Oh good god

[dalecooper]

Villain is 28/10/3.7 over 100 hands. No specific read on him other than that.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP ($27.20)
CO ($10.15)
Button ($27.90)
SB ($31.75)
BB ($23.55)
Hero ($47.40)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q, A.
Hero raises to $0.85, 1 fold, CO calls $0.85, 1 fold, SB calls $0.75, 1 fold.

Flop: ($2.80) Q, 2, T (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2.75, CO calls $2.75, SB calls $2.75.

Turn: ($11.05) A (3 players)
SB bets $28.15 (All-In), Hero...

[Roel]

uugh. ugly. I call and get shown KJ here probably. Although he could do this with any 2 pair. Or a set? he wouldn't play KJ like this would he?

Hmm i call. don't like it, but i call cause there's just too many other hands he could do this with.

edit: maybe even any two spades or diamonds

[nutsinho]

sick...i would fold

[nutsinho]

unless hes been spazzy postflop before, in which case i would fistpumpsnapcall. but i would fold if i hadnt seen a similar move from him turn out to be something silly.

[martindcx1e]

i would vomit and probably time out

[martindcx1e]

edit: maybe even any two spades or diamonds

ppl don't do this with flush draws in this spot usually.

[martindcx1e]

hey nuts i just noticed you are the first ftr'er i've seen with a worse wpp than me...grats!

[dalecooper]

unless hes been spazzy postflop before, in which case i would fistpumpsnapcall. but i would fold if i hadnt seen a similar move from him turn out to be something silly.

Right, that was my thought as well. It seemed way too much like "pay this shit off!" and not much like a spazz play. This was the first huge overbet I had seen from him actually. His play had been otherwise unremarkable.

[Roel]

ppl don't do this with flush draws in this spot usually.

maybe not but i haven't played 25NL for a while. But KJ doesn't make much sense either, right? Open-shove the nuts? He must be playing pretty scared then.

So what do we put him on? I'd say some sort of big combo draw.

[dalecooper]

maybe not but i haven't played 25NL for a while. But KJ doesn't make much sense either, right? Open-shove the nuts? He must be playing pretty scared then.

People do this more at 25NL than you'd think, especially given a few factors here:

1. He has reason to believe I will call since I've showed a lot of aggression so far.
2. He has an even stronger reason to believe the short stack will call, since most of them don't fold after the preflop and flop call.
3. He does have two possible draws (and maybe others like my 2 pair) to worry about.
4. He's open-shoving but the pot is already substantial. If I fold and the short stack calls that's a pretty decent result for the nuts already; if I call too it's gravy.

[martindcx1e]

maybe not but i haven't played 25NL for a while. But KJ doesn't make much sense either, right? Open-shove the nuts? He must be playing pretty scared then.

ya ppl shove the nuts all the time at ftp 25nl.

[Roel]

Hmm yeah i can see how it is actually not such a bad move at all. especially with about half the deck as river scare card. but u guys think he has the str8 here such a high % of the time that it makes this a fold? You crush like any two pair.

Just not used to $11 being a sizeable pot i guess.

[dalecooper]

What are the possible two pair hands here even?

T2: highly unlikely with his stats and position

Q2: same

AQ: somewhat likely, and we'd split the pot (but I'd expect AQ to 3-bet preflop sometimes, donk out on that flop pretty often, and check-raise on that flop pretty often; and he did none of those things)

AT: somewhat likely, although that flop check-call with AT is really weak given the action, and the turn shove is pretty asinine if that's what he has

A2: not very likely, and if he has A2 his play on every street is atrocious

I don't put him on a draw at all. I think KJ is his most likely hand by far, with a set of twos after that.

[Ash256]

Why is AsXs so unlikely?

[dalecooper]

Why is AsXs so unlikely?

Through the turn it's reasonably likely, but I don't know how much he open-shoves that hand knowing it's very likely going to showdown against at least one of us (probably the short stack). If it's a semibluff it's a stupid one, since there's just one card to come and his fold equity is very low.

