this is just awful right?

[CorbinDallas]

he's 16/11/2.3 over 126 hands.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($48.65)
SB ($42.95)
BB ($38.30)
UTG ($3)
MP ($25.35)
CO ($27.60)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, Q.
1 fold, MP raises to $1, 1 fold, Hero calls $1, 2 folds.

Flop: ($2.35) 7, A, 5 (2 players)
MP bets $2, Hero calls $2.

Turn: ($6.35) J (2 players)
MP bets $4, Hero calls $4.

River: ($14.35) K (2 players)
MP bets $8, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $14.35

i have to raise the flop right? so i didn't and the Jack showed up and at that point i decided to just try and get to showdown without fireworks. then the K shows up and he bets the $8. then i just growl at myself and fold... mummering sarcastically "well played".

i don't think he'd fire again on the turn with 88,99,TT,QQ,KK unless he thinks i have a flush draw... suited connectors... but he may be thinking if i had the A would raise the flop. he would fire AJ, AQ, AK, JJ, KQs on the turn. he has no reason to think i have an A based on my just calling. should i have raised the Turn? so the Kspades shows up and i just fold when he bets out... i don't think i can beat anything in his range when he bets that card.

[CorbinDallas]

he's 16/12/3 over just 43 hands. despite the tightish numbers he seemed kinda bad.

i'm missing lots of value here right? after he just calls the raise on the flop.... i'm not thinking he is slow playing a big over pair.

ya know how it is... you have a few bad sessions where nothing goes right and every card that falls that might beat you makes you gun shy. so i'm just calling the turn cuz of the possible flush. but in the end... he tried to make some weird bluff so just callin the turn got me some more value i guess. i thought about shoving over his raise on the river cuz it was so goofy.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP ($23.25)
Hero ($71.45)
SB ($25.45)
BB ($11.40)
UTG ($31.50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 2, 2.
1 fold, MP raises to $0.85, Hero calls $0.85, 2 folds.

Flop: ($2.05) T, 3, 2 (2 players)
MP bets $1, Hero raises to $3, MP calls $2.

Turn: ($8.05) 6 (2 players)
MP bets $2.25, Hero calls $2.25.

River: ($12.55) 7 (2 players)
MP bets $0.25, Hero raises to $4, MP raises to $9.75, Hero calls $5.50.

Final Pot: Hero wins $31.80

so was this played ok?

[will641]

1) i think you played it fine. i dont think there are many FD's in his range, or very many bruffs. and the only worse A he has is AJ, maybe AT, but i would suspect he would either c/c turn, or c/c river with AT.

2) raise the turn again, get it in. fwiw i also raise the flop a little bigger. maybe like 3.5-4.

[CorbinDallas]

1) ok good. i guess i just felt gross about not raising the flop... and then not getting to showdown. i suppose TT, JJ, QQ, and KK fold to a raise on the flop. so i could've taken it right there as opposed to letting it get to the river. but if he has AK, AJ, i might lose alot more.

2) i agree. its a set... fuck the 3 card flush.

[Silly String]

Hand #1, I wouldn't usually raise the flop unless you have some indication he will still call down with worse(i.e. moron). You are basically letting every hand you dominate off easy while keeping hands that beat you or have outs in the pot. You have position (& probably better post-flop skills) so use them and don't give your villain an easier decision.
As for the hand: I call flop there, hate the turn but call the bet anyway, then fold the river as I'm only beating a moron that bets AT 3 streets for value on terrible boards. I don't this villain's stats fit that description. Most 3 barrel bluff hands(straights) don't fit w/ his pre-flop range, and his river bet looks to be a value b/f or b/c.
You could try raising him AI repping the flush since your post flop play mimics one, but I think you're getting called too often there by 2pr or sets to be +EV.

[mixchange]

Hand 1

Raise flop to valuetown FD's and weaker aces. You want to take control in these spots, not let them take it. Fold to a re-raise. Worse hands will call a HUGE percentage of the time to the flop raise. Make it 7 and 2/3+ pot the turn if he checks.

As played you can fold the river, but mainly because of how you botched the hand. A call would not be terrible due to the pot odds you are getting.

[CorbinDallas]

Hand 1

Raise flop to valuetown FD's and weaker aces. You want to take control in these spots, not let them take it. Fold to a re-raise. Worse hands will call a HUGE percentage of the time to the flop raise. Make it 7 and 2/3+ pot the turn if he checks.

As played you can fold the river, but mainly because of how you botched the hand. A call would not be terrible due to the pot odds you are getting.

i agree against morons. this guy doens't seem like a moron.

