I am badgers, king of nits...

[badgers]

Villain is Virus3232, a 10/9 abc nit... I have a note that I made while going through PT that he is very nitty from the first 3 positions. I feel really sure he's not doing this with AK and that's the only hand I beat. I'm pretty sure I've never got caught stepping out of line vs. him.

Too nitty? If you're calling I want a river plan and if you're shoving I want to know what hands you think he has that will call.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP1 ($64.50)
MP2 ($111.40)
Hero ($208.35)
Button ($92.90)
SB ($215.50)
BB ($100.25)
UTG ($105.85)
UTG+1 ($104.70)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 4, 4.
UTG raises to $4, 3 folds, Hero calls $4, 3 folds.

Flop: ($9.50) T, A, 4 (2 players)
UTG bets $4, Hero calls $4.

Turn: ($17.50) K (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $11, UTG raises to $27, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $39.50

[Alexos]

If hes that nitty why is he checking the turn with all the draws out there?

[Warpe]

raise flop pls.

[d0zer]

3 combos of KK left, 3 combos of AA left, 9 combos of AK. Normally I'd be inclined to felt this even vs a nit.

What makes you so sure he's not doing this with AK? Even nits get excited when they turn top 2pr.

A read on his typical flop bet sizing would be nice here though. The relatively weak flop bet + turn strength to me suggests KK scared of the ace OR weak bet trap with aces, but i'd be more inclined to assume the former.

[badgers]

If hes that nitty why is he checking the turn with all the draws out there?

Honestly I don't know... his line doesn't make much sense at all but then he's not a particularly good nit. I guess AdKd is quite possible...

raise flop pls.

No.. I used to raise flops like these all the time then I realised that i don't need to balance FDs when no-one's paying attention and raising the turn/ river is usually a more profitable line. I'm scared of giving a free card to one hand...

3 combos of KK left, 3 combos of AA left, 9 combos of AK. Normally I'd be inclined to felt this even vs a nit.

What makes you so sure he's not doing this with AK? Even nits get excited when they turn top 2pr.

A read on his typical flop bet sizing would be nice here though. The relatively weak flop bet + turn strength to me suggests KK scared of the ace OR weak bet trap with aces, but i'd be more inclined to assume the former.

Why are you not including TT in his range?

I don't belive that he would overplay AK in this way... at least discount it from his range... Also I didn't have any specific reads other than what I wrote earlier...

[d0zer]

Right...forgot about TT.

I've seen nits overplay AK like this before. Just cause they're a preflop NIT doesn't mean they're necessarily a postflop NIT, or intelligent enough to accurately assign postflop ranges. Some nits just get married to their hands after waiting so long for one.

Ok so with TT in the mix it's 9 ahead & 9 behind, & the pot is now $55. If we give AK an equal likelihood as TT/KK/AA, then it's a clear shove. If you're very confident that it's not AK, then I guess it's a fold, but if your only read is that he's a 10/9 nit who's tight from EP, I'm not so confident as you that he'd never play AK like this.

Though admittedly the flop bet is suspicious. I would generally expect a NIT to bet TPTK harder than less than 1/2 pot.

[BankItDrew]

KK is our main concern here. If I'm ever going to fold a set on the turn HU, this would be the time.

[badgers]

I'm not so confident as you that he'd never play AK like this.

Nor am I but if we discount it by 50% then it's a clear fold.

Agree with drew that it felt a lot like KK - that explains the weak flop bet anyway

[d0zer]

I'm not so confident as you that he'd never play AK like this.

Nor am I but if we discount it by 50% then it's a clear fold.

Agree with drew that it felt a lot like KK - that explains the weak flop bet anyway

Whenever I think about folding sets it makes me wanna quit poker, but I think you might have me convinced that this was a pretty good fold

[Ltrain]

If we are folding the set vs. this player, we should be folding preflop.

[BankItDrew]

If we are folding the set vs. this player, we should be folding preflop.

You're joking right? You do understand the difference between 1 out with one card to come vs. 2 outs with 3 cards on the flop, right?

[pokerfan]

i like flop minraise with the intention of calling his shove. If he had JJ-KK, he wouldnt put any dime in the pot from turn on. So it's probably the only street to extract more money for this nit. Also he might feel confused and felt with AK or AQ right on the flop, you never know.

[d0zer]

i like flop minraise with the intention of calling his shove. If he had JJ-KK, he wouldnt put any dime in the pot from turn on. So it's probably the only street to extract more money for this nit.

Why would he shove over with JJ-KK into a relatively small pot? That's a huge overshove. Also, I would expect a nit to fold to a raise of any size on the flop if he's holding JJ-KK. The only thing a flop raise does, is give him a tough decision with AK.

[Keilah]

I know this guy. Good fold IMO.

[pokerfan]

i dont think 10/9 would fold JJ-KK to a minraise on Ace high drawy flop after betting less than 1/2 pot($4) ? If you dont raise here, you'd never get any more money later on.Also he might feel confused and felt with AK or AQ right on the flop, you never know.

i like flop minraise with the intention of calling his shove. If he had JJ-KK, he wouldnt put any dime in the pot from turn on. So it's probably the only street to extract more money for this nit.

Why would he shove over with JJ-KK into a relatively small pot? That's a huge overshove. Also, I would expect a nit to fold to a raise of any size on the flop if he's holding JJ-KK. The only thing a flop raise does, is give him a tough decision with AK.