Or perhaps more meaningfully, because I don't see much of this on those tables. The same people who would open shove that turn with AsXs would probably be willing to donk out or even check-raise push on the flop with that hand. His flop and turn actions are inconsistent for that hand.

[microgrinder]

Without better reads I call. Not overly surprised if I see KJ,22 or TT though.

[dalecooper]

Results in white for those who'd prefer not to know:

I folded. Short stack called, and the guy had KJ.

[EzDuzIt]

if after seeing the results i dont think i would lay it down.

[dalecooper]

if after seeing the results i dont think i would lay it down.

I don't know if my decision was technically correct or not, but after running my timer most of the way down I had a bad feeling he had KJ, which is why I let it go. I could barely imagine him having a few other hands, but KJ was the one that seemed most likely, and his open push didn't make the pot odds that inviting.

[Miffed22001]

i think this is seriously an easy laydown.
Whether or not opp has KJ any type of hand he had on the flop that plays a turn so oddly still has us crushed, im thinking sets mostly.
What other type of hands is opp going to play this way?
We are crushed by opps range her and its an easy fold. Just because we improved to two pair didnt really make any difference, we dont beat anything much, certainly not a large part of any range

[nutsinho]

hey nuts i just noticed you are the first ftr'er i've seen with a worse wpp than me...grats!

ty

[EzDuzIt]

nobody's is lower than mine

[martindcx1e]

nobody's is lower than mine

we are not worthy!

[IowaSkinsFan]

First off, the fact that this thread has gotten as long as it is concerns me. Marginal calls with very little chance of our opponent bluffing teach you nothing, or not very much at all. People should all together stop posting these hands, because the answer is normally flip a coin. They tend to be the focus of low stakes players, who feel like if they could be a tiny bit better at folding there game would improve. This is not the case.

Secondly, this hand is a call, because in my mind AT and KJ are equally likely. There's arguments for and against opp having both hands, but in the end it seems like they are both equally likely. Add a occasional spazz bluff or something random like AK/AJ or w/e hand, even A9 maybe, a misclick, I'd give that at least 5% weight in his range.

Therefore, call it.

[IowaSkinsFan]

gabe says he'd fold A2 and given my range id ostensibly agree.

[gabe]

dammit i used to have the best wpp but all the commune posts ruined it

[IowaSkinsFan]

Well at least i said your response for you, helped you keep your wpp down!

[Ragnar4]

looks like a .25 setline to me. Fold and be ticked about it.

[Renton]

i would snap call

[microgrinder]

First off, the fact that this thread has gotten as long as it is concerns me. Marginal calls with very little chance of our opponent bluffing teach you nothing, or not very much at all. People should all together stop posting these hands, because the answer is normally flip a coin. They tend to be the focus of low stakes players, who feel like if they could be a tiny bit better at folding there game would improve. This is not the case.

Secondly, this hand is a call, because in my mind AT and KJ are equally likely. There's arguments for and against opp having both hands, but in the end it seems like they are both equally likely. Add a occasional spazz bluff or something random like AK/AJ or w/e hand, even A9 maybe, a misclick, I'd give that at least 5% weight in his range.

Therefore, call it.

Good post, I completely agree.

[Roel]

If it's a semibluff it's a stupid one, ...

... and therefore very unlikely?

[IowaSkinsFan]

looks like a .25 setline to me. Fold and be ticked about it.

Why do you think it's a set line?

[dev]

looks like a .25 setline to me. Fold and be ticked about it.

Why do you think it's a set line?

The guy held out on the flop, but it's a scary turn card in a lot of ways. It's almost like moving in to find out where you are in the hand. I thought set was likely there, too.

[nutsinho]

It's almost like moving in to find out where you are in the hand.

wat

[will641]

It's almost like moving in to find out where you are in the hand.

wat

its called the information shove, nuts. its a really advanced technique tho.

[IowaSkinsFan]

If it's a semibluff it's a stupid one, ...

... and therefore very unlikely?

I actually like this point. The guy overshoved the turn by 4 times the pot. We know he's stupid, so why are we taking stupid decisions out of his range? I'm not saying a fd is likely, its very very unlikely, i'd weight it prob 2-5%. But you can't expect this guy to be thinking on a high level.