[DJJunkPauds]

I think in hand 1 it's marginally better to raise than fold preflop, and calling is the worst option. Raise the flop to extract from his FD etc.

Hand 2 I'd raise the pot (so to $4), raise the turn as well, and I'd check behind on the river (which is the same as calling his min bet), but I'm somewhat of a pussy in these spots.

[Silly String]

I guess it comes down to your image. Does he think you would raise the flop with draws? or only a made hand?

[Galapogos]

Hand #1: Good.
Hand #2: Raise the turn and get it in.

I think in hand 1 it's marginally better to raise than fold preflop, and calling is the worst option. Raise the flop to extract from his FD etc.

I hate 3-betting here. I think that would be a classic example of 3-betting without knowing why except for the fact that you have a nice looking hand.


Also, Corbin, you should try developing reads on their post-flop play. After 126 hands you should have some idea about this guys post-flop game.

[DJJunkPauds]

I hate 3-betting here. I think that would be a classic example of 3-betting without knowing why except for the fact that you have a nice looking hand.

How about position, fold equity, and being ahead of his range as reasons to 3bet?

[mixchange]

Hand 1

Raise flop to valuetown FD's and weaker aces. You want to take control in these spots, not let them take it. Fold to a re-raise. Worse hands will call a HUGE percentage of the time to the flop raise. Make it 7 and 2/3+ pot the turn if he checks.

As played you can fold the river, but mainly because of how you botched the hand. A call would not be terrible due to the pot odds you are getting.

i agree against morons. this guy doens't seem like a moron.

it also depends on how you play your other hands. do you raise your flush draws too? if so, he has to call with Ax. Do you? Would he notice?


also, I don't like 3betting this guy OOP. His 3bet calling range is way ahead of AQ and we end up having to c/f some flops and spewing in others. We also get value from weaker aces from him. I think the EV is greater in just calling this guy oop.

against loose opponents i love 3betting because they fold a lot and call a lot with worse and fold many flops

[CorbinDallas]

interesting discussion on the AQ hand.

Hand #1: Good.
Hand #2: Raise the turn and get it in.

hand #2. i really didn't think this guy had a big pair when he just called the flop raise. i just had a feeling he had something like JT, QT, KT, AT or two over cards like AQ. i dunno he just didn't seem that strong to me even though his stats might indicate he is solid. so i was partly concerned about scaring him away on the turn... and also was a bit concerned of a possible flush (but that was mostly cuz of my successive sessions of everything go to hell).

in the end i saw KT and still wondered if he woulda stacked off on the turn. i think he'd have to be pretty bad to stack off on the turn... but he did make that goofy river bet.

[DJJunkPauds]

also, I don't like 3betting this guy OOP. His 3bet calling range is way ahead of AQ and we end up having to c/f some flops and spewing in others. We also get value from weaker aces from him. I think the EV is greater in just calling this guy oop.

We're on the button (I think you may have misread the hand), and I don't think his calling range is way ahead of us, but certainly a little ahead. Perhaps you're thinking he calls with TT+/AK? I think if we price it right he calls with 22-QQ (4-bets KK+ obv.), and depending on how he plays, suited connectors sometimes, then he fit/folds to our cbet (folds about 80%). Add in the preflop fold equity and I think this is way better than calling.

Edit: "he calls with 22-QQ AND AK".

[Galapogos]

also, I don't like 3betting this guy OOP. His 3bet calling range is way ahead of AQ and we end up having to c/f some flops and spewing in others. We also get value from weaker aces from him. I think the EV is greater in just calling this guy oop.

We're on the button (I think you may have misread the hand), and I don't think his calling range is way ahead of us, but certainly a little ahead. Perhaps you're thinking he calls with TT+/AK? I think if we price it right he calls with 22-QQ (4-bets KK+ obv.), and depending on how he plays, suited connectors sometimes, then he fit/folds to our cbet (folds about 80%). Add in the preflop fold equity and I think this is way better than calling.

You give excellent reasons why we should 3-bet bluff him often.

[DJJunkPauds]

Not quite sure what you mean by that Galapogos, but if you mean we should be doing this with trash/suited connectors/whatever often why not do it with AQ? If we don't mean to get to showdown, what difference does it make what our hand is?

I don't think we're bluffing if we do this anyway, though making him fold when we miss is probably essential to making this +ev. There are flop situations we can value bet. A32, he has TT-QQ, and looks us up, QJ9, he has TT, we might felt him with his 10 outs, and obviously the dream KJT when he has TT/JJ, we felt him. The rest of the time he folds a lot of the time.

Calling makes for harder decisions, and harder decisions are less ev.

Do you disagree, and if so why?

