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Ok, so I spend an hour or two observing one of these at a time and doing a little experiment. I wanted to see what place you would get if you just folded everything and hypothetically didn't win anything.
What i did was a just started an imaginary balance at 300, and started in the BB position, subtracting the blinds every time it came around the the original BB (whoever was BB in the first hand). If the original BB got knocked out, I shifted to the person to the right of him.
Since I started with the BB, the balance of 300 was instantly taken to 270, then 255 after the SB. If I had started with the button, I'm sure this would have been different (and I might try it starting with the button, but not tonight.)
I was planning to do 30, but it got quite boring AND the results were so similar that I decided to stop after 9. These are from the $3.50 + $0.30 ones. Here are the results I got:
Hands lasted: The number of hands before the imaginary player got knocked out of the SnG. This includes the hand where the imaginary player is knocked out.
Placed: When the imaginary player is knocked out, this is the place that they would have gotten. This is like if someone who was really at the table had been knocked out in the same hand, the place they would have gotten.
- Hands Lasted: 23 Placed: 6th
- Hands Lasted: 22 Placed: 4th
- Hands Lasted: 23 Placed: 4th
- Hands Lasted: 21 Placed: 5th
- Hands Lasted: 26 Placed: 5th
- Hands Lasted: 23 Placed: 4th
- Hands Lasted: 27 Placed: 4th
- Hands Lasted: 24 Placed: 4th
- Hands Lasted: 20 Placed: 5th
As you can obviously see, if you just folded everything you were dealt, you would consistently be the one that burst the bubble. Now imagine if you got just one good hand and doubled up. You would probably make it ITM. If you double up early on, just sit there and watch everyone else knock themselves out, unless you get a monster of course. This little test has convinced me that after I build up my Bankroll a little to contribute towards variance in these, I'm definitely moving to these as the main SnG I play.
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