To me the question is not if he's less likely to call a push (I assume he is, even though he's likely to be very suspicious - hell, sometimes he'll just have overs and he's obviously not calling with that). Rather, it's which move plays out to make the most in the long run. That's where you have to start making guesses about how often he calls a push and how often he calls or raises a smaller CR; and also how often he stacks off on later streets, if we make a smaller raise on the flop and he just calls it. It's a complicated equation. You can go Sklansky on it and start assigning numbers pulled out of the ether (and really, there's no other way to come to a conclusion). I'll just say that my gut instinct is that both are similarly profitable, and he calls the push enough (and folds to a smaller raise enough) that it may be a wash. If your table image is super aggro, I'd lean toward pushing; if your table image is more standard, I'd lean toward a regular raise.