200NL - AQo facing turn shove with TPTK

[silu73]

Villain in this hand is 47/16/4 over 170 hands. Despite his goofiness we haven't been involved in any memorable hands so far. I have been playing quite aggressive and have lost a couple of stacks due to suck outs on this table.

Poker Room skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
3 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Button: $381.05
Hero: $218.10
BB: $286.65

Pre-flop: (3 players) Hero is SB with A Q
Button raises to $4, Hero raises to $16, BB folds, Button calls.

Flop: 8 9 6 ($34, 2 players)
Hero bets $26, Button calls.

Turn: Q ($86, 2 players)
Hero bets $45, Button raises all-in $338.05, [color=#cc0000]Hero?

[Galapogos]

Have you seen him get carried away like this post-flop yet? I really don't like c-betting this flop either.

[DJJunkPauds]

Fold.

[Ash256]

I get the feeling that if he was gonna semibluff he'd have done it on the flop.

[dalecooper]

Fold.

As played through the turn, hero is getting 2:1 to call against a donk. I don't think he can fold. (The pot is 129 before villain pushes, and hero only has 128 left.) With any kind of read, definitely against a tighter opponent, you could let this go; against this guy I think you call and take your chances.

Incidentally, I don't like c-betting that flop too much either. It is obviously a lot better for his range than your hand. And if he calls, the pot is already escalating beyond where you really want it. This hand is a lot clearer if the first action happens on the turn after the queen lands, and the pot (and your bet) are smaller.

[DJJunkPauds]

I don't think 2:1 is enough. I think we're between 6:1 and 5:1 against legitimate hands, so he needs to be bluffing a hell of a lot for this to break even, imho. Until you know that someone is capable of some outlandish shit in the face of what looks like aces I think we need to fold.

On the other hand I don't know shit, and I've certainly (edit:NEVER) played at those stakes.

[dalecooper]

I don't think 2:1 is enough. I think we're between 6:1 and 5:1 against legitimate hands, so he needs to be bluffing a hell of a lot for this to break even, imho.

Villain has the stats to be capable of bluffing a lot, or over-valuing hands that aren't that good like KQ. He's also probably capable of semi-bluffing a pair that turned into a pair plus a flush draw, or a straight/flush combo draw, or a three-way draw (e.g. 7s 8s). But also, he's capable of doing this with hands like two pair, which we still have some equity against, since we have 8 outs against those hands. Basically I think this is a lot closer than it looks given how the guy probably plays. A better opponent, this becomes a snap-fold.

[EzDuzIt]

I don't think 2:1 is enough. I think we're between 6:1 and 5:1 against legitimate hands, so he needs to be bluffing a hell of a lot for this to break even, imho. Until you know that someone is capable of some outlandish shit in the face of what looks like aces I think we need to fold.

On the other hand I don't know shit, and I've certainly played at those stakes.

we arent calling because we think we are behind and have odds to suckout. we would be calling because we think we are better than 33% or w/e it is vs his range.



for cbetting or not how about using a fold/call/raise cbet stat?

also i think i would rather c/r turn vs someone this aggro.

[DJJunkPauds]

we arent calling because we think we are behind and have odds to suckout. we would be calling because we think we are better than 33% or w/e it is vs his range.

Sure, I just think that so much of what he has is crushing us. I guess he can have AQ, maybe KQ. Whilst it's unlikely that he would have called a cbet in a 3bet pot with those hands it's not completely impossible. Here's how I think we do if I'm being really optimistic about his range:

Board: 8h 9c 6s Qs
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 91.558% 89.18% 02.38% 1648 44.00 { QQ, 99-88, 66, AcQc, AhQh, KhQh, KsTs, Q9s, JTs, T7s, 98s, 9s7s, 75s, JTo }
Hand 1: 08.442% 06.06% 02.38% 112 44.00 { AsQd }

I'm being way optimistic with semi-bluffs/TPGKs he might have. He needs to be doing this with air an awful lot.

I'm new to this range equity/hand reading stuff, so let me know if I've made a big mistake anywhere.

[EzDuzIt]

that range is like 9% more equity than we need to call.

[dalecooper]

that range is like 9% more equity than we need to call.

This is an important point. His range can actually be fairly tight and if it includes just a few bluffs/semibluffs/overvalued hands, you still may be getting the right odds to call. We're shooting for 33% here. You can chop several of the less likely hands out of there and still have the right odds for the call.

Also, I think you missed several that are possible given the board and action: 77, TT, JJ come to mind.

[DJJunkPauds]

I might be hijacking OP's post somewhat here, but I'd really like to understand this.

Against non-stone bluffs we're ~ 11:1, and we need to be ~ 11:4 to call right? So that means that for every 1 time he has a hand in the above range, he needs to be drawing dead 3 times for the call to turn a profit. I'm not even sure the above range is less than a 1/4 of what he called the 3bet with. (I know these numbers would change if we added in the UP+gutter hands, and some other stuff, and I take dale's point on that, but I'm keeping my range to find out if I understand the underlying principle).

No? Not that simple? What am I missing?

[dalecooper]

Where did you come up with 11:1?

I think you may be making this a little too complicated, and you may be making some leaps that I disagree with about this particular villain. He min-raised and called a 3-bet preflop - but he sees 47% of flops. He's an undeniable fish. On top of that this is button vs. blind, so if he has any positional awareness (and self-awareness of his own table image) whatsoever, there's more incentive for him to call. His range is huge up to that point. I really think going to the flop, he's not very far north of any two cards. Suited connectors, unsuited connectors, suited and unsuited gappers, all pocket pairs (prob. not AA-KK), any two high cards, maybe some high card + dangler hands, Ax. After that, given his general play style and high aggression level, you can't take it on faith that he will only play back at you with hands that have you beat. I wouldn't be exactly eager to get my money in, but with the way the hand was played and the pot size on the turn, I'm not getting away from it by that point. But I do expect to lose my share (2/3 of the time, or hopefully, a little less).

So put together a few ranges, run 'em through Pokerstove, and it will tell you what kind of equity you have. I don't have stove installed any more but I used to do this kind of exercise all the time just to get a feel for it. My feeling here is that there's a fair amount of bullshit in his range, and that gives us the equity we need to make a 2:1 call.

But if the previous betting had gone differently and the money behind was greater relative to the pot, I'd fold it.

(Say OP - when are you going to give us the outcome?)

[DJJunkPauds]

I meant 10:1, or 9ish%

[Pelion]

I meant 10:1, or 9ish%

what?

[DJJunkPauds]

What do you mean "what?"?