[mcatdog]

because calling allows him to make dominated pairs and win a big pot after the flop instead of just folding those hands preflop and us winning $1

[mcatdog]

Not quite sure what you mean by that Galapogos, but if you mean we should be doing this with trash/suited connectors/whatever often why not do it with AQ?

If we should be c-betting A high flops with trash then why not do it with KK?

[Galapogos]

Not quite sure what you mean by that Galapogos, but if you mean we should be doing this with trash/suited connectors/whatever often why not do it with AQ? If we don't mean to get to showdown, what difference does it make what our hand is?

I don't think we're bluffing if we do this anyway, though making him fold when we miss is probably essential to making this +ev. There are flop situations we can value bet. A32, he has TT-QQ, and looks us up, QJ9, he has TT, we might felt him with his 10 outs, and obviously the dream KJT when he has TT/JJ, we felt him. The rest of the time he folds a lot of the time.

Calling makes for harder decisions, and harder decisions are less ev.

Do you disagree, and if so why?

I'm just saying a lot of your reasons initially sounded like ones you'd give for 3-betting a garbage hand like 72o. You were throwing around fold equity and how easy it would make the hand to take it down preflop etc. AQ is too good of a hand to want fold equity with.

Plus, on an A high flop, I doubt he's looking us up beyond one street if he does even that. And how happy are you when you get action from this guy on an A high flop? Then the other scenarios you describe are few and far between. I could use the same kind of arguments for 72o. Like think about how often we stack his TT+ whn we hit a 77x or a 72x flop! Just saying it's rare things line themselves up that perfectly.

With this guy, more often than not, you're folding a hand you're dominating preflop, getting 4-bet against (which you'll have to fold), getting stacked by a better hand when you do hit post-flop, and wasting your position.

If you have created the image against a player capable of adjusting, then 3-betting for value can be good. Or if you're up against a guy that's calling 3-bets light. Or if he is a station post-flop, for a nit, that will pay off with TT-KK on an A high board. But all we know is he's a standard nit.

More often than not you're going to get hurt by his range that's calling your 3-bet if the hand even gets past preflop.

Yes if you call you're put to decisions. But they're not tough. This guy's a wimp. If he's firing 3 barrels and you haven't improved, easy decision. Making decisions isn't -ev unless you're making the wrong ones.

[DJJunkPauds]

You make good points Galapogos, I'd never really thought of Poker that way. The way I usually see it is the wider villain's range is, the less accurate my decisions are, and the less accurate they are, the less money I make, so do whatever (which nearly always means raising) to narrow down their range. What you're saying here is that we want to keep in the QJ/KQ/AJ hands, because they more than make up for the times when we get shown sets/AK, right?

mcatdog: Because if we have 72o on an A83r board, then we want him to fold damn near all of his range, where as if we hold KK on that flop, we might want to check and see a turn so that we can make a set against his TP, or induce him to call with weaker pairs. WA/WB spot, no?

[Galapogos]

You make good points Galapogos, I'd never really thought of Poker that way. The way I usually see it is the wider villain's range is, the less accurate my decisions are, and the less accurate they are, the less money I make, so do whatever (which nearly always means raising) to narrow down their range. What you're saying here is that we want to keep in the QJ/KQ/AJ hands, because they more than make up for the times when we get shown sets/AK, right?

Yeah exactly. Making sure you're still up against those hands post-flop is the key, because you will be able to value town him huge. I just think it sucks to waste your position with a hand that's a good hand, but not good enough to 3-bet against a guy like this. Look at the difference between AQ and AK on this super tight range.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

739,715,328 games 0.001 secs 739,715,328,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.460% 43.60% 15.86% 322525584 117305460.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 40.540% 24.68% 15.86% 182578824 117305460.00 { AKs, AKo }


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

821,905,920 games 0.005 secs 164,381,184,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.871% 69.75% 01.12% 573259212 9232410.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 29.129% 28.01% 01.12% 230181888 9232410.00 { AQs, AQo }



Yeah it's preflop equity, but it's just to illustrate the point that you're obviously going to not hit a flop (lots of the time he'll like a low flop) so you're screwed that way, or the most important one being if you do hit a flop you're screwed. I think people automatically 3-bet AQ too often because they overestimate it's worth since it seems so much like AK.

But yeah, like I said, 3-betting it could be optimal. But against this particular villain, I think it's definitely not.

[badgers]

hand 2 river raise sizing is awful

[CorbinDallas]

hand 2 river raise sizing is awful

why?

[will641]

hand 2 river raise sizing is awful

why?

i would just shove. i just treat those min bets like a check, and in that case its shove central.