[dalecooper]

If it's a semibluff it's a stupid one, ...

... and therefore very unlikely?

I actually like this point. The guy overshoved the turn by 4 times the pot. We know he's stupid, so why are we taking stupid decisions out of his range?

I'm not saying he's Einstein, but there are other factors at play here:

- It's a protected pot. Shorty is probably not folding. If there was any scenario where open-shoving the nuts was bound to work out at least reasonably well, this is it.

- Stupidity is game-relative. If you found that this shove in this exact situation (or close enough to it) carried greater EV than a regular bet or check-raise or whatever, wouldn't you do it? I think this kind of play happens a lot at 25NL because it gets called a lot, specifically in hands with this kind of action (several players, a preflop raiser who clearly has something, a short stack who clearly isn't folding). Against higher level games this is probably retarded, but in a game where half the players can't fold and the other half are more likely to fold to a small bet than a big one, this play isn't actually atrocious. (Personally, though, I think a check-raise to catch & stack me is significantly better. That ace hits my range pretty hard, I've already shown a lot of interest - why not give me one more chance to commit myself completely before pulling this trigger? I'm actually glad he did this - if he'd checked it to me I would have certainly made a big bet and felt obligated to go to showdown.)

- This is his first obviously "stupid" play since I've been sitting with him - his first overbet of any sort. That alone pushes me toward thinking it's a get-paid play rather than a bluff. The huge-overbet-bluff-on-a-protected-pot types are usually good for more than one of these every hundred hands.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Okay I agree with that reasoning somewhat. Although, if your still arguing that it is a fold... its still a snap call.

[dalecooper]

Okay I agree with that reasoning somewhat. Although, if your still arguing that it is a fold... its still a snap call.

Fair enough. I don't know about a snap call, but it may be a call - which is why I posted it. My judgement on this was definitely tainted by the results. Which brings me to an embarrassing revelation about my decision here: I knew the short stack was going to take it to showdown and I knew because of that, even if I folded, I'd still find out what he had. I realize one is supposed to make decisions based on EV and not curiosity, but that probably nudged me over from "damn, maybe I have to call" to "wouldn't it be awesome if I folded and then I find out 3 seconds later that he has KJ?" Bad poker, perhaps, but it gave me a warm feeling in my tummy 'n shit.

[dev]

It's almost like moving in to find out where you are in the hand.

wat

It happens a lot at lower limits in casino cash games. I can't even count how many times I've seen someone move in with a hand because they just didn't know what else to do.

[wufwugy]

Fold only if we're folding to a check/jam. We're not folding to a check/jam so don't fold. If our hand is a felter via a few standard lines then much isn't changed with non-standard lines.

Having said that, poker isn't just all standards. If you're feeling it, you're feeling it. Nice feel OP.

[Cocco_Bill]

I dont know the game dynamics of 25nl, but in my eyes it certaintly looks like a snap call.

Could be a weirdly/badly played KJ, but more probably he will make this donk move with a wider range of hands than you are lead to believe. The key to beating small stakes (to some degree any stakes) isn't' about learning how to fold top 2 against a set in a situations where its impossible to desipher your fish opponents thought process.

[IowaSkinsFan]

I dont know the game dynamics of 25nl, but in my eyes it certaintly looks like a snap call.

Could be a weirdly/badly played KJ, but more probably he will make this donk move with a wider range of hands than you are lead to believe. The key to beating small stakes (to some degree any stakes) isn't' about learning how to fold top 2 against a set in a situations where its impossible to desipher your fish opponents thought process.

[dalecooper]

The key to beating small stakes (to some degree any stakes) isn't' about learning how to fold top 2 against a set in a situations where its impossible to desipher your fish opponents thought process.

I actually agree strongly with this - I didn't intend for this post to be any kind of lesson on folding good hands. Just yesterday I played a hand that went down like this (hand history not available at the moment, sorry):

- UTG+1 makes a standard 3xBB preflop raise.
- I re-raise from the big blind with AA. UTG+1 calls.
- Flop is TT4 rainbow. I check, UTG+1 checks.
- Turn is a king that puts a flush draw on the board. I bet the pot, UTG+1 flat calls.
- River is an offsuit nine. I check, UTG+1 shoves for about 30% more than the pot size, I snap-call and stack him. He had KQo.

