Bet into trouble, bet out on river: 25nl

[Robb]

Villain is 66/3/1 over 100 hands. Have note "Small bet rvr = wk made hand." Blinds are tight, and I've stolen them several times this session.

$0.1/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($45.16)
CO ($118.25)
Hero ($47.44)
SB ($56.59)
BB ($10.00)

Pre-flop: ($0.35, 5 players) Hero is BTN
UTG calls $0.25, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.35, 2 players)
UTG bets $0.5, Hero raises to $3, UTG calls $2.5

Turn: ($8.35, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $5, UTG calls $5

River: ($18.35, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $7.17


Only way to win is betting river, but is it the correct play?

[Fnord]

This hand is pure spew.

He's a total station and you're isolating him with a weak hand. I would toss out the small stuff against him unless he's a flop folder. However, any two cards Ten and higher are gold. If he's really terrible I might play around with just calling a wide range of crap because your opponents just plain suck.

On the flop you're probably about even money against his range yet persist in throwing money into the pot.

The river bet is pure WTF?!?!?! You probably need to bet bigger to get him to laydown any showdown value at this point. Half pot ain't gonna do it.

VALUE TOWN. Get some ether, a rag and a van then take him there.

[pankfish]

If you are going to raise the flop make it smaller, like $2 is fine. basically you are throwing money away on the turn. All you have is a bluff catcher that can call a reasonable bet if no heart comes on the river because all you beat is a flush draw.

There is really no point in turning this hand into a bluff. On the river I don't see any reason for him to fold after calling you on the turn and you are still beating a flush draw. If you are posting this because he folded, then he folded a missed flush/straight.

[Fnord]

If you want to blow him off of something, $8 on the turn and $20+ on the river.

[Deanglow]

Good luck at getting him to fold J10. The Q is a really bad card to bluff because a lot of his range picked up straight draws. You're river bet is terribly sized but just don't bluff here. I see Spew everywhere.

[Robb]

Aight, thanks guys. Two thoughts.

1. I don't get to play against 66/3 stations all that often
2. His small flop bet indicated real weakness, imo

Seriously, these prostitute loose passive stations usually lose all their money so fast I don't have much experience playing them. Fnord, good point about the broadway hands for value towning him.

BTW, pankfish, he did fold. But I didn't like my bets on this one so I posted it, sort of like for penance.

[mcatdog]

He didn't get there. You had the best hand all along.

Good luck at getting him to fold J10. The Q is a really bad card to bluff because a lot of his range picked up straight draws.

QJT6 isn't a straight draw. Only straight draws he can have are KThh, T9hh, T8hh and 98hh which isn't "a lot"

[Deanglow]

He didn't get there. You had the best hand all along.

Good luck at getting him to fold J10. The Q is a really bad card to bluff because a lot of his range picked up straight draws.

QJT6 isn't a straight draw. Only straight draws he can have are KThh, T9hh, T8hh and 98hh which isn't "a lot"

Man I fucked up on that one. 6s look like 9s imo. Yeah and don't bluff calling stations.

[Robb]

Yeah and don't bluff calling stations.

Seriously? When they're 66/3 calling stations? Here's my thoughts, and I may be out of my mind, I admit. But I don't see how to avoid "bluffing" at this guy when his range is so wide. I have over 100 hands, and he's played 2/3's of them. That's ridiculous loose - he'll play any two, virtually. Even weak hands like mine are likely to be ahead of his range.

I guess my river bet would normally turn this weak hand into a bluff, but it is really a bluff here, against this villain?

[Fnord]

Yeah and don't bluff calling stations.

Don't bluff calling stations, but you can bluff loose players. Particularly on the river for stacks.

[IowaSkinsFan]

The biggest mistake in this hand is raising preflop. When you're playing a big station you want to isolate with hands with high pair value, as their value is so huge. Why build a pot with a hand that is losing to your opponents range when he's calling you all the way down anyways.

If you bluff a calling station your simply handing him money. It sounds obvious but the leak in a calling stations strategy is calling too much. When you bluff you are simply making his calling too much a better move.

[Ash256]

66/3/1

DON'T BRUFF CALLING STATIONS



Your flop bet was reasonable and you can expect to win a reasonable amount when they're flipped, esp. if he minbet bluffs a missed draw on riv.

Trying to make him fold pretty much anything is spew though.

[Robb]

The biggest mistake in this hand is raising preflop.

Definitely - never would argue that point.

If you bluff a calling station your simply handing him money. It sounds obvious but the leak in a calling stations strategy is calling too much. When you bluff you are simply making his calling too much a better move.

True, but I want to make this point, and apparently haven't, yet.

