$16 three handed JJ

[kstarm]

Wasn't sure about this one. goon is something like 17 /3 so far throughout the tourney and pretty passive even three handed. rog is something like 55/? he plays a lot of hands. Can I lay this down?



PokerStars Game #17992021456: Tournament #91283500, $15+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (200/400) - 2008/06/08 - 01:49:47 (ET)
Table '91283500 1' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 4: goonthree (3851 in chips)
Seat 5: rognutt (5657 in chips)
Seat 6: kstarm (3992 in chips)
goonthree: posts the ante 25
rognutt: posts the ante 25
kstarm: posts the ante 25
rognutt: posts small blind 200
kstarm: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to kstarm [Jd Jh]
goonthree: raises 800 to 1200
rognutt: raises 4432 to 5632 and is all-in
kstarm: ?

[mukaka]

Depends on the ranges but if goon is really passive like you said then you can fold here I guess..

[Fnord]

I see no reason to gamble here.

[TLR]

Unless either villian is extremly tight I call this

[Fnord]

What's the ICM on this?

[TLR]

It is a very tricky hand for ICM (i.e. requires tons of calculations and FE assumptions) , I may give it a shot later

[taipan168]

What's the ICM on this?

I ran this in SNG Wiz, with the following assumptions:
- Button raises with 12% (44+, A9o+, A7s+, KJs+) and calls a shove with 4% (TT+, AQ+)
- SB shoves over with 10% (55+, ATo+, A8s+, KQs)
- Button calls two shoves with 4% (TT+, AQ+) and one shove with 6% (88+, AQo+, ATs+)

...and calling was +1.0% EV, making it an easy call. Both players would have to be significantly tighter than this to make this a bad call.

[TLR]

You have 2 different ranges of button calling a shove, which one did you use ?

[taipan168]

You have 2 different ranges of button calling a shove, which one did you use ?

Sorry, I fixed it - Button calls one shove with 6% and two shoves with 4%.

[bjsaust]

But, this is 3 handed?

Needs better read than 17/3, but most people open up a lot OTB 3-handed, and SB sounds like a drooler. I cant find any reason to fold here.

[mcdonough22]

I dont fold JJ 3handed, like, ever...

[GatorJH]

What's the ICM on this?

I ran this in SNG Wiz, with the following assumptions:
- Button raises with 12% (44+, A9o+, A7s+, KJs+) and calls a shove with 4% (TT+, AQ+)
- SB shoves over with 10% (55+, ATo+, A8s+, KQs)
- Button calls two shoves with 4% (TT+, AQ+) and one shove with 6% (88+, AQo+, ATs+)

...and calling was +1.0% EV, making it an easy call. Both players would have to be significantly tighter than this to make this a bad call.

I don't think button calls two shoves with anything but QQ+. With that said I bet this is still a +ev call.