New to the forum, trying to grasp ICM...

[ClemsonPoker]

and had a hand fairly recently that I wanted to ask about.

Live tourney, but only 2 tables, so I'm playing like a two table SNG.

1500 starting, 25/25 blinds (first level, obviously). I have only put in the blinds and folded so have 1450.

Get 44 UTG+2, I limp, UTG+3 limps, folds to CO, he raises to 275.

(CO has 1250)

This isn't my question, but in replaying the hand, yes, I should probably have laid it down here, however he had been raising to 75 (4 times in 1.5 orbits) and getting callers, I put him on TT, JJ, or A7+ with an outside chance at a steal. I notice the player to my left is going to call (good read on this) and I make the call (he does as expected).

Flop is 8d 9h 8s

I check, UTG+3 Checks, CO bets 500.

Now, this is where I like live play, CO goes into full on "I'M BLUFFING", several different usual tells here. He freezes, stares me down, etc.

I now am convinced he missed this flop with A10+.

Assuming my read is correct, what is the correct play here?

[yourfather]

Fold PF after the raise, your not gettign odds to look for set. I fold flop as well, reads are overrated IMO.

Im not good at running ICM calcs without actually using an online ICM calc but..

I know you think his range is A10+ but even with your read I think that you can't exclude 55+ from his range and that makes this very -EV. Pick a better spot.

Edit: I didn't really say much about ICM but I don't think you need to worry about it too much until push/fold bubble time for the most part.

[taipan168]

Yeah, this isn't really a spot where ICM makes the difference between a correct and incorrect decision. Calculating chip EV will be pretty close to the mark here.

Preflop: As yourfather said, you don't have odds to play for a set. You hit a set 1 time in 8.5, so in order to have correct implied odds you need to be able to win AT A MINIMUM 7.5x the chips you need to call assuming opp stacks off every time you hit your set. Since this doesn't happen (or sometimes you get stacked when you do hit your set) I look to be able to win something like 15x the chips I need to call. In this case you can win 1500 chips and you need to call 250, so you don't even have the bare minimum implied odds - therefore I fold (as you realised).

Flop: I just fold and let it go. There is a good chance that opp has a real hand which he won't fold. Also, whilst there is a chance that opp is c-betting with air, considering the size of the pot when it gets back to you (1400), opp would be getting (1400+500+675)/675 = 3.8 to 1 pot odds to call your shove so he won't fold here even with missed overcards.

[ClemsonPoker]

Thanks guys, yes I realized later that I misplayed pre flop. I was, of course in the mindset that doubling up would let me skate a while as the blinds rose.

I see I have a lot to learn about ICM, I'm going to reread the FAQ thread's link now.

For those interested, the hand played out thus:

I trusted my read (something I've been working on live anyway) and raised to 1000. He instapushed (another weak play) coupling that with my earlier read, I was now even more sure and I called fairly quickly.

He had AK, so I was about 65% to win...unfortunately a K fell on the river.

I still feel I made a great read, if a poor mathematical play earlier in the hand.

[TLR]

If you have a good read you need to trust it, in this case you had to push it, to make the (incorrect as taipan pointed out) fold easier for him. This is ofcourse assuming the player behind you does not wake up, which means you need to have some sort of a read on him as well