A HUGE range of hands would be value bets against this 66/3 villain that would be bad bluffs against more typical stations: 36/5/1, for example. The extra 30% of hands he's playing that are WORSE than a 36/5 station's range are pathetically bad hands, and he's a station to boot. I guess I'm just trying to find the optimal opening range and quality of hand needed on flop/turn/river to be value betting here. Top pair is probably always a value bet against this guy's range, though checking behind on the turn or river might be optimal with weaker hands that still have showdown value.

I agree I needed fold preflop here. But this guy isn't going to last long enough to get a titanium-plated read. So I'm trying to think through just to how play against someone like this while he's still get enough poker money to donate.

Thanks fnord, ISF, dean and the rest of y'all - you've really helped me get on track with what to consider in these situations.

[cjs55]

Why build a pot with a hand that is losing to your opponents range when he's calling you all the way down anyways.

Against really bad stations, why not play almost anything against them? Even if you are playing hands that are only behind their range preflop, you make up for that postflop against their easily exploited strategy. Small pots when you are behind, big pots when you are ahead = Win. On the otherhand, you probably don't want to play broadway/low card and get out kicked (ace-rag has to be one of the worst hands to play against a station), but 2 low cards are safe enough that you won't get into any trouble if you just pair up, and you (way more often than you should) win a big pot with a straight or two pair.

[Fnord]

66/3/1

DON'T BRUFF CALLING STATIONS

PRE-FLOP NUMBERS DO NOT A CALLING STATION MAKE.

I'm fucking serious because this is the number #1 piece of bullshit play/advice I see from weak little tagg wanna-bes in soft games.

Loose players play weak hands that often can not stand a lot of pressure, particulaly when you reach the all-in point (don't confuse this with your concept of commitment, it probably doesn't apply) or they run out of cards they might suck-out with. Some players like that you can fire bullets at all day for insta-profit until they catch on. Then it's just a matter of timing of if you have a better hand when he choses to call you all the way. However, some guys will make absurd calls for big money and against them you need to show them a hand. Stop being such a fucking HUDbot nit and figure out which breed of fish you're skinning tonight.

Henry "Bluffing loose players bought my matching HD-TVs" Fnord

[Fnord]

Against really bad stations, why not play almost anything against them?

You're assuming he's a post-flop calling station for big money. Also, weak unpaired pre-flop hands tend to make weak post-flop hands that are easily sucked out on. Finally, you will modify his behavior and risk turning yourself into the table action if you try to isolate him with too wide of a range.

[mcatdog]

Some of you guys should play live poker for few days and really pay attention to how people play on the turn and the river. There are plenty of players who love to call any pre-flop and flop bet with anything but on the turn and the river they fold like chumps because you just bet TWO HUNDRED DOLLARS!!!11111. These players are actually even easier to exploit than calling stations.

Fnord good posts from you in this thread

[mcatdog]

Loose players play weak hands that often can not stand a lot of pressure, particulaly when you reach the all-in point (don't confuse this with your concept of commitment, it probably doesn't apply)

To elaborate on this a little bit more, I played a live donkament a month ago vs. a guy who kept putting in half his stack and then folding for the rest, over and over again. Once, he had 7K chips in the SB at 500/1K blinds, the button shoved for 5K, guy flatted, BB who covered him went all-in and the SB folded for his last 2K.

It's absurd how much value you're leaving on the table if you don't know how to play against players like this. Having the stones to follow through on a bluff (even when it seems hopeless) is often key.

[shortspacepoker]

Eh, i just got into 25nl, but even at 10nl this line really makes no sense, and like what fnord said, this is spew! If you are going to take the pot, bet much more, otherwise dont bet at all.

Its seems like you didnt think you had the best hand throughout, even if hes on a draw he might've spiked a pair or something that'll let him call a v-bet.

And yeah, wth is raising pf to 1$ with 76os on the button against call stations? Ive never seen profit in blind stealing or raising with marginal hands (except maybe 98suited+).

Thats just me though, i try to avoid these situations as much as possible!

[Fnord]

Ive never seen profit in blind stealing or raising with marginal hands (except maybe 98suited+).

What's marginal? You should be a button bully because it's strong, profitable NLHE.

[Robb]

And yeah, wth is raising pf to 1$ with 76os on the button against call stations? Ive never seen profit in blind stealing or raising with marginal hands (except maybe 98suited+).

Well, I didn't play it great, no doubt. But what if the flop comes 54x? I have a hand that's way ahead of his and get to name my price for bets (since he's a station). And if he "wakes up" and bets, I can easily fold knowing I'm beaten. It's the 3 calls that suck, and make the river hard to play.

