AQs with royal flush draw on turn ($27)

[taipan168]

SB's stats were 20/5 at this point. What's your turn move?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP1 (t1755)
MP2 (t1385)
MP3 (t2190)
CO (t1430)
Button (t890)
SB (t1420)
Hero (t1500)
UTG (t1490)
UTG+1 (t1440)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, Q.
2 folds, MP1 calls t50, 1 fold, MP3 raises to t150, 2 folds, SB calls t125, Hero calls t100, MP1 calls t100.

Flop: (t600) 2, 2, K (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP3 checks.

Turn: (t600) J (4 players)
SB bets t300, Hero ????

[fjuanl]

I think SB has Kx here a large amount of the time. If they really play a 20/5 game, the only Kx's that SB could have are AK/KQ/KJ. AJ could also be in villians range. Also with a flop this dry, its definetly possible that the other 2 remaining players have made hands

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,980 games 0.005 secs 396,000 games/sec

Board: 2h 2c Ks Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.000% 70.00% 00.00% 1386 0.00 { AKs, AJs, KJs+, AKo, AJo, KTo+ }
Hand 1: 30.000% 30.00% 00.00% 594 0.00 { AsQs }

I think thats a pretty safe range unless SB is very aggro (imo even somewhat aggro players don't semibluff here). This is sick but I think...

Fold>Push>Call

[TLR]

You probably have 15 outs to win it, you need to call 300 into a 900 pot which gives you decent implied odds to play it, the problem is that there are 2 people left to act behind you, I think this is a crying fold at this stage of the Sng

[Fnord]

Pre-flop I'm taking it to the 3rd floor.

500, shove any frop.

Paired flop, I'd dump it if I called.

[Stackumz]

I'm calling the 300 bet and folding to any raise here. You have a lot of big outs and good implied odds so go for it.

[drmcboy]

re raise pre, call as played.

[taipan168]

What is the advantage of re-raising preflop? If we get shoved over, aren't we then priced in to call and very likely well behind opp's range? Isn't 3-bet/folding pre spewing chips?

[drmcboy]

you are going for the rest. It's OK to race sometimes.


The advantages:

winning the pot now

winning the pot on the flop when you miss

winning the pot on the flop when you hit

not trying to figure out if you should stack off 4 way with top pair OOP

not letting someone take the pot away from you with a much worse hand


playing it your way is just so difficult from start to finish. Make them make the hard decisions.

[GatorJH]

3betting preflop here is also somewhat of a squeeze play which could get a LOT of decent hands to fold. I agree that I think that is a better option than flat calling.