My decisions throughout and especially the river check/call were motivated by knowing that my opponent was a serious aggrodonk. He could have shown up there with QJ or 44 or some hand with a ten in it, but I knew a large part of his range was middle pairs, a lone king, and missed draws or air. This was a read exactly opposite of the one originally posted in this thread - just a different player, different situation (i.e. there were only two of us in the pot and I'd shown weakness by checking twice), and a VERY different range of hands.

[bjsaust]

This turn overbet-shove at low stakes is often a weak hand who assumes you're drawing rather than a strong hand. I've seen folks do this with middle pair before.

[nutsinho]

This turn overbet-shove at low stakes is often a weak hand who assumes you're drawing rather than a strong hand. I've seen folks do this with middle pair before.

have to analyze board texture. most donks dont assume youre drawing when you raised preflop and an ace hits the board

[bjsaust]

True, that doesnt really fit this board.

[Ragnar4]

looks like a .25 setline to me. Fold and be ticked about it.

Why do you think it's a set line?

Mostly because I've used this as a setline. Get it all in on the turn with the open shove.

I think the most applicable statement that can be made about this shove is from Sklansky's No Limit Holdem. Where he suggests, that your opponents history stops mattering the moment he makes a huge bet. I just don't think may players a 25nl do this without a set or better. Hell I don't see it at 10nl and I'm looking for it. I pray for it.

You guys say this garbage is supposed to happen all the time, that my opponents suck goatjuice and that they'll stack off with air. The only one I ever see stacking off is me... with Top 2... against a turn shove. I'm terrified of 2 pair... it pretty much sucks. If he's not folding to my raise, or calling my shove, I'm done with it.

[eugmac]

If he's not folding to my raise, or calling my shove, I'm done with it.

That's probably a leak.

I pretty much always pay off the set or KJ here. But I'm a station, w/e.

[Galapogos]

I call this always.


Sincerely,
Galapogos

[Renton]

looks like a .25 setline to me. Fold and be ticked about it.

Why do you think it's a set line?

Mostly because I've used this as a setline.

playing a big hand in a way that "tricks" turned top two into stacking off seems unequivocally bad to me.

Don't you want to maximize vs top pair and other mid strength hands?

[will641]

looks like a .25 setline to me. Fold and be ticked about it.

Why do you think it's a set line?

Mostly because I've used this as a setline.

playing a big hand in a way that "tricks" turned top two into stacking off seems unequivocally bad to me.

Don't you want to maximize vs top pair and other mid strength hands?

this is a very good point. they are way more likely to have TP or some hand that you could easily get 2 or 3 streets of value from, than 2p or lower set that is likely going to stack off anyways.

[Ragnar4]

looks like a .25 setline to me. Fold and be ticked about it.

Why do you think it's a set line?

Mostly because I've used this as a setline.

playing a big hand in a way that "tricks" turned top two into stacking off seems unequivocally bad to me.

Don't you want to maximize vs top pair and other mid strength hands?

I do want to maximize against top pair and other mid-strenght hands. But are you 100% positive that he has that here? or are you talking about my set-line?

[Roel]

If he's not calling my shove, I'm done with it.

lol

mind if i use this for my signature?

[Ragnar4]

lol.. nope.

Obviously the point I was making with your bastardized version of my statement, is that If I'm not the aggressor I have a really hard time with the hand.

[eugmac]

LDO. Pushing him off top pair helps our opponent play correctly.

looks like a .25 setline to me. Fold and be ticked about it.

Why do you think it's a set line?

Mostly because I've used this as a setline.

playing a big hand in a way that "tricks" turned top two into stacking off seems unequivocally bad to me.

Don't you want to maximize vs top pair and other mid strength hands?

I do want to maximize against top pair and other mid-strenght hands. But are you 100% positive that he has that here? or are you talking about my set-line?