I raise on the button with nearly everything I play OTB, 'cuz I get to the rep the TPTK when I have air. I raise on the button to get villains 3betting light preflop. I raise on the button to steal the blinds uncontested more than half the time. I raise on the button with WORSE hands than 76o given the right circumstances, 'cuz I can take down orphan pots when I'm last to act.

[mcatdog]

Well, I didn't play it great, no doubt. But what if the flop comes 54x?

If that's the flop, you're likely to win a big pot that won't make up for all the big pots you lose when the flop doesn't come 54x.

[Robb]

Well, I didn't play it great, no doubt. But what if the flop comes 54x?

If that's the flop, you're likely to win a big pot that won't make up for all the big pots you lose when the flop doesn't come 54x.

The biggest mistake in this hand is raising preflop.

Definitely - never would argue that point.

Interesting thread. I know this hand was the wrong one to play this way. But the hand I played isn't my point. It's this villain. He's very attackable. And I'm trying to think of all the great ways I can attack villains like. And several of you have pointed out some good places to start my thinking. Thanks.

[Fnord]

Often the winning hand in Hold'em is hitting the board with one of your hole cards. Aiming for much more is hoping for a miracle. Looking for miracles is how fish play poker.

You figure to be showing down a lot of hands to loose players (since you'll be checking weakish showdownable stuff at the end or get some silly calls.) So you want to tend to play hands that can make the best hand hitting the board once and hit hard enough that you can confidently extract value after you hit.

AJ, AT, KQ, KJ, QJ, KT, etc. all go way up in value

[Robb]

Often the winning hand in Hold'em is hitting the board with one of your hole cards. Aiming for much more is hoping for a miracle. Looking for miracles is how fish play poker.

You figure to be showing down a lot of hands to loose players (since you'll be checking weakish showdownable stuff at the end or get some silly calls.) So you want to tend to play hands that can make the best hand hitting the board once and hit hard enough that you can confidently extract value after you hit.

AJ, AT, KQ, KJ, QJ, KT, etc. all go way up in value

fnord is DA MAN.

LoL. I doubted this, so I got out the stove and went to work. It is amazing how hands like T9s and T9 drop off like 5% in equity against his 66% range compared to JTs and JT. I'm currently amassing some info for a chart on playing against super loose villains, to estimate what kinds of hands to attack with.

BTW, 76o has only 32% equity against his 66% range. I will post again later tonight when I've done my homework. But the "any two cards T and higher" early in this thread from fnord was spot on.

vnh fnord

[bjsaust]

Fnord posts goot! People pay way too much attention to preflop stats and try to make arguments for postflop play based on them. Unless you've seen him be a calling station postflop then your strategy is completely different versus a calling station and a weak-tight postflop player.

[Fnord]

Some of this stuff is pretty much adapted from 6-max LHE theory....

A big reason that KTs > 98s is because you will hit a bigger pair, be more confident when you have the best hand and get more value out of it. Hold'em is a game of pairs, Deep Big Bet Hold'em mitigates this a bit with big pot vs small pot play, but it's still a pretty core truth.

[Robb]

Some of this stuff is pretty much adapted from 6-max LHE theory....

A big reason that KTs > 98s is because you will hit a bigger pair, be more confident when you have the best hand and get more value out of it. Hold'em is a game of pairs, Deep Big Bet Hold'em mitigates this a bit with big pot vs small pot play, but it's still a pretty core truth.

Yeah, I'm starting to get it. I played around with PokerStove for an hour, and I've worked on a better attacking range for super-loose passive players.

I'm seeing how we need two things from a hand:
1. To get ahead on the flop
2. To be able to KNOW we're ahead

76o may get us #1 but will only rarely get us #2.

[Ash256]

Thanks Fnord.

[Robb]

Here is some of the work I did on PokerStove, essentially confirming what fnord said: any two T or better against loose villains keeps us at coin flipping against his range. They're not the only cards we can play, but they're the hands we're think about value town on, imo.



There's a lot of info there - took about an hour with the Stove. Hopefully someone will find it interesting.

Again, thanks to the experienced players who weighed in here - I'm having fun playing at 25nl 'cuz it isn't so much 2 street bingo. You occasionally get to play the turn and river, too. Of course, I suck at turn/river play, but I am getting better.

[minSim]

Nice work Robb, definately appreciated.

Also Fnord, how can we get you to post more about all you know.

If wish more threads like this one could end with such fundamental points.

[nutsinho]

preflop is too loose, flop and turn are thin value, river is wtf. you bet less than 40% of the pot!

[shortspacepoker]

interesting post, i usually avoid raising this type of hand and having to value bet with mid pair or bluff on more than one street, im simply not good enough =/

And yeah Fnord knows what hes talking about, i hope to apply your advice in this thread to improve on my game :O