|
|
 Example of the importance of ICM
Well, as someone in IRC said, its less ICM and more just dumb, but makes for a nice analysis hand:
Hero is me, blinded down constantly (just no +EV spots with pots constantly opened in front of me and crap hands UTG). Theres some history between SB and BB. They've butted heads over some smallish pots for really no net effect on their stacks in the last 10 hands or so. UTG has been fairly quite until now, and Button hasnt played a hand in ages:
No Limit Holdem Tournament
$20 $2 Sit & Go
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG (1530)
Hero (810)
BTN (4415)
SB (4450)
BB (2295)
Blinds: 100/200
Pre-flop: (300, 5 players) Hero is CO  
UTG goes all-in 1530, Hero folds, 1 fold, SB calls 1430, BB calls 1330
Flop:    (4590, 3 players)
SB bets 800, BB calls 765
Turn:  (6168, 3 players)
River:  (6168, 3 players)
Final Pot: 6120
SB shows:  
BB shows:  
UTG shows:  
SB wins 6155 ( won 3825 )
BB lost -2295
UTG lost -1530
So I run the numbers through sngwiz, I give myself a 20% calling range (lots of shortstacks start getting anxious by now and will call wide to gambool), button I left at default 16%, SB I make 20 because I think he'll gambool a bit and BB I upped to 20% because likewise he's playing a lot of hands recently.
UTGs range should be: 77+,AJo+,ATs+. A push here is almost -1% EV which is pretty huge. An interesting spot that newbies to ICM need to learn. Lowish aces do really badly from EP. Compared to calling ranges, if they're called they're almost always a big dog. Especially with hero having only 4bbs and the table being fairly active/loose, this should be an easy fold.
But UTG pushes, so move onto hero. UTG should be openning fairly tightly here, so J2o is crushed. I dont have a hand worth gambling with and would hope for one of the other guys to call him and hopefully knock him out and slip into 4th and hope to get lucky. My range here if UTG is pushing 14% (realistic range) is 88+, AQo+,AJs+. Easy fold, so I do.
Button has no need to gambool, so his range is even tighter (blinds are a smaller percentage of his stack), sngwiz gives him a range of 3.5% - TT+, AK. I'm probably a bit surprised here, I'd have thought his range would be wider. Maybe its the risk of having 2 people still to act, even if we put them on tight calling ranges. Anyway, he's smart and folds.
SB only has one to act behind him, so his range is wider. If we give BB a calling range of 7%, then SBs range for pushing over is 88+,AQ+, so he's right to play this hand, however he really should be shoving here. 99 is just not strong enough to want to see the flop 3-way, so he wants to maximise his FE and get it HU. If BB pushed over he cant really fold, and surely he cant plan to fold many flops if it flops overs. Calling here is just bad, however its probably the least bad of all the bad play.
BB is where things really get crazy. Even if we call SB a retard who calls with the entire range he wants to play (say 20% to be generous), A5 is so completely dominated by a push and a call its just ridiculous. You've got to assume at least one of UTG or SB has a better ace. Even most PPs that are possible to be in this hand are destroying A5. Sngwiz gives a generous range of JJ+, however if we give SB a calling range of 10% then it goes to QQ+. Personally with hero on 4bbs and a chance of UTG going out and being on the bubble I'd even fold q's here and only get in with KK+.
Even the flop BB could have folded after missing completely and at least had a similar sized stack, although if hes dumb enough to play A5 PF you cant expect him to fold with those odds postflop (or even be aware of what the term odds means...).
As it was, they've gone from having a weak tight shorty (fair read the way I'd been playing) with only 4bbs, and all being fairly comfortable, to knocking two players out and letting him into the money. The only one who should have played a hand there was SB and he played it badly. If they'd known ICM they could have avoided this disastrous hand and at least got 4 handed in nice condition.
Out of interest, if UTG had folded, I would have also. J2o just isnt good enough with 3 players still to act, even with only 4bbs. My range from sngwiz is about 30%: which for jacks i is JT+, J9s+.
|
Reply With Quote
