nl10 AA 3bet pot w/ KQJ flop

[Robb]

Villain is unknown.

$0.05/$0.1 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($22.12)
CO ($19.00)
BTN ($16.67)
SB ($1.95)
Hero ($10.10)

Pre-flop: ($0.15, 5 players) Hero is BB
UTG raises to $0.2, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.2, SB calls $0.15, Hero raises to $1.5, UTG folds, BTN calls $1.3, SB folds

Flop: ($3.4, 2 players)
Hero bets $2.5, BTN raises to $14.8, Hero ??

Full hand: http://weaktight.com/138106

[Muzzard]

Sick, fold. Range is JJ/QQ and 2P hands, you aret ahead here often enough to call.

[Robb]

Sick, fold. Range is JJ/QQ and 2P hands

AK, AQ, AJ, ATs, JTs, TT??

[dev]

he limped on the button, we can at least put TT and JT in his range.

[microgrinder]

Snap call because of pot odds.
You're getting better than 2:1. Easily ahead of even the worst possible ranges.

Edit: even this is close, lol. (I put in every single hand that you're behind except for T9.)

Board: Ks Qh Jd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.883% 69.37% 01.51% 181305 3955.50 { KK-JJ, ATs, KJs+, QJs, ATo, KJo+, QJo }
Hand 1: 29.117% 27.60% 01.51% 72144 3955.50 { AA }

[martindcx1e]

Edited cuz I'm dumb.

[microgrinder]

ok well micro we have to fold with the range that you made up. it's $12.30 to win $20.70 so 71 times we lose $12.30 which totals $873.30 and 29 times we win $20.70 which totals $600.30. 600.3 - 873.3 = -273 so that is -EV.

IMO we only have 6.1$ behind.

Wait.... did I just advocate snap calling and you came back to dispute why we have to call? I iz confused

[martindcx1e]

sorry for confusion. i was advocating a call but with a wider range, but messed up stack sizes. it's break-even with your range, which is too tight so this is a call.

[microgrinder]

sorry for confusion. i was advocating a call but with a wider range. if you use your range then it's a fold. we have 6 behind so it's 6 to win 12 basically right? so with your range it's 70 x -6 = -420 and 30 x 12 = +360 which is -EV.

Oh I was just giving the absolute worst possible range, it's not a realistic range. I think I worked it out that we need 29-30% to call or something with the pot odds given, so its pretty much a wash vs the absolute worst of the worst ranges and therefore is a very easy call.

Sorry, for my post was sort of confusing. The range you gave is more accurate to what he holds.

[wufwugy]

big pot and nine outs against 2p

[Fnord]

You're potstuck.

[nutsinho]

check flop

[Robb]

check flop

I wanted to see the turn 'cuz I have 9 solid outs (2 Aces, 4 Tens and 3 of whatever KQJ he doesn't have making his 2 pair), maybe more. So the bet on the flop was a blocking bet.

Not saying it was the right thing to do...

[martindcx1e]

sorry for confusion. i was advocating a call but with a wider range. if you use your range then it's a fold. we have 6 behind so it's 6 to win 12 basically right? so with your range it's 70 x -6 = -420 and 30 x 12 = +360 which is -EV.

Oh I was just giving the absolute worst possible range, it's not a realistic range. I think I worked it out that we need 29-30% to call or something with the pot odds given, so its pretty much a wash vs the absolute worst of the worst ranges and therefore is a very easy call.

Sorry, for my post was sort of confusing. The range you gave is more accurate to what he holds.

ya your range was fine just to show that it's not even an -EV call given the worst possible range. good work. disregard my calcs. i was stupid yesterday

[ZwiFT]

This is a easy snap call