[daven]

i read what you wrote above, but still think you should be raising the flop. As played good fold.

[Ltrain]

If we are folding the set vs. this player, we should be folding preflop.

You're joking right? You do understand the difference between 1 out with one card to come vs. 2 outs with 3 cards on the flop, right?

Of course. However, I also understand we are considering folding a set, which is close to the best case scenario with our hand, against the threat of a higher set from this rock. 33% of flops will have an A or K if I remember correctly, not counting other broadway that could have us fearing top set; if villian will only press forward when his set hits and fold otherwise (which is our read), what are we hoping to accomplish when we call preflop?

[BankItDrew]

If we are folding the set vs. this player, we should be folding preflop.

You're joking right? You do understand the difference between 1 out with one card to come vs. 2 outs with 3 cards on the flop, right?

Of course. However, I also understand we are considering folding a set, which is close to the best case scenario with our hand, against the threat of a higher set from this rock. 33% of flops will have an A or K if I remember correctly, not counting other broadway that could have us fearing top set; if villian will only press forward when his set hits and fold otherwise (which is our read), what are we hoping to accomplish when we call preflop?

flop a set while avoiding higher sets

[badgers]

if villian will only press forward when his set hits and fold otherwise (which is our read), what are we hoping to accomplish when we call preflop?

Getting our stack in/ a large portion of our stack in when villain has an overpair...

[badgers]

if villian will only press forward when his set hits and fold otherwise (which is our read), what are we hoping to accomplish when we call preflop?

also this is not my read this just happens to be a ridiculously bad board for me facing a very scary line.

[pokerfan]

its ok to fold on the turn cuz you are far from being commited. Just raise up a little bit on the flop, dude.

[Ltrain]

If we are folding the set vs. this player, we should be folding preflop.

You're joking right? You do understand the difference between 1 out with one card to come vs. 2 outs with 3 cards on the flop, right?

Of course. However, I also understand we are considering folding a set, which is close to the best case scenario with our hand, against the threat of a higher set from this rock. 33% of flops will have an A or K if I remember correctly, not counting other broadway that could have us fearing top set; if villian will only press forward when his set hits and fold otherwise (which is our read), what are we hoping to accomplish when we call preflop?

flop a set while avoiding higher sets

Of course, i.e. hoping he will stack of with an overpair as Badgers said. Now how often is that going to happen when our stated read is villian is a set hunting rock that will only continue with a higher set or fold, and will that frequency justify a call when we will fold our set to scarecards even when we hit?

[badgers]

i need to average like $30 profit when I hit a set to make calling pre ok. That is a reasonable goal and I woiuld expect to make more than that on average.

As I stated that is not my read at all it's just there is no overpair on an A high board.

[BankItDrew]

^^^^
too many questions in one sentence

good fold badge

[wufwugy]

not raising flop is omgbad. folding turn is bad

flop you must raise. you get no value out of letting him see a turn. his range consists of hands that will either improve a shitton or a tiny bit. you get zero extra value in any way from flatting. not to mention that his bet is tiny and you have a big hand. if you think you dont have a big hand on a drawy board that wont make really any decent second best hands here then pf is wrong.

turn fold is bad because you're underrepped, massively, there's a lot behind with pos (which makes it less likely that he's on the upper end of his range), and his line is crap if he has anything other than a straight (which also makes it less likely he's at the top end, even though he may be bad enough to do this with something other than QJ, but if he is then he is bad enough to do other stuff you dont think he'll do). call and see how he feels about his hand on the river.

[wufwugy]

man vs almost anybody this is a terrible fold. it just so happens that there are a handful of majorly robotic players that it seems like this isn't.

you make the mistake of looking at his line yet not your line. your line says FLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOAT so much its ridiculous. from his perspective he could just not want to get floated by this obvious float. he could easily have 77 or some shit here.

[wufwugy]

yeesh i really shouldnt post. i provide such insight

[Keilah]

Good insight but vs this guy I think you just talked yourself into losing more chips.

Badgers' read on him is correct IMO.

[pokerfan]

i fuck my life if i fail to build a pot with set.

[badgers]

ok thanks a lot for the insight wufwugy. I felt that his range was more polarized to really strong hands that had me crushed and weak hands that would fold to a raise once he bet the flop so small. I guess since the bet was so small that makes me reeeaaally likely to float and therefore the turn becomes more difficult, however as keilah said I don't think this particular player would be that tricky...

I dunno, maybe I should start raising these flops again but there are many cases in which that is wrong. I need to think about it some more, thanks anyway nice posts.

[wufwugy]

his small bet can very easily be a draw, but it will also be the nuts too. still raise is best. defaulting, fast play is better than slow.

i have seen incredibly robotic players do occasionally weird things, i have seen only one that i dont think does, but limited sample size. a very important key here is that the pot is still small. you cant fold turn due to how it went down and pot size. its not even 100bb yet and you have a set. wtf fold??? you dont have to come over the top, but you can call. even tho i dont like folding river because i do my best to not fold big hands, part of this is garnered image, but i can fold river. he can be bluffing turn, but not if he shoves river. its that simple.

plus like i said, he's bluffing more than you think because as a 10/9 he should know that checking the turn with a big hand is bad. he may not know that tho, but if he doesn't know that then he qualifies as a bad player and folding a set in a sub 100bb pot is wrong