv by my first response i confused myself a bit, but i think u r dead on about the fact that u r gonna get run over by a good player by not playing for stacks w/ AA/KK in this spot. i know id be trying to abuse u w/ position this deep knowing it's incredibly hard for u to continue w/out like a set.

anyways like i said, w/ history i def like flatting and crai on a non heart turn. but probly best to just stay away from super high variance situations like this ???

[pocketfours]

Most of these comments in this thread make a lot of sense, but it is clear we are not all thinking on the same level. P4 I understand this deep we shouldn't be playing for stacks with AA/KK theoretically, but beyond a certain limit won't you get run over completly if you think that way?

Hmmm, this is exactly what your villain wants you to think and it's pretty bad. You need to play back at him the same way and force HIM to make the mistake of playing for stacks with a one pair hand.

You should clearly see that if you hold AA/KK and villain holds 22-QQ, but you are willing to play for stakcs on most Q, J or T high flops, then villain has a far better hand than you preflop and a huge +EV situation.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Most of these comments in this thread make a lot of sense, but it is clear we are not all thinking on the same level. P4 I understand this deep we shouldn't be playing for stacks with AA/KK theoretically, but beyond a certain limit won't you get run over completly if you think that way?

Hmmm, this is exactly what your villain wants you to think and it's pretty bad. You need to play back at him the same way and force HIM to make the mistake of playing for stacks with a one pair hand.

You should clearly see that if you hold AA/KK and villain holds 22-QQ, but you are willing to play for stakcs on most Q, J or T high flops, then villain has a far better hand than you preflop and a huge +EV situation.

100% agree with p4's.

[Marshall28]

ISF and P4's ... I like the points you make, but if you want to look at the situation like that doesn't it just basically constantly put you in sick spots w/ AA/KK here against any solid villain that we know will call loosely in position because of the fact that he knows he can abuse the situation?

or am i taking this a level too far?

i mean ... like can we come up w/ a more optimal line than b/f the flop in alexos situation if u feel so solid in your stance?

[pocketfours]

ISF and P4's ... I like the points you make, but if you want to look at the situation like that doesn't it just basically constantly put you in sick spots w/ AA/KK here against any solid villain that we know will call loosely in position because of the fact that he knows he can abuse the situation?

Well yes and no. Here we forced villain to put in 100BB:s in the pot to get us off the overpair and I don't think most players are willing to do that in every hand. If they are, well then we need to adjust, but let's be reasonable.

You can't 'abuse' the situation, you can only abuse your opponents lack of abilities playing deep. Semibluffs go way up in EV because FE is usually much higher. Two draws playing aggro very often leads to huge pots because it's so easy to commit yourself.

or am i taking this a level too far?

i mean ... like can we come up w/ a more optimal line than b/f the flop in alexos situation if u feel so solid in your stance?

We've got a marginal made hand that we don't want to play for stacks but we don't want to give free cards either. B/f flop seems best but c/c flop and lead blank turn could be another option. If you have a trappy image then c/c flop and c/c turn sometimes good too. We're still playing hold'em

[IowaSkinsFan]

I can't stress how F***ing crucial flop timing is here. If he raised without thinking that much is much different than if he raised after thinking till a time bank warning appears.

C/r is by far our worst option btw, just thought I'd throw that out there . C/c all the way is pretty interesting though, versus some players it may be the best line but probably not in this scenario.

If I'm griffey though, I'm not sure I like raising here with any of our range. There's too much info that Alexos can give away on later streets in such a shitty spot, and we can still play for stacks if we flat with a set. What do you guys think?

[pocketfours]

If I'm griffey though, I'm not sure I like raising here with any of our range. There's too much info that Alexos can give away on later streets in such a shitty spot, and we can still play for stacks if we flat with a set. What do you guys think?

There's a lot of potentially bad turn cards for a set, such as any heart, J, 6, 4 or 5 for a total of 20 cards, including our pair.

I also don't think Alexos will give us a free card on the turn if all draws miss, but that's good if we have a set and bad if we have a draw.

I think I would prefer to mainly raise a set and good draws here but mix it up (sometimes raise, sometimes float) with one pair, overcards and mediocre to weak draws that I could fold on the turn if I missed and Alexos bet again. A missed PP < JJ I would always fold to this bet. With QQ and top pair I would call flop and give up. AA/KK are not in my range.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

If I'm griffey though, I'm not sure I like raising here with any of our range. There's too much info that Alexos can give away on later streets in such a shitty spot, and we can still play for stacks if we flat with a set. What do you guys think?

Well given that most players looking at this hand don't want to fold (including me) raising with a set can't be bad.

I think i need to think about this hand more cause it's reminding how bad i am deep.

[griffey24]

I can't stress how F***ing crucial flop timing is here. If he raised without thinking that much is much different than if he raised after thinking till a time bank warning appears.

C/r is by far our worst option btw, just thought I'd throw that out there . C/c all the way is pretty interesting though, versus some players it may be the best line but probably not in this scenario.

If I'm griffey though, I'm not sure I like raising here with any of our range. There's too much info that Alexos can give away on later streets in such a shitty spot, and we can still play for stacks if we flat with a set. What do you guys think?

I was talking to Alexos about timing in this hand. In general, I'd say I do most of my decisions pretty quickly as a whole. He says I insta-called his squeeze preflop.

From what I recall, I waited several seconds on the flop before raising his cont bet. I'm pretty sure I was thinking of a good size to raise to. I'd say about 5 seconds.

[IowaSkinsFan]

5 seconds makes me want to fold.

[Alexos]

I recall it was pretty quick. More like 2-3 seconds actually, and 1/4 of a second preflop

[griffey24]

I'm gonna try and figure out what percentage of time I have to be bluffing here to make pushing an overpair profitable. Let X be fraction of time I am bluffing.

I think hero's EV is pretty low if he pushes and I call him:

Board: Jh 6d 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.389% 28.39% 00.00% 52275 0.00 { QQ+ }
Hand 1: 71.611% 71.61% 00.00% 131865 0.00 { 66, 44, AhQh, AhTh, Ah6h, 7h6h, 6h5h }

EV of push and call for Hero = (1-X)*(.284)*$1649.70 - (1-X)*(.716)*1649.70
= (1-X)*468.51 - 1181.18
= -712.67 (1-X)

EV of push and fold by Hero = X*875 (money in pot already)

Total EV = -712.67+712.67X+875X
X = 44.9% for breakeven

So I have to be bluffing with air here, or raising some weaker hand/flush draw on the flop that I can't call a push with about 44.9% of the time.
(does that look right? I don't do these EV calcs too much!)

In any case, I don't think I'd be bluffing/semi bluffing here that often with a hand I wasn't prepared to stack with. I think this should be a fold.

[griffey24]

For this results oriented: I had AhQh in this hand, and Alexos shoved and I called the shove.

(spiked the A on turn, shiiiiiiip it!)


Standard with AhQh once I get to the flop obviously, but my preflop play can be debated I'm sure.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Alright, i was wrong! Really thought there was no chance you had a flush draw with that timing .

[The Odds God]

sick hand, didn't reply before, because I don't know wtf to do here, it depends so much on history, but for 300BB's, it is a sick for him to stack off with overpair.