SNG Wiz Says Push, But...

[chincheck]

It didn't feel right when I shoved. OTOH, maybe I'm puckering up at the bubble. Thoughts?

POKERSTARS GAME #17757150877: TOURNAMENT #90035218, $1.00+$0.20 HOLD'EM NO LIMIT - LEVEL X (400/800) - 2008/05/28 - 17:13:11 (ET)
Table '90035218 2' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: chincheck35 (6720 in chips)
Seat 4: turbopechan (7327 in chips)
Seat 6: Bene1221 (4773 in chips)
Seat 8: DontEverTrip (3914 in chips)
Seat 9: selinantis (4266 in chips)
chincheck35: posts the ante 50
turbopechan: posts the ante 50
Bene1221: posts the ante 50
DontEverTrip: posts the ante 50
selinantis: posts the ante 50
chincheck35: posts small blind 400
turbopechan: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to chincheck35 [Tc Kh]
Bene1221: folds
DontEverTrip: folds
selinantis: folds
chincheck35: raises 5870 to 6670 and is all-in
turbopechan: calls 5870
*** FLOP *** [Jd Ac Kd]
*** TURN *** [Jd Ac Kd] [3c]
*** RIVER *** [Jd Ac Kd 3c] [Th]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
chincheck35: shows [Tc Kh] (two pair, Kings and Tens)
turbopechan: shows [Jh As] (two pair, Aces and Jacks)
turbopechan collected 13590 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 13590 | Rake 0
Board [Jd Ac Kd 3c Th]
Seat 1: chincheck35 (small blind) showed [Tc Kh] and lost with two pair, Kings and Tens
Seat 4: turbopechan (big blind) showed [Jh As] and won (13590) with two pair, Aces and Jacks
Seat 6: Bene1221 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: DontEverTrip folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: selinantis (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

[taipan168]

This is an easy shove in my book with blinds so huge and nobody's stack particularly short. Don't be results oriented! Would you have posted this hand if you'd won it?

[chincheck]

This is an easy shove in my book with blinds so huge and nobody's stack particularly short. Don't be results oriented! Would you have posted this hand if you'd won it?

Probably not. And you're right, I'm results oriented, which is what I don't want. Thanks for the wake up call!

One more question: would you have called if you were the villain?

[bjsaust]

Super easy shove by you, super easy call by BB.

[CoccoBill]

Super easy shove by you, super easy call by BB.

Agreed with the first part, not with the 2nd. Easy shove against most opponents, he needs to be calling with 35%+ to make this a bad shove. It's an easy call for the BB against someone who knows proper push/fold, but a terrible call against someone who is pushing tight (22+,QJ+ for example).

[bjsaust]

With effective stacks under 10bbs for the entire table, folding AJ to a SB push against anyone would be a mistake.

[CoccoBill]

With effective stacks under 10bbs for the entire table, folding AJ to a SB push against anyone would be a mistake.

If SB shoves 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2s+,Q6o+,J7s+,J9o+,T8s+,98s, according to SNGPT calling with AJo is -0.5%.

If SB shoves 44+,A7s+,A9o+,KJs+, calling with AJo is -5.7%. That's right, not -0.5%, -5.7%.

In fact, SB needs to be shoving 60%+ to make this a +EV call on the BB.

[bluedevil907]

With effective stacks under 10bbs for the entire table, folding AJ to a SB push against anyone would be a mistake.

If SB shoves 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2s+,Q6o+,J7s+,J9o+,T8s+,98s, according to SNGPT calling with AJo is -0.5%.

If SB shoves 44+,A7s+,A9o+,KJs+, calling with AJo is -5.7%. That's right, not -0.5%, -5.7%.

In fact, SB needs to be shoving 60%+ to make this a +EV call on the BB.

My god, once I move out of the bottom SnGs I seriously need to pick up SNPT/WIZ. Stuff like this seems so counter-intuitive to me, but you can't argue with the math.

-EDIT-
Especially considering this is at the $1.2 level, there's no way more than 10% of players are going to be shoving 60%+ from SB.

[mcdonough22]

I dont understand what sort of bubble this is with these stack sizes. Nevertheless, I know what the ICM says, but I'm not shoving 8 BB into the big stack anymore in a $1. These guys call wayyyy too wide in my estimation and I'm constantly bubbling out before the tightass push/folding begins, where my biggest advantage is. You just have to outlast these guys by playing when you're forced to. This isn't one of those situations in my opinion. Maybe my selective memory only sees opp turning over Ax here, which I really dont want. The BB is NEVER as tight as you need him to be at low levels.

I'm playing $11s now and not running into this as much. Thoughts? Or am I imagining this as well?