NFD + 2 Overs

[Ash256]

No reads. Note 120bb deep.

Please note why you chose what you chose - each option does different things to his range and I want to know what does what and what makes us money.

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
Hero ($59.20)
UTG+1 ($75.14)
CO ($45.00)
BTN ($116.77)
SB ($52.35)
BB ($34.58)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 6 players) Hero is UTG
Hero raises to $2, 1 fold, CO calls $2, BTN calls $2, 2 folds

Flop: ($6.75, 3 players)
Hero bets $5.25, 1 fold, BTN raises to $12

[bjsaust]

Hi. Any reads?

[Ash256]

2 orbits, hadn't noticed anything about him.

[gametight]

No reads, I call.

[thizzSantaCruz]

push. you are a favorite usually. he rarely ever has a set, he can fold his 9 or maybe even TT.

This is pretty opponent dependant but without reads I try to get it in right now. If you 3ball your shoving any turn. I don't like just calling and being OOP if we do make our flush. Our equity is going to be good enough vs his range to make a shove +EV especially if we have FE. So I'd either shove or 3ball it either way your getting it in.

The reason this is opponent dependent is that if our opponent is a total station we can just call, hit, profit. If he's a good reg though we wanna just shove w/ FE + a great equity for almost any range. Thats my take on it. Versus an unknown I 3bet/call or 3bet then shove any turn.

[DJJunkPauds]

No reads, wahhh, etc, but: I just call, it keeps so much stuff we beat/are flipping against/nearly flipping against in. This is an estimate, if I went crazy with math I might well change my answer, and it's 3:42 AM, so I can't be bothered right now. I think if we shove we have some fold equity, but not a huge amount, and are looking at about 30% equity when he does call. I rule out 3betting because if he calls we are all in dark for the turn, and our money goes in with half the equity a lot of the time. Don't even know what CiB stands for, so maybe I do that.

It feels nearly close, and I guesstimate both shoving and calling are +ev.

[bjsaust]

No reads I'd shove it in. FE + 54% equity against a lot of his range. I prefer it with the Ac though.

[kmind]

you want to play this draw aggressively imo

[Ragnar4]

Here's my problem... Being so deep, with a relatively small pot at this point, and having only one truly clean over IMO with the other one being dominated a good portion of the time, I don't think FE+draw odds % = %Chips you're sending into the stack and thus is -ev. Slightly.

By 3balling to 25, you call a shove as +ev.

The reason I'm thinking this, is imagine that shoving with hand as played you get all of your chips in at 1 penny -ev. But by 3balling to 25, you get 25 of your chips in as 1penny(per dollar) -ev but get the rest of your cash in as 5 or even 7 penny(per dollar) + ev, which makes up for the 25 pennies you put in negatively, and then some.

make sense?

again, this is a concept I've been working on for a long time... sooo I may be wrong because it's one I've developed on my own.

[bjsaust]

Wait. Which over do you think is dominated?

Compare your equity on the turn if you brick it.

[grnydrowave2]

If you have decent equity against a range, and you think there is some fold equity, be inclined to bet/shove.

If you have 20% equity or better on the flop and there's fold equity, be inclined to bet/shove.

A semantic that often confuses me is whether or not people are referring to fold equity as it is traditionally defined, or whether they're just talking about the % of the time the opponent folds. Either way, I think this is an ideal spot to shove.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 19.470% 19.47% 00.00% 1542 0.00 { KcQc }
Hand 1: 80.530% 80.53% 00.00% 6378 0.00 { AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.556% 25.56% 00.00% 2277 0.00 { KcQc }
Hand 1: 74.444% 74.44% 00.00% 6633 0.00 { 99, 44-33 }

These are our worst case scenarios (I'm discounting KK+ due to preflop action). We have a ton of fold equity against both ranges. However, our opponent will pretty much always call in the latter case, and will often fold in the former.

The question here is how often we need our opponent to fold the combined ranges to make a shove +EV. I don't know how to calculate this, but I suspect that it's not very much. Perhaps less than 50%. There is 50bb dead money in the pot.

