KQ on AKQ board for stacks: 25nl

[Robb]

Villain is 32/7/3.5 over 100 hands. I've seen him 3bet and 2barrel relentlessly. I've been waiting to play deep stack poker in position.

$0.1/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG $70.96
Hero $37.05
CO $22.82
BTN $9.40
SB $11.03
BB $41.37

Pre-flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is UTG 1 :Kc: :Qh:
UTG calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.1, 4 folds, UTG calls $0.85

Flop: :Ac: :Kh: :Qd: ($2.55, 2 players)
UTG bets $1, Hero raises to $4.3, UTG raises to $15.1, Hero ???



Assuming any two broadway cards could be in his hand, PokerStove shows a coin flip:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.362% 45.70% 03.66% 119731275 9588779.00 { KcQh }
Hand 1: 50.638% 46.98% 03.66% 123073679 9588779.00 { TT+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

My reasoning went as follows. He wouldn't limp/call AA, KK, QQ, JJ or AK. So the only hands in his range that have me dominated are AQ and JT. But his betting makes weak broadways like QT unlikely, too. He obviously has some kind of draw to go with his hand, right? So should Hero shove here?

For the results: http://weaktight.com/176425

[Fnord]

You got the sucker end of the monster range here. Do you really think he'd bluff into a PFR on this board?

[nutsinho]

making a large raise on the flop is probably rather bad unless he is a huge donk

[Robb]

You got the sucker end of the monster range here. Do you really think he'd bluff into a PFR on this board?

Bluff, no. Semi-bluff, yes. I thought he caught a piece of the flop. Unsure how much.

[Alexos]

I think your raise size on the flop is fine. Pretty sick spot not sure what id do but prolly fold..

It's easier to put him on a pair + draw on JQT or JQK boards which are significantly easier to stack off on with any 2-pair.

[Robb]

Thanks for advice. I know how the hand played out, so it's hard to not be results oriented. The hand he had really caught me off guard - I didn't have it in my original estimate of his limp/call UTG range.

While I'm some dumb, I ain't plumb dumb. So I started thinking about AA, KK, AK, QQ and JT even though they didn't match preflop imo (JT more than the others). But I'll admit this hand confused the crap out of me.

[swiggidy]

The 32 should be the big clue. They may have heard about position, but they don't understand it.

I wonder how someone who plays that many hands has such a high AF. I wonder if these are the players who open every pot for 1bb.