T9s crushes the board and gets played back at (boring)

[Fnord]

A little history here. Opponent is umpa21 who's a pretty ABC tagg who gives his hand strength away too easily post-flop. The fish at this table are pretty loose pre-flop and tight post-flop, so I've been able to float around a bit and win a couple pots on flop bets without showdown.

Anyway, he tanked hard to my bet, then put out a by-the-book 3x raise to test me here. I think he thinks I'm full of shit and I think he would have bet out a big pair. I not only have the draws covered, I also have showdown value, do I try to get him to spew off or just get all the money in g00t?

I'm probably over-thinking this...

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($199.15)
UTG+1 ($197.00)
CO ($66.60)
BTN ($49.55)
SB ($261.00)
Hero ($206.75)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is BB
2 folds, CO calls $2, 1 fold, SB raises to $8, Hero calls $6, CO calls $6

Flop: ($24, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $20, 1 fold, SB tanks.... raises to $60

[cardsman1992]

Even if he thinks you are FOS, he's gotta give some credence to your lead with the CO still behind. However, too many cards kill your action, and if he thinks you are FOS then he has to put you on a draw or a A9ish type hand. I use what FE I have to go with my 12-15ish outs and shove.

[freechus9]

Definitely just call. 3-betting is going to fold out AA/KK type hands, and it's unlikely he has a draw (AhKh only hand that comes to mind). I think the best way to pick his pockets is to call/shove a turn over his 2nd barrel.

[cardsman1992]

If a draw comes in, he doesn't second barrel? Almost 30% of the time that would happen.

[pankfish]

Let's go ahead and gamble here. Our equity goes down a ton on the turn when we brick, and when we hit the action dies. He folds his bare overs to us here but that isn't going to be the worst thing.

[freechus9]

But villain folds > 80% if we shove..

[will641]

i think the bottom of his range is NFD. its strange that he would go for a c/r on that board with a set, but thats almost what you have to put him on.

[ATOTHEC101]

freechus, were only a slight fav against a big pair so getting a big pair to fold is a + ev move with all the money already in the pot. If we just call, and the turn bricks with him betting big again we can almost gurantee were crushed and we wont have enough fold equity on the turn so well end up getting our money in a 65/ 35 underdog which is rather bad. Whilst if we do whack the turn he shuts down and we dont get any more monies...Thus shoving the flop is the best move with him calling or folding both being good for us.

[freechus9]

Oh shit misread hand. Thought the 9 was an 8

[IowaSkinsFan]

Just get it in he's never folding. I really don't think there is any bluffing frequency here besides with fd's.

[zook]

Just get it in

[Fnord]

Just get it in he's never folding.

O RLY? Even given what I think he thinks?

[Silly String]

This is a standard b/3bet for me, but I call and take your chances given your read. If he's really on a bluff, he has to follow up the CR with a turn lead and you make the max. I sure hate to see a turned 5, T, or A though. I think you can still call almost any turn bet except an overbet or push. You should still have 25% to 30% equity and can call 3/4 PSB's w/ implied odds due to his bet committing himself to your river push when you hit.
Finally, calling his turn bet puts him in the most uncomfortable spot unless he lucked into a monster and that will keep him from playing back at you in the future or push him closer to TILT. I love when the villain to my right is tilting and "gonna get me." Either way it's +EV!

[Genitruc]

he's got a big hand more than you think here

get it in and gambool

[Genitruc]

ya if you think he thinks you're FOS then this is a great line to take with an overpair since you'll bet air/crap quite a bit when checked to and it allows him to get more money in on the flop with a hand like black QQ that will hate lots of turns.

also it allows him to earn himself a lot of free cards with marginal holdings in later bVb wars vs you.

[nutsinho]

if hes somehow on a complete bluff, theres almost no way for him to think he can continue if you call flop. I would just raise to 110 and call a shove

[Irisheyes]

I think his bluffing frequency is way lower than you think in this spot.

[Fnord]

I kept it simple, shoved and he insta-folded.