It would be helpful to have reads, but it's reasonable to assume that most opponents are capable of minraising with a broader range than the one outlined above (much of which he should be folding). We have positive equity against virtually all other holdings. This obviously makes shoving even more +EV.

Then again, I might just favor this line because I suck post-flop and the thought of calling the flop and facing a difficult decision on a blank turn makes me uncomfortable.

[Ragnar4]

Wait. Which over do you think is dominated?

Compare your equity on the turn if you brick it.

LoL nothing about the thought process just :which over is dominated?

I think the Q may be dominated. A smoothcall with AQ is not out of the question here. Or QQ.

[Ragnar4]

Wait. Which over do you think is dominated?

Compare your equity on the turn if you brick it.

LoL nothing about the thought process just :which over is dominated?

I think the Q may be dominated. A smoothcall with AQ is not out of the question here. Or QQ.

[bode]

i hate calling here OOP because our equity sucks when we brick the turn. i think 3balling to 25ish is by far the best play, and if were talking about FE, kinda looks stronger than shoving. Actually, maybe a $28 bet does this better.

[bode]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 19.470% 19.47% 00.00% 1542 0.00 { KcQc }
Hand 1: 80.530% 80.53% 00.00% 6378 0.00 { AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.556% 25.56% 00.00% 2277 0.00 { KcQc }
Hand 1: 74.444% 74.44% 00.00% 6633 0.00 { 99, 44-33 }

These are our worst case scenarios (I'm discounting KK+ due to preflop action). We have a ton of fold equity against both ranges. However, our opponent will pretty much always call in the latter case, and will often fold in the former.

wat

[grnydrowave2]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 19.470% 19.47% 00.00% 1542 0.00 { KcQc }
Hand 1: 80.530% 80.53% 00.00% 6378 0.00 { AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.556% 25.56% 00.00% 2277 0.00 { KcQc }
Hand 1: 74.444% 74.44% 00.00% 6633 0.00 { 99, 44-33 }

These are our worst case scenarios (I'm discounting KK+ due to preflop action). We have a ton of fold equity against both ranges. However, our opponent will pretty much always call in the latter case, and will often fold in the former.

wat

I touched on this in the first sentence. Fold equity is not our opponents likelihood of folding. It is how much equity we gain IF our opponent folds. So, if our opponent folds a set, we gain alot of equity. Obviously, that is extremely unlikely. Interestingly, we gain about the same amount of equity if our opponent folds the nut flush draw, which he is much more likely to do.

It's confusing because so many people seem to misuse the term. When ISF was talking about fold equity I think he meant folding %.

Can we just call that fold incentive from now on? Pretty please?

Edit: I think I might be wrong about the definition of fold equity. I'm so very confused.

[bjsaust]

Wait. Which over do you think is dominated?

Compare your equity on the turn if you brick it.

LoL nothing about the thought process just :which over is dominated?

I think the Q may be dominated. A smoothcall with AQ is not out of the question here. Or QQ.

Your thought process didnt make much sense. If I understood it I think you confused some things, but perhaps I didnt. Maybe it was a good point but you couldnt articulate it well. AQo is very unlikely to call a shove here unless villain is the worst player in the world. QQ maybe, but fairly unlikely to flat PF. Its a fairly small range to use to assume our overs aren't good.

[bjsaust]

Us tourney donks use the term fold equity to mean the chance villain folds. I hadnt heard the other definition before.

[Silly String]

I like the b/3b, but to more than $25. $25 gives him the illusion of FE vs your play thereby inducing more shoves. I would actually prefer to use my fold equity or fold incentive (yw, grnydrowave2) here to pick up the pot. I would pop him to $35 to dispel the illusion that I might fold to a shove. With a set I would probably do the opposite and hope the villain shoves over.

[pocketfours]

N-i-c-e Flush Draw?

Shove. With a Nut FD calling will be better vs some opponents (the kind that give you less FE but good IO).