50NL - Button v Cutoff in 3bet pot

[Keilah]

CO was 12.5/8/3.5 and 26% to steal.

After he raises me, I'm not happy, but what to do? I did the pokerstove and if he ONLY raises with sets, QQ+, and overs+FD, i'm 19% to win (I need 28.6% to breakeven), so it's a fold.
But if I add just one hand I'm ahead of (eg TT ) to his range, then I become 32.8% to win and it's a clear call. Any more than that and it's a trivial call.

He's tight so I have to assume his bluffing probability is low. So what to do? Also, any thoughts on previous play is appreciated.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($29.25)
SB ($99.35)
BB ($56.10)
UTG ($36.40)
UTG+1 ($74.20)
MP1 ($22.85)
MP2 ($8.60)
CO ($50.25)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, A.
4 folds, CO raises to $2, Hero raises to $6, 2 folds, CO calls $4.

Flop: ($12.75) 2, J, 9 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $8, CO raises to $23.25, Hero ???

[wufwugy]

you cant count immediate odds alone since you dont know where you're at and you cant fold later if you call here. so you're getting a bit worse odds than you think. easy fold, this is a nut peddler. when he has worse he's still 40% equity.

pf is fine i guess, but its a bluff. its fine as a bluff since we have pos and AJ blockers, but when we hit just one pair and get action we're screwed. do pf very sparingly if at all. i wouldn't do it at all as a default vs this guy.

[pokerfan]

when you put half of your stack in the pot and hit TPTK, you know you've got to go all the way to a showdown This is a great SPR for your hand and you really hope he has AKs, AQs or any other worse hands.

[wufwugy]

half his stack isn't in here, and felting is way bad. hope to be 60% equity instead of <20%?

[Keilah]

you cant count immediate odds alone since you dont know where you're at and you cant fold later if you call here. so you're getting a bit worse odds than you think. easy fold, this is a nut peddler. when he has worse he's still 40% equity.

Can you explain what you mean? His raise puts me all-in, which means i'm getting exactly the odds I think.

Also I got my numbers by running pokerstove so I'm pretty sure they're correct.

What i'm really wondering is, does he raise with worse hands often enough to make a call worthwhile? I just did the math and he needs to have a worse hand approx 12% of the time for a call to be correct. I think
that's fairly close as a) I've got a high cbet percentage and he checked to me, and b) it's a J high flop and he may feel that's usually safe. Still, he IS a tighty.

Also, if he's 26% to steal, and he's on CO, I assume he's opening the top 17-22% of his hands here and AJo is way ahead of that range. Even with his tight stats, is this pf reraise really a pure bluff? (Actually this is something I've been thinking about... I'm far ahead of his open range, but behid his 3bet call range, so is it incorrect to 3bet? Is this what you're saying?)

[daven]

foldpre. rebuy

[kingnat]

when you put half of your stack in the pot and hit TPTK, you know you've got to go all the way to a showdown This is a great SPR for your hand and you really hope he has AKs, AQs or any other worse hands.

i agree.

[Da GOAT]

stack off given stack size ez, why yoiu got only 60bb?

[Keilah]

I read fnord's post on halfstacking and thought I'd give it a try. Iss pretty goot.

I don't see how you can't stack off here. Your commited since he'll show up with bluffs/draws enough to give you enough equity. Easy call since your so short. If you were 100BB it'd be completely different. Pre-flop is fine IMO. He's stealing 26%(low I know but still high enough) and we're thinking about folding AJ on BTN? Thats horrible IMO. 3bet and fold to shoves. As played is fine.

[d0zer]

stack off given stack size ez, why yoiu got only 60bb?

yes, this.

[wufwugy]

my advice defaults 100bb stacks unless told otherwise.

[kmind]

don't 3bet pre if you think he's stealing here. As played ship it.

[badgers]

don't 3bet pre if you think he's stealing here. As played ship it.

Yeah exactly I much prefer a call pre.

[MuddyWicket]

hmm. confused. I don't 3bet enough and is almost the kind of situation where I think I should be. Can someone clarify some these mixed ideas I am trying to balance.

1. If he is stealing 26% what range is he stealing with? I have been thinking his range has to be wider than the steal %. Is this wrong? is it the same? I'm beginning to think it has to be the same and is a stupid question.

2. if we are ahead of 50% of his range 3betting is fine, I thought, so we want to get more money in when we have the best of it and take initiative on the cheaper streets.

3. Is the argument for calling his to get value out of his continuation bluffs? (ie his cbet). We only hit it 1/3 times so I am not sure how this is optimal because we let him win with worse cards 2/3 of the time when we check/fold the flop.

4 3bet calling range? maybe I need to think about this more because I default to folding less than AK and set hunt with pairs if I think I have close to reasonable odds. His calling range has to be wider given all ranges so far are wide.

[kmind]

hmm. confused. I don't 3bet enough and is almost the kind of situation where I think I should be. Can someone clarify some these mixed ideas I am trying to balance.

1. If he is stealing 26% what range is he stealing with? I have been thinking his range has to be wider than the steal %. Is this wrong? is it the same? I'm beginning to think it has to be the same and is a stupid question.

2. if we are ahead of 50% of his range 3betting is fine, I thought, so we want to get more money in when we have the best of it and take initiative on the cheaper streets.

3. Is the argument for calling his to get value out of his continuation bluffs? (ie his cbet). We only hit it 1/3 times so I am not sure how this is optimal because we let him win with worse cards 2/3 of the time when we check/fold the flop.

4 3bet calling range? maybe I need to think about this more because I default to folding less than AK and set hunt with pairs if I think I have close to reasonable odds. His calling range has to be wider given all ranges so far are wide.

1. His stealing% def. includes less than stellar hands compared to his regular vpip so AJ can fare ok against that range. You can kind of get an idea about his range through pokerstove or experience, etc.

3. We only hit 1/3 times but that shouldn't mean we only win 1/3 times.

2-4. You have to think how your equity changes against his stealing range and his 3bet calling range. We don't want to play a hand that can be easily dominated, do we?

[MuddyWicket]

1. I think i'm putting his range to 20% to be conservative.

3. We miss he bets we check/fold. I would argue the hands we take away are balanced by those we still lose when we hit. I think i have a weakness here, and maybe fold too easy post flop in this scenario.

2.4. I think I am actually understanding this one. we sort of have value as it is and might be better choosing a worse hand to three bet with as this one has value without being 'clever', especially if we just want a cbet to take it down and/or then shut down(bluffing basically). AJ we can play a medium pot for value, with less variance. 3betting has the worst reverse implied odds of our options if we hit our AJ and end up at the river.

I read some stuff 'somewhere' about 3betting in a similar position to this with QJ which made some sense. Playing AJ oop in a raised pot as the caller is not something I am good at imo.

I keep having to reread your last sentence to make sure it sticks.

Thx Kmind.