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 Originally Posted by nutsinho
p4s your thinking for hand 1 is flawed and sauce is definitely right. checking behind on the turn is 'standard' for some good players with 5x because raising flop and betting turn reps a shitload of strength, and opponent is likely to be weak even after calling flop since its a blind battle on a dry board, so they try to make it look like something else by checking turn. only terrible players or opponents we have a ton of history with would raise a weak jack on this flop so that's out of the equation.
I think I can disagree with you on this  Let's see if we can learn something here.
First of all you make some contradicting statements:
One: 'opponent is likely to be weak even after calling flop since its a blind battle on a dry board'
Two: 'only terrible players or opponents we have a ton of history with would raise a weak jack on this flop'
I would argue that calling a flop raise OOP on a dry board in a blind battle with a weak holding (say 99 or TJ) is something only a terrible player would do (you are OOP, you can only beat a bluff, you have almost no way to improve and you are against an aggro opponent - no good). I think we need at least QJ here.
In the second statement you assume that villain will play perfectly (not raise flop), but still you think he will base his decisions on the assumption that we are playing badly (call flop raise weak)? That cannot be correct, since in order to play perfectly you need to assume that villain is playing perfectly also.
I would still like to hear why a flop raise with a weak jack such as J9 would be horrible. A raise folds all worse hands and gets a call or a reraise from all better hands. While that seems like a bad thing, it makes playing the hand easy for us and we avoid making mistakes on later streets (we are planning to fold to any action). In addition to that we are protecting our hand, which is a good thing.
To me it seems like there is only one play that can possibly be better than a raise, and that is a call+shut down. Calling the flop AND a second barrel on the turn is clearly the worst play here. But that's a play I see people making over and over again (against AF 3.2, dry board, BvB) because they don't want to be run over.
Let's say we have three options with J9 on the flop, facing a cbet:
1. Raise and shut down.
2. Call flop and bet turn if villain checks.
3. Call flop and shut down.
Analyzing these options:
1. We will usually win if we have the best hand but usually loose 1 additional bet when we have the worst hand.
2. Same as nr1, but now we give one free card + we sometimes loose with the best hand if villain fires another barrel on the turn. We also get one 'free' card ourselves, but another nine will often give us a better second best hand (against an overpair). We also loose one additional bet if villain checks.
3. Here we never loose the additional bet, but we give two free cards.
To me it seems clear that one and three are the two best choices (since 1. and 2. costs us as much, but 2. will only protect our hand for a single street). Paying one extra bet to protect our hand and minimize the risk of being bluffed off the best hand seems like a decent proposition, and I certainly don't think it's something only a horrible player would do (at least I would do it sometimes, but perhaps that's no proof). A big part of the equation is balancing your range: how often do you want to raise this flop with air - if you only want to raise it with trips or air, then you better not bluff at it very often.
Now back to whether we want to check behind our trips on the turn. Let's divide the OOP hand into three ranges:
1. Strong made hands, such as overpairs. If villain is strong, then betting the turn increases our chances of getting his entire stack since he might c/c the river or fold to a shove.
2. A medium strength hands, such as KJ. Villain is somewhat more likely to call a river bet than a turn bet.
3. A weak made hand, such as a medium PP. It will be very hard to get a single additional bet from villain. He shouldn't even have called the flop with this garbage.
To me checking behind and betting the turn seems to about as good. I think that 'repping a shitload of strength' just means you are polarizing your range, which can increase the possibility of being called down by bluffcatchers, so I probably still prefer the bet. I guess I would need some more justification to risk sacrificing value by being tricky here.
Finally we can think about the river (to c/c or to bet). The reason why I think a bet is better, is that in my opinion villain can't assume that we will call his flop raise with a weak hand, and therefore he should not vb thin OR bluff bet this river (so a bet should work better against AJ/KJ/QJ). The biggest reason for a c/c is to protect ourself from being bluffed, and I don't think that weighs quite enough, but this is probably pretty close.
I thought this hand was pretty interesting so I wanted to go through this for myself one more time. I hope somebody learned something The decisions here seem to be pretty close and should probably be made based on how you want to balance your plays (and how you think villain is balancing his plays).
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3/6 - 2 QQ hands
Q
J
($234, 2 players)
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