200NL - Worst river possible

[XTR1000]

32/3/2.7 villian who doesnt like to fold once he caught a piece on the board

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
8 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($71.80)
Hero ($203.65)
MP1 ($99.00)
MP2 ($241.50)
CO ($203.00)
BTN ($107.35)
SB ($49.10)
BB ($41.05)

Pre-flop: ($3, 8 players) Hero is UTG 1
1 fold, Hero raises to $8, 1 fold, MP2 calls $8, 4 folds

Flop: ($19, 2 players)
Hero bets $12, MP2 calls $12

Turn: ($43, 2 players)
Hero bets $38, MP2 calls $38

River: ($119, 2 players)

[d0zer]

As tempted as I am to try and extract value from this station & pray he's got 2pr or something...I probably c/c anything up to $60, & fold to a PSB.

[badgers]

c/f. if he was drawing he got there and if he has a worse made hand he's going to check behind.

[ATOTHEC101]

agree with badgers, check fold unless he makes a small bet which we can profitably call.

[davekp2003]

I'm not experienced at this level but any chance he has AJ or A9?

At lower levels I'd be betting out on the river.

[BankItDrew]

This is the perfect time to throw out a blocking bet. Bet the same amount as on the turn. Fold to any raise.

[d0zer]

if he has a worse made hand he's going to check behind.

V's AF is pretty high for someone who appears to be a preflop station. High enough to weak-bluff this scary river, or tard-bet TP/2pr/set.

...you king of the nits

[badgers]

if he has a worse made hand he's going to check behind.

V's AF is pretty high for someone who appears to be a preflop station. High enough to weak-bluff this scary river, or tard-bet TP/2pr/set.

...you king of the nits

checking behind will not affect his aggression factor. I think drews line may be better though (patented bankitdrew U-turn)

[BankItDrew]

patented bankitdrew U-turn

wha?

[badgers]

You see how easily convinced I am?

I pride myself on not being stubborn.

[d0zer]

If he's got that high of an AF, is he really calling with worse here? I think he's more likely to bet worse than he is to call worse.

I also think there's a fair chance that he's the kind of villain who will make weaker bluffs & pot v-bet the river with a solid hand.

[wufwugy]

omg that is not high af, and even if it is it doen'st matter since you gotta has a hudge sample for it to.

bet river, get called by a jack or 2p and raised by better. cant c/f. c'mon, even the worst players will turn a made hand into a bluff here form time to time.

[XTR1000]

I lead river for 75, good/bad/meh?

[d0zer]

omg that is not high af, and even if it is it doen'st matter since you gotta has a hudge sample for it to.

3ish is high for a station, no? They seem to usually have like 1 and under.

But yeah, unlikely we've got enough hands for a solid AF read.

is b/f really better than c/c here?

[wufwugy]

id lead for less, but 75 is totally fine

and AF needs a huge sample like i said, and even then AF doesn't tell much.

b/f is better than c/c because hes a station.

rule of thumb: if worse calls, bet

[Deanglow]

I would rather open fold and type "lol donkaments in the chat" than bet/fold. c/f is the best line imo

[d0zer]

shoulda gone with my gut

[badgers]

ok now i'm confused

[d0zer]

Ok I change my mind. I like c/c better still

[BankItDrew]

Here's why I think betting the river is best... 2 situations:

1) We are ahead. blocking bet means we make the most out of our set when weaker hands call.
2) We are behind. blocking bet means that we control how much more we are willing to lose.

Check calling leaves us with a hard decision every time. Especially when the calling amount is almost always more than what a blocking bet would be.

check folding is out of the question because that river is a scare card just as often for our villain as it is for us.

Bet $40. hand over. move onto the next.

[wufwugy]

drews right. c/c is however the second best option. betting 75 makes is harder to fold to a raise, but imo 40 is a wee too small. actually it isn't vs this opponent, but vs a good one it is. i personally dont like block bets at all if it means reducing bet sizing, but i do like blocking for that purpose partly.

c/c is second best because it does pick off bluffs, but vs this villain b/f is still best since he's more on the stationy side than the bluffy side.

[deleo]

bet 20-30 as blocking bet, to reraise just fold